Nope, that's not what I meant. Everything you mentioned : motor efficiency, air friction, hills, whatever the car experiences that might take more power, All of this pulls current that is
metered by the car. The battery pack has a shunt (current measuring device) that site between the cells and the rest of the system. All of the looses to heat or inefficiencies that are downstream (from the shunt to the motors) is accounted for in the calculations. You have denser air, a flat tire of going uphill, the car measures the additional power and adds that to the trip meter.
The issue lies in what's ahead : when pulling power from the cells to the shunt, some of that power goes to waste. That's fine with and everybody expects that. The problem is that when you consume lots of power, the amount that goes to waste is not
proportional. 2x the power is not 2x the waste heat. It's more than that. And all of this
is not metered by the shunt!
That means that is you want to use the trip meter (that uses the shunt) to check the usable capacity of the pack, you need to avoid pulling too much power. And I'm not even mentioning the inaccuracies of the trip meter. It simply adds up what data it has.. but it can drop frames and not update for a couple of milliseconds because of lag. Milliseconds every couple of seconds means adding up errors and such.
This is not a theory, this is a fact. Every single battery manufacturer will list capacity of the cell based on a specific discharge rate. You want to get the full, printed-on-the-cell, capacity, you need to pull a maximum of 0.5amps of some low value.
Check this NCR18650 chart from Panasonic. This is not the cell in the Model S but look at the bottom right graph. The blue line, taken at 0.2C or 0.2x the capacity (540 mA in that case) can extract a lot more energy than the Purple one at 2C (5.4amps in that case). The charts will be different for each cell type but pulling more power always means wasting more heat, exponentially.
I'm with you on the fact that from a owner perspective, these should be easier... But batteries are hard, especially knowing the current % SOC of the battery when it's under a load.. aka, driving. I can't speak for other models but my 85D trip planner is REALLY accurate. sure, it starts out optimistic, especially in winter but will readjust after a couple of miles/km of driving and its prediction is always spot on. Do a couple of launches and yeah, you've now wasted a lot of power that the car can't really account for.. but the range estimate will go down after a few minutes of driving. While it can't add that to the trip meter, it knows the voltage is now lower and that remaining range is less.