Would love an adapter, but would love superchargers more...so there's that.
Thank you! Exactly!
Nobody here specifically wants CHAdeMO. We don't believe it's any better. We don't have charging equipment lying around that we'd like to re-use. It's slower and costlier than SuperChargers. And we would have to compete with Leafs for spaces. The only reason there is even a request for CHAdeMO is because of this current situation:
a) There are some CHAdeMO DC charge station around us - AND - there is NOT a SuperCharger at those same locations.
b) We want DC charging now!
c) It is cheaper for Tesla to just give us a CHAdeMO adapter than it is to install a SuperCharger - so we will likely be able to use a DC charger sooner with CHAdeMO than if we have to wait for a SuperCharger.
d) Hence - let's demand CHAdeMO!
However, I can imagine this from Tesla's perspective (I've mentioned this before - I know this isn't a popular opinion, but I'm not convinced that this
isn't Tesla's reasoning.):
a) Apart from the West Coast green highway, there are exactly 7 other geographic areas on the mainland U.S. and Canada that is covered by CHAdeMO, and 160 overall CHAdeMO outlets.
http://www.chademo.com/kml/CHAdeMO_map_in_130321.kml - Mapy Google
b) Tesla can cover the same areas with about 20 to 25 supercharger locations, for a cost of about $5 million.
c) Tesla customers would be happier with superchargers than with CHAdeMO.
d) Tesla would be happier with a charging infrastructure that
only their customers can use.
If Tesla creates a CHAdeMO adapter now, it instantly adds 30% future market share to CHAdeMO's potential customer base, giving a lot more legitimacy to U.S. CHAdeMO. And once available, you can't take that away again. With the way other EV companies are going right now, it's easy to imagine Tesla grabbing 50% of U.S. EV market share within 5 years before real competitors wake up and the number goes back down again. Tesla's moves now are
extremely consequential to influencing the market over the next few years. Executed correctly, Tesla can create a private feedback loop that no other vendor can touch.
Once you have a CHAdeMO adapter for Tesla, they give up that advantage. It suddenly starts making sense for more and more private installations of CHAdeMO. For that matter, there are enough people owning Tesla's that have the private funds available to pool together to install CHAdeMO outlets on various less-used highways. That would trigger an unwanted public feedback loop. As much as it is in Tesla's short-term benefit to have a great DC charging infrastructure, if is NOT in their long-term interest to have a DC infrastructure that all their competitors can
also use. Especially because CHAdeMO works so much better with a competitors vehicle than with a Tesla. Once you have ubiquitous CHAdeMO, Tesla's advantage of being the only road-trip capable EV goes bye-bye.
As a shareholder, given a choice between:
a) Tesla doing a $100 million capital raise now to install 500 supercharger throughout the world (200 in the U.S).
b) Tesla actively participating in furthering a DC charging standard that is virtually free for Tesla, but serves in benefiting their competitors more than them.
I would chose (a). Go ahead - dilute my shares by $1. (Actually... go create a short squeeze to get those suckers out of the market,
then go and dilute my shares by 50c.)
More importantly, I think Elon and the board would chose (a). Which is why I don't think we'll see a CHAdeMO adapter until Tesla's hand is forced on this one. If there is a large CHAdeMO rollout that makes it impossible or impractical to cover with SuperChargers then yes, absolutely, embrace that sucker. But while we're talking about something that can be covered with $5 million worth of SuperChargers... not so much.
What puzzles me is... this is easy and obvious. Why isn't this done yet? Or... is it? Does this thread become obsolete after the 4th chapter of the trilogy?