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battery swapping confirmed - no more "mystery" announcement

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Why would anyone pay to swap out a battery when supercharging is much more convenient, free(!) and you don't have the stress of having to go and give the battery back?

This! I probably wouldn't swap packs if it were free, I would rather Supercharge.

To qualify for the max ZEV credit which requires "refueling" faster than supercharger can provide. I think its a marketing gimmick that doesn't get rolled out beyond a token few stations in California to qualify for that credit.

This is what I currently think but have some feelings that ...

To do what with? Tesla already has more credits than they can sell. Do you expect more ICE car manufacturers to enter into the CA market that they can sell to?

I don't know about how those credits are working, but Tesla would about double them with a battery swap system. Maybe Tesla installs 5M worth of battery swap stations. But nets 10M in credit sales. They could spend the next 5M on superchargers.


One question I still have is how does Tesla give you a 100% charged battery? Do they keep their swap batteries 100% charged all the time. If they do won't they degrade quickly? And if you really do swap packs, never to get yours back again, isn't that kind of a bad deal?
 
The point of this system is to allow people who bought current technology battery packs to have easy access to future technology battery packs. You are charged a small fee daily/weekly to get a newer battery pack at which point you can either charge it on your own time or swap it at no charge at swapping stations across the country. Once you are done with your road trip you go back to your original swapping station to receive your original pack. There will not be very many swapping stations, 20-30 available in a few years IMHO. I really do not see what is so hard to figure out about how this would work. It makes complete sense for Tesla to tell its customers that they will always be allowed to use the latest battery technology.
 
Elon just replied to someone on Twitter saying that the idea of battery swap is obvious but the technology is not.

What does he mean?

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The point of this system is to allow people who bought current technology battery packs to have easy access to future technology battery packs. You are charged a small fee daily/weekly to get a newer battery pack at which point you can either charge it on your own time or swap it at no charge at swapping stations across the country. Once you are done with your road trip you go back to your original swapping station to receive your original pack. There will not be very many swapping stations, 20-30 available in a few years IMHO. I really do not see what is so hard to figure out about how this would work. It makes complete sense for Tesla to tell its customers that they will always be allowed to use the latest battery technology.

Someone has to pay for those battery packs that are being swapped around. Tesla is not going to run that system as a charity.
So you need to decide how much you are willing to pay for a battery swap. Then Tesla has to figure out if it is worth spending a few hundred million dollars on a useful battery swap network around the USA, Europe and Asia. If users are not willing to pay for it, then I don't see it happening.

Personally, if there is a 120 kw Supercharger right next to the battery swap station, I would just use that for free while I get drinks, use the restroom, etc. If Battery Swaps cost anything at all, odds are that they won't be used much.
 
Elon just replied to someone on Twitter saying that the idea of battery swap is obvious but the technology is not.

What does he mean?

The part in quotes (many things allow battery swap) is referring to the SuperCharger announcement where he said that laptops, remote controls etc. all allow battery swap. So it's an obvious idea.

To the technology not being obvious it tells me that this is not a drive-through robotic swapper.

What else can it be?

How about a set of small wheels mounted to the bottom of the battery pack? (Ala Roomba. Roombattery?). So your battery pack drops out and goes and plugs itself in, and another battery drives up into its place and raises itself into place. That would allow for a significantly cheaper and mobile deployment and a fairly cheap retrofit.

Virtually any business can then become a swapper business if they just buy a battery & charger (even L2 charger is ok). It would thus satisfy the "throughout the country" part of the original tweet.


To satisfy the "Under your nose" part of the original description as well, you need a secondary battery. Also non-obvious technology.
 
A few thoughts on battery swapping:

* some of above posters, as well as quite a number in other threads over the past months, mention their distaste for their battery getting lost in the swap (and variants of same). MY thought regarding this over the years was to consider batteries to be fungible commodities: one never really owns a pack; it is more appropriate to think of it as a consumable material just like those 15 gallons of gasoline you used to pour in your vehicle. I know this is NOT how Tesla has operated up until now, but such a modus might be how EVs evolve.

* where might these myriad locations be? How could TM afford to foot the bill for so many? Well, two such names come to mind....their stock tickers are CHV and XOM. Lots of locations, lots of experience, and LOTS of money.
 
In regards to the "media team must hate him" and comparisons to Apple's PR machine and how they announce product innovations, I actually think this is all very planned. Yes, Tesla is Apple-like, but not an Apple clone. They are more like a Pear. Close, but not identical. To that point, they shouldn't be. Their products have a very different consideration and purchase cycle and also are a much more involved emotional jump than iPad to iPad Mini for the uninitiated and EV doubter. Simply, Tesla is more challenging than Apple has had to be since around 1984 and the first Macintosh.

I think these tweets and tips are all about owning the conversation and momentum. I am massively impressed with the finesse and skill that Tesla and Musk use with product announcements and hints via social media, especially Twitter, to drive interest.

Does all this help the stock price? Of course. Then again, any important or financially relevant product announcement from a public company will impact the stock price. To call it manipulation is a little far fetched in my mind. As CEO his job is also investor relations and driving a share price that improves cash flow. Tim Cook, Ginny Rometty and many other tech CEOs do the exact same thing all the time.

As to the implications of swapping as a use case, I'm not ready to pass judgement. If I've learned one thing in my five and a half year relationship with Tesla it is that they think about things in a very different way. They use disruption as a lever for progress. Thus, it is really hard to predict what they will do, or how they will leverage either new or existing technologies. The Tweets and other build up are also an effective manner of managing the fear, uncertainty and doubt that investors, owners and prospective owners hate.
 
Just a thought, but could this be a second, range extending battery that would bring the total range to around 400 miles (similar to an ICE car) while taking a trip? How much battery could fit in that cubby at the rear of the frunk? You would keep your own battery, but rent and swap the auxiliary one. Could be done quick and easy, and the small size would address the storage problem. Might also explain the "under your nose" comment.
 
To qualify for the max ZEV credit which requires "refueling" faster than supercharger can provide. I think its a marketing gimmick that doesn't get rolled out beyond a token few stations in California to qualify for that credit.
Tesla has already demonstrated Model S swapping to CARB (with a handful of highly trained techs) and already qualifies for the max credits. So this is not tax credit related. Also CARB is talking about removing swapping as a "fast refueling" tech for tax credit purposes.
 
Call me a doubter that may have to eat his words come Thursday night, but I would much rather see more superchargers...

What's wrong with a 20 minute break every 200 miles? We're really in that much of a hurry that 5 vs. 20 minutes matter when driving cross-country?
 
Just a thought, but could this be a second, range extending battery that would bring the total range to around 400 miles (similar to an ICE car) while taking a trip? How much battery could fit in that cubby at the rear of the frunk? You would keep your own battery, but rent and swap the auxiliary one. Could be done quick and easy, and the small size would address the storage problem. Might also explain the "under your nose" comment.
The challenge with this is that adding enough weight to give you decent range would require redoing the crash testing.
 
Just a thought, but could this be a second, range extending battery that would bring the total range to around 400 miles (similar to an ICE car) while taking a trip? How much battery could fit in that cubby at the rear of the frunk? You would keep your own battery, but rent and swap the auxiliary one. Could be done quick and easy, and the small size would address the storage problem. Might also explain the "under your nose" comment.

I still stand by my theory that it's a hot swappable metal air battery range extender, considering they already have several patents covering this, for example "Thermal Energy Transfer System for a Power Source Utilizing Both Metal-Air and Non-Metal-Air Battery Packs" http://www.google.com/patents/US20120040210 and this one too http://www.patentstorm.us/applications/20130015823/description.html :
Given the high energy density and the large capacity-to-weight ratio offered by metal-air cells, they are well suited for use in electric vehicles, either as a stand-alone electrical power source or in conjunction with one or more other power sources, for example, a lithium ion battery pack.
 
Call me a doubter that may have to eat his words come Thursday night, but I would much rather see more superchargers...

What's wrong with a 20 minute break every 200 miles? We're really in that much of a hurry that 5 vs. 20 minutes matter when driving cross-country?

My thoughts exactly. Actually, as an investor and huge fan of the Model S, I hate all of this emphasis placed on long distance driving, battery swapping, Superchargers (to a lesser extent), and how EVs won't be ready for prime-time until they can match ICE cars for range and speed of recharging. My Golf TDI gets 50mpg and can go 700 miles before the low fuel light comes on. Does that mean that I won't consider any other car that does less? Of course not.

Most of the potential Tesla owners can, and do, fly if they have to go more than 500 miles. Most also have a second (ICE) car that is better used for long trips if they insist on driving. If you (meaning anyone) routinely drive more than 250 miles per day, then maybe a Tesla isn't a good choice. Just as my Golf wouldn't be a good choice if I had to haul 3 yards of wet concrete every day. It comes down to using the right tool for the job.

As an investor in TSLA, I hate to see tons of money being used to address a problem that really doesn't exist for most of the car buying public. Better to put that money to work promoting the Model S as a good "daily car" (as opposed to a "neighborhood runabout" like the Leaf) that can serve the needs of 98% of the driving that is done.

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