There’s a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (all warranted, I get it) about the delivery order here. Maybe we can shed some light on what’s going on by thinking about the problem from Tesla’s point of view.
If what we’ve heard is true that they’ve at least temporarily stopped prioritizing based on reservation/order date, are batch manufacturing, and batch delivering to locales to maximize profit before the end of the quarter, then it stands to reason that your delivery timetable is currently based on two factors:
1. The number of orders in your locale with the same or very similar configuration
2. That your mix of #1 + relative logistical ease of delivery is more advantageous than another locale
If they make a batch of White / AWD / 19” Tires / Black Interior tomorrow, their goal would be to find the most logistically beneficial locale with a minimum number of orders of that configuration. They load up a transport, contact those with orders to prepare for delivery, and then assign one of the VINs from the shipment. Done. Next batch on deck.
If you look at it with that lens, it’s easy to see that the Fremont event last weekend was exactly as described above, albeit with less transport logistics involved (across town rather than across state lines = even more efficiency).
I looked at the data in the tracker to see if this could be verified, but the sample sizes and disparity in configurations in single locales make it almost impossible to find the pattern.
tl;dr - The tendency here lately has been to believe that there is no order to any of this, but it is far more likely that we don’t have enough data to see the pattern and it is actually about how many likeminded individuals with the same configuration are in your area.