Battery life - limited recharge cycles.

[scaesare]

To be clear on my earlier comment, I assumed the OP was concerned about this portion of the quote:

Current battery modules should last 300k to 500k miles (1500 cycles).

As if that implied that there's an imminent NEXT GEN battery module that will get more than that.... hence the "well early adopters got screwed" sentiment.

I don't think there's any significant "jump" in battery longevity right around the corner and that M3 buyers next week are gonna get new million-mile batteries.

He was just stating that as of right now, batteries last a darn long time. And when they do, you can replace them relatively inexpensively.

Will battery life improve? Of course... but I don't think there's any significant early-adopter penalty going on.

 

[cwerdna]

But you have to be careful of these fantastic stories of ICE cars that have gone 300,000 miles not needing anything but oil changes. Sure, maybe there's a few of them out there somewhere but that is not most peoples experience. Yet there are a lot of Internet myths about how inexpensive it is to run various models of ICE cars for 250,000 miles or more without ever even needing an engine accessory belt, etc., just an oil change every 10,000 miles. These stories inevitably come from people with either very bad memories or who are just making it up. Wait, who would make something like that up? I mean, it's the Internet!

And, on the flip side, you've got to examine people who make make some rather unbelievable claims about the reliability of their Teslas:
2017 Model 3 Reliability - "In six years of owning Tesla I have not been in for service. There is none." yet the omits stuff like bent frunk latch, door handles replaced, sagging door, charge port problem, something to make the balloon squeal go away, and taking the car in "about once a month".

How reliable is your Model S?

 

[StealthP3D]

And, on the flip side, you've got to examine people who make make some rather unbelievable claims about the reliability of their Teslas:
2017 Model 3 Reliability - "In six years of owning Tesla I have not been in for service. There is none." yet the omits stuff like bent frunk latch, door handles replaced, sagging door, charge port problem, something to make the balloon squeal go away, and taking the car in "about once a month".

How reliable is your Model S?

True - it goes both ways. But I see far more people exaggerating the reliability of gasoline cars. The fact is, using internal combustion is a crude way to make power and compressed organics and metal rubbing on metal discs is a crude way to slow down versus using electrons and magnetism to create propulsion and braking. There are simply far more parts to fail and those parts run at higher temperatures and get fouled by combustion by-products while brakes are constantly wearing out and creating toxic dust on your wheels and in your nice clean lungs (assuming you don't smoke a pack a day). Carbon collects on the valves, piston crowns and exhaust sensors making the engine run worse and pollute even more while getting worse economy. These combustion byproducts are corrosive to most metals and contaminate the oil. That's why you always have to drain the old contaminated oil and replace with fresh.

Those who try to make gasoline powered cars look like they are not expensive to run and problematic from a public health perspective look silly to most of us because most of us have owned a few gas cars and know people who have died an early death after a struggle with cancer or have serious respiratory issues and have spent a lot of money paying people to troubleshoot and replace failed components in gasoline cars. Yes, I know we were discussing direct running costs but the health issues dwarf those.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Yep, new owners get a brand new battery for free today.

I would say the odds of many people shelling out $5k-$7k for a new battery on a 300,000 mile car is pretty low. How many people buy new engines for a 300k mile cars? Much more likely that people would be using salvage batteries on a car that old.

Eh.... That depends. I dunno how comfortable I would feel about a battery from a car that was sitting in a yard for months or maybe more than a year. With that said, if the battery was discharged to ~60% and had sat in a climate controlled warehouse with periodic checks on it's SOC, that'd work.

 

[mspohr]

I very well know the difference. With enough anecdotes from a large enough sample size, you can at least point out trends. And, with a large enough sample size, you can arrive at conclusions that are statistically significant.

It seems you wish to ignore the large # of anecdotes and data because they don't fit your confirmation bias.

edit: Funny enough, while trying to look for an old quote, it seems I've had the same argument with you before: Fear of the 100,000 miles milestone...in a Tesla.

The plural of anecdote is not data.
Find some real data. Anecdotes are irrelevant.

 

[vickh]

Those are all anecdotes.
You need to learn the difference between anecdote and data.
(Pro Tip: The plural of anecdote is not data.)

Yep, The plural of anecdote is anecdotes

An anecdote is the worst enemy of an analyst

 

[StealthP3D]

Yep, The plural of anecdote is anecdotes

An anecdote is the worst enemy of an analyst

I agree. But what's worse is "20 anecdotes" that are not really 20 actual anecdotes.

People trying to make a point that is not supported by actual data just love anecdotes.

 

[StellarRat]

300,000 miles is 25 years of driving for average American. This battery replacement cost thing is way overblown. If any of us still our original M3s in 25 years they'll have saved so much money on fuel, maint. and car payments that the replacement will seem like a bargain. They will probably have a battery 1/4 the size that costs 1/5 the price and has more range. Tesla might not even exist then who knows?