Car and Driver mag thinks Elon is sweating bullets over the Bolt

[Chopr147]

Not really but the quote was "Bolt deliveries are scheduled to begin before the end of the year. Will the Bolt give Elon night sweats? "
Article assumes the Model 3's will not be delivered before October 2019. The article is a couple weeks old but the magazine version exaggerated a bit more.
Another nugget: EV's depreciate afte 3 years 20% more than ICE.
According to National Automobile Dealers Association ( I read ICE dealers) EV's have a 70% depreciation compared to 50% for gas compact cars.
Also "EV battery life will inevitably degrade leading performance to deteriorate faster than it does with a gas engine" HUH?
I can only assume they are referring to all other car manufacturers and not including Tesla's. We have learned from TMC users as well as public articles of high mileage Tesla taxi's with little degradation. It's just a puff piece and should not bother me but articles w/o actual research are so common today.
I did find interesting that according to C&D Mercedes Benz is working on an EV with the Tesla "skateboard" configuration. Did not know that.
Another bit of info: The Bolt is mostly built in Korea which I guess explains why it looks just like a Kia

 

[ModelIII]

Not really but the quote was "Bolt deliveries are scheduled to begin before the end of the year. Will the Bolt give Elon night sweats? "
Article assumes the Model 3's will not be delivered before October 2019. The article is a couple weeks old but the magazine version exaggerated a bit more.
Another nugget: EV's depreciate afte 3 years 20% more than ICE.
According to National Automobile Dealers Association ( I read ICE dealers) EV's have a 70% depreciation compared to 50% for gas compact cars.
Also "EV battery life will inevitably degrade leading performance to deteriorate faster than it does with a gas engine" HUH?
I can only assume they are referring to all other car manufacturers and not including Tesla's. We have learned from TMC users as well as public articles of high mileage Tesla taxi's with little degradation. It's just a puff piece and should not bother me but articles w/o actual research are so common today.
I did find interesting that according to C&D Mercedes Benz is working on an EV with the Tesla "skateboard" configuration. Did not know that.
Another bit of info: The Bolt is mostly built in Korea which I guess explains why it looks just like a Kia

C&D's existence depends on ICE machines.

 

[OLD BOATER]

Its a rare thing when a car magazine or newspaper has anything positive to say about Elon or Tesla

 

[Gizmotoy]

C&D's existence depends on ICE machines.

In practice, yes (they advertise), but there's no existential crisis that prevents a car mag from praising EVs. As a subscriber to the largest three in the US, in general, I'd say Tesla has had more glowing car mag reviews than negative ones.

It's hard for me to fault the depreciation and range conclusions. The Model S and Roadster are doing OK, but have any of you looked at Leaf prices? I've seen 2-3 year old, loaded Leafs for $10k or less. That's pretty close to the 70% 3 year residual quoted. The reality is the EV resale values are going to be abysmal for quite awhile, particularly those with city car-style range.

I just had my 8 year old track car on the dyno a few months ago. It put down within 2% of the HP it did when it was 6 months old, and I get the same gas mileage I did back then (I've tracked every single fill-up for 8 years!).


With that addressed, I don't think Elon is scared of the Bolt. At all.

 

[gavine]

I think EVs depreciate because of higher range cars on the horizon. Once all EV's are 200+ miles, I don't think there will be as much depreciation. I leased (instead of bought) my BMW i3 for that very reason. After the 3-year lease is up, the i3 will likely have more than 200 miles of range and my 80 to 100 mile i3 will be worth a lot less than it would have been otherwise.

 

[ElectricTundra]

BEV's may well depreciate faster than ICE traditionally have. The issue though is in 5 or 10 years will you, and most people, rather have a BEV that you can plug in for cheap fuel or an ICE that you have to go search for expensive gas for since so many gas stations and refineries are closing? A quite reliable BEV or an ICE that will require increasing maintenance? An ICE that seems antiquated?

Those old ICE may depreciate massively faster than they ever have before.

 

[ecarfan]

Article assumes the Model 3's will not be delivered before October 2019.

Are you sure your quoted that correctly? 2019? I searched caranddriver.com but cannot find their article you referenced.

The "statistic" about EVs depreciating faster than ICE vehicles is likely based on Leafs with severe battery degradation. We know that Tesla battery degradation after 100K miles is minimal.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Another factor in depreciation is the $7.5k tax credit. A lot of calculations don't factor that in.

 

[Neohippy]

The major factor I think in the depreciation is the reliability and the cost to fix the car. If parts become available and service manuals to where someone could repair the car themselves it will help with depreciation. Currently it's very expensive to fix a Tesla out of warranty

 

[Chopr147]

Are you sure your quoted that correctly? 2019? I searched caranddriver.com but cannot find their article you referenced.

The "statistic" about EVs depreciating faster than ICE vehicles is likely based on Leafs with severe battery degradation. We know that Tesla battery degradation after 100K miles is minimal.

Here is the info on the Model 3 published 8/9/16 Clearly states Model 3 will be 2 years late. Having said that it's not a knock on Tesla but using some "formula" to predict the M3 release. Worth the read. I hope they are wrong
Car and Driver predicts Tesla Model 3 will be 2 years late ... - Electrek

I'm not sure how much the lack of Tesla parts factor in regarding depreciation, maybe 5% ?
Out of warranty on a Tesla is scary right now.
Or attempting to repair accident damage. Tesla is such a customer friendly company unless you need parts for your car.

 

[Todd Burch]

Facts from the NADA? Ha. Excuse me, my Bulls@*t alarm is going off.

 

[ChadS]

Plug In America alerted NADA to the fact that depreciation calculations should take tax credits in to account a few years ago, but they have repeatedly published numbers ignoring it.

Aside from that, I agree with gavine that a large part of the depreciation (and greatly reduced sales rates for new cars) is due to the promise of much longer-range BEVs at similar prices on the near horizon. Which explains why Tesla and PHEVs aren't hit with the same issues.

 

[Todd Burch]

And the Leaf depreciated a lot because the early versions lacked thermal management of the pack, so pack life was much shorter than it should have been.

 

[number12]

Not really but the quote was "Bolt deliveries are scheduled to begin before the end of the year. Will the Bolt give Elon night sweats? "
Article assumes the Model 3's will not be delivered before October 2019. The article is a couple weeks old but the magazine version exaggerated a bit more.
Another nugget: EV's depreciate afte 3 years 20% more than ICE.
According to National Automobile Dealers Association ( I read ICE dealers) EV's have a 70% depreciation compared to 50% for gas compact cars.
Also "EV battery life will inevitably degrade leading performance to deteriorate faster than it does with a gas engine" HUH?
I can only assume they are referring to all other car manufacturers and not including Tesla's. We have learned from TMC users as well as public articles of high mileage Tesla taxi's with little degradation. It's just a puff piece and should not bother me but articles w/o actual research are so common today.
I did find interesting that according to C&D Mercedes Benz is working on an EV with the Tesla "skateboard" configuration. Did not know that.
Another bit of info: The Bolt is mostly built in Korea which I guess explains why it looks just like a Kia

New new coming out effects value more than age/degrading performance. Why do you think tesla makes leasing such a bad deal?

 

[Lloyd]

The bolt will never be a threat to Tesla as long as they don't have a charging network built out.

 

[NewJerseyMS]

Some of that EV data is driven by horrible non-tesla EVs. I've read reports that Tesla is much better than all the others, and when you average it out you get the result that car and driver points to.

Who wants to buy a used electric car with no range that has no visual appeal?

 

[mtndrew1]

C/D seems to be entirely misunderstanding what Tesla is attempting to do here.

The Model 3 is meant to be a competitor to the Audi A4, BMW 3 Series, and Mercedes-Benz C Class. Tesla intends to compete with these automobiles regardless of propulsion method and at the same price point, whether or not tax credits expire. They just want to make a better sports sedan (it happens to be electric). There is huge, profitable volume in this segment and customers care more about performance and dynamics than price variation.

The Bolt is the world's best Leaf. There's no doubt that it's an engineering triumph in its own right (thanks LG!) and that it will sell well as compared to EVs in that price bracket from 2010-2016. When propulsion method is removed from the equation, the Bolt will unfortunately be competing with Honda Fits and Chevy Sonics and Nissan Versas. It is competing in a segment that is incredibly price sensitive with a body style that screams "$99/mo!" The car's sole virtue will be that it's electric.

Just like the Germans were positively blindsided by the Model S because they didn't understand where things were headed, the Americans and Japanese are about to be smacked upside the head by the same inherent trajectory of the market.

Elon isn't losing any sleep over the Bolt because he's busy building a sports sedan that is better than a 328i. It happens to be electric.

 

[NikeWings]

Not really but the quote was "Bolt deliveries are scheduled to begin before the end of the year. Will the Bolt give Elon night sweats? "

We're talking about a guy that stared at Bezos without blinking, in the world's most complex rocket launch & land effort.
Amp up his competitive juice, tech, ops and talent over the Bolt, yes. Sweat over the Bolt, no.

 

[Canuck]

And the Leaf depreciated a lot because the early versions lacked thermal management of the pack, so pack life was much shorter than it should have been.

There's still no thermal management on a Leaf. I consider "thermal management" to be liquid cooling and not a fan. 2011 to 2016 Leafs all use a fan. They did go to "lizard" chemistry but reading over on the Leaf forms it doesn't seem to be making much of a difference.

Who wants to buy a used electric car with no range that has no visual appeal?

Me. They're cheap and great for keeping your teenage kids very close to home. I bought a used Leaf up from the States when our dollar was near par a few years ago. It ended up being a very good buy for me and the looks have grown on us. I've only lost one capacity bar so far but I live in an ideal climate for a non-thermally managed battery. I wouldn't buy one if I lived in Texas or Florida.

The depreciation argument is just another scare tactic from an ICE industry running scared. What they have going for them is the old horse sellers couldn't use that argument. If your horse died, you took a huge hit in depreciation. But like the old horse and buggy, ICE vehicles will become a thing of the past. It's just a matter of time, and it will take a long time, and they won't go down without a fight.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

"The highest driver death rates are for the Kia Rio, the Nissan Versa sedan, and the Hyundai Accent."

Report lists cars with highest and lowest rates of deaths

I really wanted to get a $10,000 leaf while waiting for used Teslas to come down in price. Then I saw this article showing the Versa with one of the highest death-rates. I believe the Leaf is built on the Versa platform. Bummer, I guess I'll just have to pay a lot more than $10k, and get a Tesla. Oh well, can't take it with you.