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AWD delivery thread

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The flip side here is if we believe what they have said publicly, they were not expecting such a surge in the AWD numbers. By opening the configurator, Tesla can batch and produce what people are actually looking for.

It may seem unfair that people are "jumping the line", but if they hadn't opened it and the RWD version was still being produced at a 75%+ clip, we'd all be waiting longer and anyone with RWD would be able to hop into line.

It's definitely not perfect, and I totally get where people's frustration comes in - my car has a new thing go wrong with it each time I drive it, I'd like mine sooner than later - but I get their strategy, and it likely has sped up deliveries for us all, even if it doesn't seem fair.
I don’t think there was any surprise on the AWD interest or any increase in delivery speed, just increased confusion. Tesla could have created a simple way for us to give them our requests ahead of an order beyond the 3 boxes (LR-RWD,AWD,SR) if that was a concern. What changed is that we learned the tax credit timetable and people opened their pockets to LR due to Tesla’s delay of SR. It factored into my buying decision. At the same time they opened the floodgates to show investors that they had real customers, not just reservations. That, or it was an accident and they couldn’t back track after that. Either way, now the poor IDA’s, formerly ISA’s, need to manage 4-6 months worth of customers with the same team that was barely hanging on with 2-4 weeks of customers bugging them for info. I try not to call cause I feel bad for them and know we need them for this to work out.
 
That's really good J! I was thinking more a bar chart time series, but... I entered my data a third time. Here's a question. I am in CT (NE CT) I thought I'd be serviced through Dedham MA, an hour away. Nope, Mt Kisco, NY, 2 1/2 hrs away. So you ask location, last field on entry and whatever the other earlier entry was which I took as delivery point. Is there a meaning to each eluding me? Thanks for doing that btw...nice work!!

You're welcome!

I'm not really sure what you're asking. If you're asking why so many dates are prompted for, I didn't create the file or the import form, so I can't comment. The import form unfortunately doesn't seem to have error-checking, so some people are putting in invalid dates (like reserving before 2016-03-31, which I find using routines after the fact and correct / delete.

As for Location and Place, the former is a pick list that corresponds to regions (i.e. States and Procinves) which Google Sheets can automatically map. The Place field is optional and is for city or anything else.

Hope this helps!
 
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Aren’t all these numbers just too low to be statistically significant?

We're over 800 records all entered in the last month - that's not a trivial amount. I'll leave it to the trained statisticians what the accuracy is.

If nothing else, it allows people to say "hey, someone with my config / location / reservation date got a car!!! There's hope!" That was the intention, and also to provide data to counter those who made sweeping generalizations like "all the cars are going to Canada", etc. ;)
 
Non owner
reserved 4/1/16 @9am,
first ordered on 6/27,
updated to white interior the day it became available.
8/20 email and mytesla allowed me to apply for loan
8/21 loan approved, tsla rep called - set for delivery Sept 3rd (Labor Day) in Bellevue WA
AWD Pearl white/Aeros/white/eap.

stoked! happened way faster than I thought. Need to get that powerwall installed NOW.
 
I don’t think there was any surprise on the AWD interest or any increase in delivery speed, just increased confusion. Tesla could have created a simple way for us to give them our requests ahead of an order beyond the 3 boxes (LR-RWD,AWD,SR) if that was a concern. What changed is that we learned the tax credit timetable and people opened their pockets to LR due to Tesla’s delay of SR. It factored into my buying decision. At the same time they opened the floodgates to show investors that they had real customers, not just reservations. That, or it was an accident and they couldn’t back track after that. Either way, now the poor IDA’s, formerly ISA’s, need to manage 4-6 months worth of customers with the same team that was barely hanging on with 2-4 weeks of customers bugging them for info. I try not to call cause I feel bad for them and know we need them for this to work out.

I disagree. On the earnings call, someone I forget who said that the pick up rates for AWD was significantly higher than they expected. The increase in delivery speed was simply because of the ramp, made even more significant due to the delayed deliveries at the end of Q2.

As for them finding another way to get requests, it's definitely not that simple. In one of my hobbies, short run replacement parts are the norm. The manufacturers used to do interest surveys to remake parts for, and it was a mess. They would sometimes end up making and having an extra 250 parts that no one was buying, and other times would sell out immediately with people complaining they didn't get a chance to order.

They changed that to a system where you paid a deposit to secure your reservation. The system got far better, with less overages and quicker parts being made.

How I see this having happened, Tesla figured they had produced enough RWD to mostly satisfy demand. They had a guess about how many AWD cars would be ordered, and we're surprised to see the pick up rate as high as it was.

I think if they had to do it again, they would have waited to open AWD to everyone, but knowing demand and having people who have committed by putting down money on their specific configuration will help for part ordering and delivery. I am a later reservation, but I figured based on my configuration date and time I'd have my car relatively soon. As of this point, I don't think I was right, but I have seen people who reserved my identical car after me get them, and while I'd totally like my car last month, I think I'll get it as soon as possible. The AWD VIN thing is filling up with people that are getting them. Ours have to come soon.
 
I disagree. On the earnings call, someone I forget who said that the pick up rates for AWD was significantly higher than they expected. The increase in delivery speed was simply because of the ramp, made even more significant due to the delayed deliveries at the end of Q2.

As for them finding another way to get requests, it's definitely not that simple. In one of my hobbies, short run replacement parts are the norm. The manufacturers used to do interest surveys to remake parts for, and it was a mess. They would sometimes end up making and having an extra 250 parts that no one was buying, and other times would sell out immediately with people complaining they didn't get a chance to order.

They changed that to a system where you paid a deposit to secure your reservation. The system got far better, with less overages and quicker parts being made.

How I see this having happened, Tesla figured they had produced enough RWD to mostly satisfy demand. They had a guess about how many AWD cars would be ordered, and we're surprised to see the pick up rate as high as it was.

I think if they had to do it again, they would have waited to open AWD to everyone, but knowing demand and having people who have committed by putting down money on their specific configuration will help for part ordering and delivery. I am a later reservation, but I figured based on my configuration date and time I'd have my car relatively soon. As of this point, I don't think I was right, but I have seen people who reserved my identical car after me get them, and while I'd totally like my car last month, I think I'll get it as soon as possible. The AWD VIN thing is filling up with people that are getting them. Ours have to come soon.
I get what you’re saying and as someone who has worked in making both automobiles and now 15 years of consumer products, I totally understand how a few pieces of a product can totally mess up your production schedule. That said, in this case they are making 1 single model of car. The difference car to car is literally close to 2% of the component list. If they didn’t have AWD motors, controllers, or wire harnesses, the production line would be at a stand still. It’s not, they are still building at good volumes, they just have 4 months worth of orders to fill and frustrated customers to make happy. I wasn’t frustrated till I started hearing that people who called, for no reason but to waste time of the IDA’s, were getting matched to cars, that sounds like working with a sales guy at a dealer. It encourages excessive call volume and damages the credibility of the reservation system. I worry for the company almost more than the car right now due to what I see as rogue entities within the company misbehaving. After all, if Tesla fails and gets bought by another company the whole vision will likely get seriously watered down and who knows where early adopters will land.
 
No, not all of them. I’ve seen multiple showroom cars in my area and some of them have the headlights flush on both sides. A few days ago I had a test drive in a Performance 3 and the headlights were perfectly flush.
@ecarfan you may be right, but they all look like this at the showrooms:

View attachment 327594
 
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I remember on the earnings call Elon saying that the AWD order numbers surprised them. We're feeling that surprise now. They ramped up RWD production, thinking that most people would buy one of those. But now they're sitting on a lot of RWDs that nobody has reserved, or ordered.

So (probably a few weeks before the earnings call) they started scrambling to get AWD production ramped. Hopefully we're nearing the end of the ramp and it'll be all gravy from here!

I'm actually surprised that they were surprised. The Model 3 is straight up early-adopter fodder. Early adopters never want the cheapest one. They want the best one. I would have been prioritizing P3D, then AWD, then RWD.
 
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We're over 800 records all entered in the last month - that's not a trivial amount. I'll leave it to the trained statisticians what the accuracy is.

If nothing else, it allows people to say "hey, someone with my config / location / reservation date got a car!!! There's hope!" That was the intention, and also to provide data to counter those who made sweeping generalizations like "all the cars are going to Canada", etc. ;)

I'm speaking more per-state. Like, for DC to go from 100% fulfilled to 50% fulfilled, that's 1 car :). I don't think it's reasonable to compare states to each other with the numbers so low. Eventually, though...

It's still useful either way!
 
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What changed is that we learned the tax credit timetable and people opened their pockets to LR due to Tesla’s delay of SR. It factored into my buying decision.

I think you are spot on with that statement. My sister and I both resemble that remark. We were both going to wait for SR but without the tax credit it's a difference of $1500 so we both changed to AWD LR. The more I talk with other res holders, the more I am hearing the same logic from them also.
 
Wait, so it doesn't say "Dual Motor," it says "AWD" and the P3Ds get "AWD" with an underline?

No it says "dual motor". People are just mixing their terminology up. The non-P versions are missing the red underline. Personally I think the badge is a gimmicky way of saying "I spent more money to get a faster car"... I was kind of happy with Tesla's initial decision to ditch the badging on the 3 completely.

Tesla-Dual-Motor-badge1.jpg
 
Any
No it says "dual motor". People are just mixing their terminology up. The non-P versions are missing the red underline. Personally I think the badge is a gimmicky way of saying "I spent more money to get a faster car"... I was kind of happy with Tesla's initial decision to ditch the badging on the 3 completely.

Tesla-Dual-Motor-badge1.jpg
In CA, if you are in an area like Tahoe the CHP will look at the back of a Model S for a "D" to allow you to pass without chains. Also, even cheap cars have model badges, SE. LE. LX, AWD, 4WD, etc etc.
 
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