Becoming impatient for the X to hit the road.

[adiggs]

I am in dilemma because I am afraid if I order D now, and wait a year, finally receive it; but after a few weeks, X, the car I originally wanted, suddenly available to order. ****...
Or if I decide to wait for X, and then another year has passed again, 2015... 2016... 2017...

Frankly, even X available to order next month, I estimate we won't get it until 1st quarter 2016 at HK, more likely 2nd or 3rd quarter.

One best solution is that if Tesla can make Model S or D possible to have the optional +2 seats available in HK market, and add 2-3 more Supercharge stations here; I will have enough reasons not to wait for X.

I really hope Tesla can give us some estimate timeline or what they are doing in our market; so that we can make the right buying decision with those information; and there won't be some issues like "petition, complaints, anger" from S owners after D announcement.

I don't have an answer to your dilemma either 'ck, but I do have one way of thinking about it; something I've taken away from the dual motor unveiling for myself. Whenever you do buy the Tesla of your dreams, do because the features of the car at that moment are what you want, and are such that even if they change dramatically a month later, you'll be ok with it. Up until now, for me, that would have been dual motor / AWD; if I'd purchased a Model S anytime over the last few years, I would now be unhappy because AWD is now or soon to be available. That's why I've been waiting for Model X (or at least part of it).

Today, I'm worried there will be a larger battery coming soonish for Model S/X and I know today, it's going to bother me if I do buy Model X and then a 110 kw battery comes along close behind. Realizing that this is all moving quite quickly, it's got me thinking there will be a Signature X slow opening up, and my long wait is going to have to go longer.

This all mostly applies to those of us that buy the car with the intention of owning it for a long time, and don't have the financial ability to trade in every year or three.

With the long queue of people wanting a car, it also means you'll have to be very patient. Being an Innovator or Early Adopter in the adoption cycle is rough business

 

[Chuck P85D]

I mean I kinda wanted S drivers to envy my X but now that have all our goodies.

wow... really?!?! that's sad.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

No need for theories, fact is that Model X deliveries will not start in 2014. Tesla already stated the production goal of Spring 2015 and general hints are that late spring, early summer is more likely.

The shareholder letters certainly make this pretty darn likely. As does Tesla's history of delays with Model S, which was delay after delay, not surprises to the other direction. Pretty much the only thing pointing the other direction are the likes of the Model X Signature confirmation talking of deliveries starting in 2014 (again repeated recently), but obviously the realistic answer is that those estimates have later been superseded and bear no relevance to today's situation.

Just because something is theoretically possible, doesn't really mean it is a theory. It just leaves room for surprises. Sometimes they do happen, especially when companies are secretive about product plans. Estimates change. Plans change. But I agree, it is unlikely in this situation.

 

[NigelM]

Just because something is theoretically possible, doesn't really mean it is a theory. It just leaves room for surprises. Sometimes they do happen, especially when companies are secretive about product plans. Estimates change. Plans change. But I agree, it is unlikely in this situation.

Thoeretically a pig might fly but I'm happy to bet against it and if you think there's the remotest possibility that Tesla delivers to even one customer a Model X before the end of this year I'll give you 1000 to 1 odds.

 

[Barry]

Thoeretically a pig might fly but I'm happy to bet against it and if you think there's the remotest possibility that Tesla delivers to even one customer a Model X before the end of this year I'll give you 1000 to 1 odds.

I'll take that bet for $10 :smile:

 

[NigelM]

I'll take that bet for $10 :smile:

Deal. :-D

 

[AlMc]

Deal. :-D

A sucker bet! :wink:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Thoeretically a pig might fly but I'm happy to bet against it and if you think there's the remotest possibility that Tesla delivers to even one customer a Model X before the end of this year I'll give you 1000 to 1 odds.

I wouldn't bet against you on that on any odds. The biggest reason being, public companies must be honest to shareholders. So unless Q3 results offer new guidance on Model X schedule and change deliveries to 2014, it isn't happening.

 

[NigelM]

The biggest reason being, public companies must be honest to shareholders. So unless Q3 results offer new guidance on Model X schedule and change deliveries to 2014, it isn't happening.

Shareholder communications are not the biggest issue; and it's a good idea that you perhaps stop trying to get folks excited with the possibility and hope of something happening which is actually, physically, impossible. So, I know that (sadly :smile I'm not going to get any more bets but I'm going to explain why...

• Tesla has beta Model X cars; beta versions mean that the car is actively being tested. After the beta phase the company goes into final sourcing and tooling and creates Release Candidates (RCs); typically RCs are shown to the world but they may also go through one or two iterations. After RCs are signed off the company will start production planning.
• Tesla will present the RCs to the world and a large number of X reservation holders are keeping their fingers crossed for a reveal event with test rides. An event is extremely likely but in any case customers would like to see the RCs at least via various media prior to configuring their cars.
• Right now the S85D lead time from ordering to delivery is about 4 months. Model X is based on the S skateboard but there are numerous new elements and its quite possible that the lead time for X will be longer than for the S but it's guaranteed not to be any shorter.

The rest is a function of the calendar. Simple math suggests that late Q2 is a reasonable guess for first deliveries, could be a month or so earlier or a month or so later but it's physically impossible for Xs to be delivered within the next ~9 weeks.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Shareholder communications are not the biggest issue; and it's a good idea that you perhaps stop trying to get folks excited with the possibility and hope of something happening which is actually, physically, impossible. So, I know that (sadly :smile I'm not going to get any more bets but I'm going to explain why...

• Tesla has beta Model X cars; beta versions mean that the car is actively being tested. After the beta phase the company goes into final sourcing and tooling and creates Release Candidates (RCs); typically RCs are shown to the world but they may also go through one or two iterations. After RCs are signed off the company will start production planning.
• Tesla will present the RCs to the world and a large number of X reservation holders are keeping their fingers crossed for a reveal event with test rides. An event is extremely likely but in any case customers would like to see the RCs at least via various media prior to configuring their cars.
• Right now the S85D lead time from ordering to delivery is about 4 months. Model X is based on the S skateboard but there are numerous new elements and its quite possible that the lead time for X will be longer than for the S but it's guaranteed not to be any shorter.

The rest is a function of the calendar. Simple math suggests that late Q2 is a reasonable guess for first deliveries, could be a month or so earlier or a month or so later but it's physically impossible for Xs to be delivered within the next ~9 weeks.

I would say you are probably reading too much intent into my messages. I don't think Tesla will ship in 2014. Least of all I'm trying to get anyone excited about such a thing. What I based my comments on is the general appreciation of the fact that sometimes companies do surprise. Sometimes when people least expect it, they come out and say, OK this is now out. Sometimes that sudden change of "fortunes" is preceded by months of silence and rumour of delays and then, boom, it just happens.

Given that shareholder guidance exists, though, I would expect that to have to roughly be true (or altered through new guidance), so that's why I'm not expecting a change - unless a guidance change is first communicated to shareholders (and thus, the public). Also, Tesla doesn't exactly have a history of surprising with speedier than expected deliveries. I think your timeframe is very likely correct, I am merely explaining why I don't consider deviations from it completely, unequivocally impossible.

I find all of your points quite possible and very likely to be accurate of how things will play out. What I left room for, theoretically, is that the event could be sooner than we think and first Model X deliveries could happen faster than expected, considering those reservations are already in (unlike in the case of P85D). If things would be further along than we think they are (which they probably are not) and if the first deliveries were to happen faster than we think (say, they have everything sourced already, which they probably don't) and they have been masters at keeping a lid on things... So, I don't see anything there in your list that would say all this is impossible. Sometimes companies do surprise. The event could still be this year, the deliveries could start sooner after the event than we think.

That said, I do not think Tesla will ship any Model X's in 2014 and I think Q2/2015 earliest is a scenario I too would bet on.

- - - Updated - - -

I guess what I'm trying to say is the age old one: It isn't what you don't know that gets you, it is what you know, but just ain't so.

What if our assumptions on Tesla's Model X manufacturing process status are wrong? Then everything based on those assumptions could be wrong.

I'm just leaving room for this thought in the back of my head. Always.

 

[NigelM]

What if our assumptions on Tesla's Model X manufacturing process status are wrong?

They're not. There are physical limitations, but you're free to dream. :smile:

And I think I'll leave it at that. Good talking to you.

 

[bonnie]

My two cents:

The forum, bless our collective hearts, has a tendency to want to believe that the impossible might happen and we might be surprised. It wasn't that long ago that folks were POSITIVE that Tesla would roll out the Model X months earlier than their guidance had suggested and would announce it on a call. We had some very disappointed people here. It's not good to beat the drum of 'it might be early it might be early'.

As has been acknowledged, there are people here on the forum that because of a long history with Tesla, have built relationships with people at Tesla. This doesn't mean that new ideas aren't welcome - of course new ideas and thoughts are. But discounting that history is foolish. Some people here are speaking facts, not just laying out assumptions or possibilities.

Yes, it is possible that today my neighbor's goats might fly. But based on my first-hand interaction with those goats, I can tell you I'd offer the same bet with the same odds that has already been offered. I personally am not planning on receiving my Model X Sig (#2) any earlier than end of Q2 or beginning of Q3. Would I like it earlier? Heck yes! Have I let go of hope that I'll see it earlier? Yep. And not because I'm a pessimist. There are dies to be made, regulatory testing to be done, etc. As Nigel has pointed out, calendars aren't compressible for certain events.

 

[Kevin Harney]

My two cents:

The forum, bless our collective hearts, has a tendency to want to believe that the impossible might happen and we might be surprised. It wasn't that long ago that folks were POSITIVE that Tesla would roll out the Model X months earlier than their guidance had suggested and would announce it on a call. We had some very disappointed people here. It's not good to beat the drum of 'it might be early it might be early'.

As has been acknowledged, there are people here on the forum that because of a long history with Tesla, have built relationships with people at Tesla. This doesn't mean that new ideas aren't welcome - of course new ideas and thoughts are. But discounting that history is foolish. Some people here are speaking facts, not just laying out assumptions or possibilities.

Yes, it is possible that today my neighbor's goats might fly. But based on my first-hand interaction with those goats, I can tell you I'd offer the same bet with the same odds that has already been offered. I personally am not planning on receiving my Model X Sig (#2) any earlier than end of Q2 or beginning of Q3. Would I like it earlier? Heck yes! Have I let go of hope that I'll see it earlier? Yep. And not because I'm a pessimist. There are dies to be made, regulatory testing to be done, etc. As Nigel has pointed out, calendars aren't compressible for certain events.

Bonnie, your diplomacy never ceases to amaze me :biggrin:

 

[DJ Frustration]

I've got a project for those who are becoming impatient with the Model X. Here goes...

Goal: See if you can find the Model X VIN Decipherable Information on the USDOT website.

Let me explain here:
The Model S with dual motors VIN Decipherable Information data was uploaded on the USDOT FTP server on 1/13/2014 as evidenced by this document: ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/MfrMail/ORG9130.pdf
That means that Tesla had plans for a dual motor Model S that would be released in 2014 way back in early 2014 and probably late 2013.
They submitted this document with the intention of releasing it in 2014 as evidenced by the 8th digit indicating production year of 2014.
Fortunately, the USDOT FTP site lets you browse the ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/MfrMail/ sub-directory. Unfortunately, there have been 1,032 submissions since the Model S doc was submitted in January.

Since this group is becoming impatient, as am I, I propose we examine these submissions to see if we can uncover the VIN information for the Model X. Surely it has already been submitted by now.

Any takers?

 

[AnOutsider]

I've got a project for those who are becoming impatient with the Model X. Here goes...

Goal: See if you can find the Model X VIN Decipherable Information on the USDOT website.

Let me explain here:
The Model S with dual motors VIN Decipherable Information data was uploaded on the USDOT FTP server on 1/13/2014 as evidenced by this document: ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/MfrMail/ORG9130.pdf
That means that Tesla had plans for a dual motor Model S that would be released in 2014 way back in early 2014 and probably late 2013.
They submitted this document with the intention of releasing it in 2014 as evidenced by the 8th digit indicating production year of 2014.
Fortunately, the USDOT FTP site lets you browse the ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/MfrMail/ sub-directory. Unfortunately, there have been 1,032 submissions since the Model S doc was submitted in January.

Since this group is becoming impatient, as am I, I propose we examine these submissions to see if we can uncover the VIN information for the Model X. Surely it has already been submitted by now.

Any takers?

Not I, but with the data there, seems it would be fairly trivial to write something to download all the PDFs. Less trivial would be to OCR-em and find ones that mention Tesla.

*edit* for $40 this site will OCR them all so you have searchable text

OCRWebService.com - OCR Web Service enables you to convert scanned documents to Text, Word, or PDF files

 

[DJ Frustration]

I started my review and uncovered the fact that Google Auto, LLC filed a notice that they would be producing "electric-powered low-speed vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating of no more than 2998 pounds." Very interesting.

ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/MfrMail/ORG10118.pdf

 

[DJ Frustration]

Boy that escalated quickly...

I screened all 1,032 docs going back to when Tesla posted it's revision to the Model S VIN info and found absolutely no submissions by Tesla for the X or anything else. If anyone wants to start at January 2014 and go further back, by all means. My eyes hurt

 

[AnxietyRanger]

They're not. There are physical limitations, but you're free to dream. :smile:

And I think I'll leave it at that. Good talking to you.

If it wasn't apparent, it was a rhetorical question. I thought that much was clear from the context.

I don't think Tesla will ship Model X in 2014. I have said that many times. I have offered some thoughts on why I, in general, am reluctant to discount the theoretical possibility companies may do stuff we don't quite anticipate.

I have even less dreams on the matter.

- - - Updated - - -

My two cents:

The forum, bless our collective hearts, has a tendency to want to believe that the impossible might happen and we might be surprised. It wasn't that long ago that folks were POSITIVE that Tesla would roll out the Model X months earlier than their guidance had suggested and would announce it on a call. We had some very disappointed people here. It's not good to beat the drum of 'it might be early it might be early'.

Just don't confuse me with such hopeful people. As I have outlined, I don't think Tesla will ship Model X in 2014.

If NigelM has insider information or regulatory information on Tesla's Model X status then he may know. I have no such information, so in general, I always leave some room for the unknowns before I say something is impossible. That does not mean I consider that likely or would bet on it or dream about it as some have suggested. Bringing flying goats into it seems downright insulting.

Quite a response just because I said in message #56 "I guess in theory they could still surprise, but it seems theoretical."

Such bad words from me, I guess.

 

[AlMc]

AR: I like and respect your enthusiasm and I hope you are right but it Might be time to move on from this discussion.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

AR: I like and respect your enthusiasm and I hope you are right but it Might be time to move on from this discussion.

One more time: If I am right, so is NigelM and bonnie. I do *not* disagree with the Q2-Q3 estimate.

Quite the hooplah from a little disclaimer I put in #56 leaving room for the theoretical. I guess comms really is hard!