I had contacted him about updating my insurance info. When he got back to me, this time it was the next day, he let me know that I had a VIN. Then about an hour later he texted me that my car had finished production that morning and asked if I wanted to take delivery this weekend instead of 9/23. I said yes and now I’m scheduled for 9/15. He had previously told me that they are now scheduling deliveries first and assigning vins much closer to the delivery date. I think since he was reviewing my account he noticed I had a vin and financing completed, and that’s what prompted my option for earlier delivery.
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AWD delivery thread
- Thread starter Ghostrider
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I had contacted him about updating my insurance info. When he got back to me, this time it was the next day, he let me know that I had a VIN. Then about an hour later he texted me that my car had finished production that morning and asked if I wanted to take delivery this weekend instead of 9/23. I said yes and now I’m scheduled for 9/15. He had previously told me that they are now scheduling deliveries first and assigning vins much closer to the delivery date. I think since he was reviewing my account he noticed I had a vin and financing completed, and that’s what prompted my option for earlier delivery.
Got mvpa with vin (1005xx), one day after second DSA's contact. So now it looks like the web has everything necessary except (still) for the appointment date, and status is still is stuck at "schedule delivery", but i think it is immaterial. Delivery date is in the MVPA so it should be enough. All looks good for now.
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That is probably correct take on what is going on! TSLA is very good at disclosing information when it is suitable for them. They are an IT or auto company?!
I would also say that the complexity for figuring this kind of problem out (think backpack problem) is non trivial but to assume that it is random or stupid is probably short-sighted. Supply chain complexity for the delivery side is most certainly easier than the one for incoming parts? I am sure some of the production is constrained by supply side.
As others have pointed out, I should expect to see more/faster deliveries for more expensive (read profitable) configuration such EAP (interesting that we are not seeing that). We should also expect to see more deliveries around Fremont factory as we approach the end of Q3. It is only logical. Of course, no firm wants to own up to the fact that it is putting its profits ahead of customer service/priority, environmental impacts, etc. However, it is obvious to assume that TSLA would be doing it. Just thinking out loud.
It is cash that goes straight towards the TSLA profit line for a few people who did not order from the get go.
Something I'll add, for the sake of those unfamiliar.
Teslanomics | Decoding Data Behind Tesla - Teslanomics has a wealth of very knowledgable information on Teslas, Model 3s, Model Ss etc. Ben Sullins is the guy. He's been doing this for years and seriously knows his...stuff.
Tesla is telling anyone that will listen they are processing in date of $2500 submission (99% date of configuration) sequence. Within that reservations get priority. For those knowing how to do multiple regression analysis...have at it. Actually, linear regression would work as well but with multiple regression you can add in margin or some facsimile of margin, EAP/FSD as that is 100% margin. And/or...include reservation date. My hypothesis is a higher correlation will occur with config date.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
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jkirkwood001
Active Member
Wait - I think you're saying they'll have too much demand. With respect, there are bigger problems that will kill a company than having too much demand. They'll always make money as long as they have demand (assuming they can build and at least break even). Better that than the reverse (film camera for sale, anyone?). The 3/4 of the world that can't buy any Model 3 yet haven't "killed" Tesla.
It's been decades since I've done that level of statistical analysis and, at that, long before spreadsheets and Excel/LibreOffice/OLE/DDE/COM etc. To answer your question no, that's not really what I had in mind. I think the chart you did with the big bubble on the left and, what I'll call, noise after that using reserve date was wrong. Not that what you did was, in any way, wrong. It was statistically insignificant (my hypothesis). If, however, you used config date I believe it would correlate better. What separates multiple regression from linear regression is one can add other independent variables such as EAP or FSD. I believe the macro is linest() in spreadsheets but I suspect what it would do is just give you a number representing significance of the independent variable to the dependent variable. A sure sign of age, I'm having a hard time coming up with what the dependent variable is. This is something Ben Sullins excels at data science. There is a flaw using reservation date as they were queued from 3/31/16 or earlier to June 18? When they were producing a few hundred a week that's nothing compared to 5500/wk. So if one came up with a 'best fit' line...but line for what? Again, no obvious dependent variable. I think I'll review examples maybe on Kahn Academy for statistical analysis.
Null hypothesis 1 - no correlation between config date delivery date
Null hypothesis 2 - presence of EAP (FSD requires EAP) is irrelevant to delivery date distance from config date.
Is that helpful? BTW, thank you for your work on this.
When I was at Monster.com they had years worth of query data. I scienced the sugar out of that. Talk about big data and data mining!
OK, first off, first name here is Walt. I'm guessing you're either John, Joe, James, Jim or, not being a MCP, Joy, Judy, Janet. Beside the point I suppose. No, not too much much demand, too little capacity. Roadster, S, X were 'boutique' cars catering to very high disposable income people. Their infrastructure was geared to supply customers in a reasonable fashion a car. If there was a 4 fold increase in demand from pre M3 to M3 I predict there will be a 4 fold increase in pre Tesla people's car to stripped down model 3. I was going to say Volker Wagen but figured it would lose people.
In this forum there is something of an echo chamber, but it seems many people are between miffed and very upset. multiply that by 4 and that would hurt EPS.
PSA: Make sure you call your delivery center to get an update on the location of your vehicle.
I had called them requesting no detail of my vehicle as I will be taking it to a detailing place shortly afterwards. He looked up my RN and stated that my vehicle was still at the rail station. I was scheduled for Sept 19 but he stated that it likely will not get in until Sept 27-28.
Looks like Tesla was trying to over estimate on the delivery dates. I'll be out of town so I won't be able to pick it up until beginning of October but JFYI before making plans. commitments, call them to ask.
I had called them requesting no detail of my vehicle as I will be taking it to a detailing place shortly afterwards. He looked up my RN and stated that my vehicle was still at the rail station. I was scheduled for Sept 19 but he stated that it likely will not get in until Sept 27-28.
Looks like Tesla was trying to over estimate on the delivery dates. I'll be out of town so I won't be able to pick it up until beginning of October but JFYI before making plans. commitments, call them to ask.
Yes, their goal was under promise and over deliver. Of course there are some who will vehemently disagree. However for those Sept to Nov ppl, many of us are taking delivery in month 1! I didn't even config white interior or PAWD.
As promised and to bring a little encouragement to those waiting - we picked up our new Tesla Model 3 at Dallas this morning - actually the appointment was at 10:30 am but we didn’t drive away until 12:30 - some of it was orientation but it took a while to finish the detailing. Very small pin prick damage to paint at the front which they promised to pay to have fixed but otherwise - this car is incredible and worth the wait.
Blue, RWD, EAP, Aeros - Ordered March 2018, Configured July, Financed August 5th, initial delivery scheduled August 28 but canceled and completed today Sep 13 - hang in there guys it’s real!
Blue, RWD, EAP, Aeros - Ordered March 2018, Configured July, Financed August 5th, initial delivery scheduled August 28 but canceled and completed today Sep 13 - hang in there guys it’s real!
Yes, Trisha it is good for me, and good for whomever gets my prior delivery appointment. I could’ve just gotten lucky or maybe the delivery scheduler just matched me to a vin earlier because I didn’t call and needlessly pester them just to check in every week like you claim to have done. Anyways, I was responding to a question and it wasn’t from you.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
That's awesome for you, congrats, recognize that this is AWD delivery thread and some have been waiting since making their $2500 deposit in late June.
@jkirkwood001 how about a simple bell curve showing mean of days between config and delivery. Significance of EAP or P or white interior could be standard T test.Thats where multr (like est) could come in, dependent variable would be config to delivery independent variables EAP, white interior, performance, 19" wheels. And there is what, about several hundred dollars data points?
RWD is from stock, yawn fest. I think it was Bloomberg that recently reported there were rwd cars in stock around the country.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
I'm familiar with regression analysis, but haven't done much. You have the data - feel free to take a stab!
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