Why would anyone pay to swap out a battery when supercharging is much more convenient, free(!) and you don't have the stress of having to go and give the battery back?
This! I probably wouldn't swap packs if it were free, I would rather Supercharge.
To qualify for the max ZEV credit which requires "refueling" faster than supercharger can provide. I think its a marketing gimmick that doesn't get rolled out beyond a token few stations in California to qualify for that credit.
This is what I currently think but have some feelings that ...
To do what with? Tesla already has more credits than they can sell. Do you expect more ICE car manufacturers to enter into the CA market that they can sell to?
I don't know about how those credits are working, but Tesla would about double them with a battery swap system. Maybe Tesla installs 5M worth of battery swap stations. But nets 10M in credit sales. They could spend the next 5M on superchargers.
One question I still have is how does Tesla give you a 100% charged battery? Do they keep their swap batteries 100% charged all the time. If they do won't they degrade quickly? And if you really do swap packs, never to get yours back again, isn't that kind of a bad deal?