Buy a model 3 or wait?

[schoq]

Hi All,

I am about to get a model 3 (planned to move forward this weekend) with an aim to sell it in about 3 years time maximum (moving overseas). Looking at the latest discussions around the million miles battery and its "immediate" announcement, I would love to get the community input/opinion on the below one million dollar question:

1. Should I wait until Model 3s are equipped with this new battery type since in 3 years time, Model 3 without will likely be really hard to sell (or wouldn't be worth much)
2. Should I just lease instead of owning?

Thoughts?

Thanks.

 

[Seth2020]

I normally am anti-lease, but if you have a known, unchangeable, hard limit of 3 years, then maybe it makes sense. It will save you the hassle of selling the car after 3 years

 

[The_Observer]

My vote goes to lease as well on your situation, given if you don't drive more than 15000 miles a year.

 

[RichardL]

Only issue with a lease would be if the lease end date, did not match your overseas departure (or maybe the departure date could 'slip') leaving you with no vehicle.

Having said that, when i leased my X, they simply said 'return it when you are ready and we will adjust the payments accordingly'

 

[schoq]

Thanks everyone. I am leaning towards leasing as well.

I have the same concerns though with lease term and the overseas departure date alignment as it is not clear (as far as the info I could find) what happens if:

1. I need to end the lease 6 months sooner for example what exactly is the penalty other than the remaining 6xmonthly payments.
2. I need a lease extension, I believe this is easier and lease can be extended up to 6 months from what I read.

 

[jjrandorin]

Thanks everyone. I am leaning towards leasing as well.

I have the same concerns though with lease term and the overseas departure date alignment as it is not clear (as far as the info I could find) what happens if:

1. I need to end the lease 6 months sooner for example what exactly is the penalty other than the remaining 6xmonthly payments.
2. I need a lease extension, I believe this is easier and lease can be extended up to 6 months from what I read.

In almost all cases of leasing, in situation #1 you would be liable for the last 6 months of payments, or you would need to figure out if it was better for you to actually sell the car and pay the difference between what you owe on the buyout and what you get from selling it.

In this case, since you cant sell the car (cant currently buy model 3 lease at the end), you would likely be on the hook for the 6 months payments, + any lease disposition fee. Translation... if you take a lease on a tesla model 3, plan to pay for taking it to term. Even if you turned in the car 6 months early in that point, you would still be paying for it.

Buying a car with the intent to sell it 3 years later is also normally a money losing proposition. Buying ANY new car with the idea you are going to sell it in 3 years is just "how much am I going to lose on this transaction". There is always the "next big thing" especially with tesla, so say you wait for some new battery annoucement... and then next year they change the styling. New styling normally = old styling worth less in car land, with a very (very very) few exceptions.

If you have a hard date of 3 years and MUST have a new car, then you need to lease it, and plan to pay for the amount of payments you sign the lease for (24 months, 36 months, whatever you sign the lease for).

 

[needp3d-]

a source at CATL said they will introduce this "new NMC battery" to chinese model 3 1st later this year. We should see a lower price. I guess wait if you can

 

[Stickboy46]

a source at CATL said they will introduce this "new NMC battery" to chinese model 3 1st later this year. We should see a lower price. I guess wait if you can

Considering the leak today was a report... Of a plan... To develop a battery.... In China... You are looking at multiple years before it gets approved for use in the US and gets in production. There is also no saying they will magically lower the cost of the Model 3 even though it's cheaper for them to make it.

I'd actually say off what I've read that I'd be surprised if it even makes it into the Chinese Model 3 this year.

 

[Dolemite]

I highly doubt our Model 3s won't be "worth much" in 3 years...

 

[1.21GW]

YOLO

 

[schoq]

In almost all cases of leasing, in situation #1 you would be liable for the last 6 months of payments, or you would need to figure out if it was better for you to actually sell the car and pay the difference between what you owe on the buyout and what you get from selling it.

In this case, since you cant sell the car (cant currently buy model 3 lease at the end), you would likely be on the hook for the 6 months payments, + any lease disposition fee. Translation... if you take a lease on a tesla model 3, plan to pay for taking it to term. Even if you turned in the car 6 months early in that point, you would still be paying for it.

Buying a car with the intent to sell it 3 years later is also normally a money losing proposition. Buying ANY new car with the idea you are going to sell it in 3 years is just "how much am I going to lose on this transaction". There is always the "next big thing" especially with tesla, so say you wait for some new battery annoucement... and then next year they change the styling. New styling normally = old styling worth less in car land, with a very (very very) few exceptions.

If you have a hard date of 3 years and MUST have a new car, then you need to lease it, and plan to pay for the amount of payments you sign the lease for (24 months, 36 months, whatever you sign the lease for).

Makes total sense. Trying to limit how much money I would lose. The current Tesla depreciation rate seems to be more advantageous to buy vs lease today (by a couple of thousands from my last estimations and the current market). I am just worried that this new battery will likely be the most significant upgrade the model 3 has had since day-1 which means the depreciation rate will likely drop significantly for models 3 that don't have it but again, I am trying to predict the future... Thanks for your input.

 

[schoq]

Considering the leak today was a report... Of a plan... To develop a battery.... In China... You are looking at multiple years before it gets approved for use in the US and gets in production. There is also no saying they will magically lower the cost of the Model 3 even though it's cheaper for them to make it.

I'd actually say off what I've read that I'd be surprised if it even makes it into the Chinese Model 3 this year.

Looking at previous FSD announcements, that is also what could be happening

 

[GZDongles]

Looking at previous FSD announcements, that is also what could be happening

I think it's also worth noting that what I've read about the "million mile" batteries is that they are likely to be a tradeoff with cost & longevity on one side and range on the other. So the cobalt-free batteries are likely to have better longevity but lower energy density and therefore lower range (unless they find a way to cram more batteries in the car, which would mean higher weight and therefore lower performance).

I am in the same boat where I have been waiting for the "next big thing", but I think battery improvements are probably far enough off that it won't dramatically affect the car in the next ~6 months. If anyone has solid information that disagrees with that, let me know and I will defer my delivery 6 months as well!

 

[needp3d-]

Considering the leak today was a report... Of a plan... To develop a battery.... In China... You are looking at multiple years before it gets approved for use in the US and gets in production. There is also no saying they will magically lower the cost of the Model 3 even though it's cheaper for them to make it.

I'd actually say off what I've read that I'd be surprised if it even makes it into the Chinese Model 3 this year.

I guess my source was correct? Report: Million-Mile Model 3 Planned for China Production - Tesla Motors Club

 

[GZDongles]

I guess my source was correct? Report: Million-Mile Model 3 Planned for China Production - Tesla Motors Club

Per that article, the battery is likely to both cost more and have lower range.

 

[Stickboy46]

I guess my source was correct? Report: Million-Mile Model 3 Planned for China Production - Tesla Motors Club

I don't think you can confirm a rumor with another rumor

 

[Knightshade]

I guess my source was correct? Report: Million-Mile Model 3 Planned for China Production - Tesla Motors Club

Nope.

Your "source" said new battery for model 3, at lower cost.


Your actual link here says CATL has a new battery that has no current customers and costs 10% more

So those seem far more "directly contradictory" than 'correct'

 

[Fernand]

Just get the car and the priceless joy of driving it. A some-day battery is immaterial. Note that even the old Model S batteries showed ~10-15% loss of range at ~500,000 24x7 miles (shuttle service, supercharging to 100%). When you sell it/turn it in after 3 years, it will have all its range, unless you ignore the on-screen warnings and abuse the duck out of the battery it by maniacally topping it up to 100% all the time, in which case it might lose maybe a couple of points. So just don't do that.

I dunno about leasing, you have to figure out the numbers and the nuisance of selling any used car. If you live out in the country, only drive on 2 lane roads, and don't drive on highways/freeways, the FSD isn't important. Otherwise, it's great value right now. Welcome to the Tesla fanatic tribe, you'll see.
.

 

[needp3d-]

Nope.

Your "source" said new battery for model 3, at lower cost.


Your actual link here says CATL has a new battery that has no current customers and costs 10% more

So those seem far more "directly contradictory" than 'correct'

read the article again. 10% more compare to "who"? there is no way LiFePO4 battery is more expensive

 

[jbiggs2]

With most technology, you can get into a state of always waiting for the next best thing. Things will always improve. Are you holding onto your iPhone 3G because you heard the iPhone 12 is going to be amazing, but then skipping it because it doesn't have 5G? The car is amazing, if you are in the market for one you are doing well financially. You will never get these years back in your life and any delay will result in you driving an inferior car will waiting for the "ultimate" version of the model 3. Get it and enjoy it!