Changes coming, but what does this all mean?

[Newbie2023]

But then again, you paid more for that feature. Let’s face it, the safest way to park is in reverse. And the cameras are perfectly fine for that, especially at todays prices (and even more with tax credit, if applicable). I only say that to demonstrate what I just learned from this thread - that today is a great time to take delivery of a MYP, regardless of the lack of future or previous hardware. This is from a value perspective, in my opinion, and based on what I use the car for. Just relieved that HW4 won’t make what I need obsolete and the car’s hardware will serve the same purpose I expected at the time of my delivery Sure, I could have waited, but I would have to pay likely much more for that privilege, and I don’t see the benefit outweighing that cost

 

[Tofuprince]

But then again, you paid more for that feature. Let’s face it, the safest way to park is in reverse. And the cameras are perfectly fine for that, especially at todays prices (and even more with tax credit, if applicable). I only say that to demonstrate what I just learned from this thread - that today is a great time to take delivery of a MYP, regardless of the lack of future or previous hardware. This is from a value perspective, in my opinion, and based on what I use the car for. Just relieved that HW4 won’t make what I need obsolete and the car’s hardware will serve the same purpose I expected at the time of my delivery Sure, I could have waited, but I would have to pay likely much more for that privilege, and I don’t see the benefit outweighing that cost

Couldn't agree more. The MYP is an excellent value at its current price, even better than pre-covid. It's a known fact that you won't be getting radar or USS. If that is okay with you, it's the perfect time to buy.

Now if Tesla decides to take something away that you currently have, that's a different story.

 

[ewoodrick]

I ordered MYLR in Nov 2022 and got VIN assigned recently. Scheduled between Mar 2-16 for pickup. However, depending on the outcome of Mar 1 I will either accept delivery or cancel and wait.

My FOMO is real and I dont want to get my Y and three months later find out all MYs have more cameras etc and that I should have waited.

This is easy, a lot of Tesla is technology. If you don't want "better, cheaper, and newer" to pass you buy, then wait maybe 100 years or go somewhere else.

Technology WILL pass you buy, Tesla WILL change something in the car. BUT the big thing with a Tesla is that probably 99% of the changes that they make will retrofit into the older cars. 5 years after I got my Model 3, it has much more capabilities than when I bought it and there are few differences between it and the latest Model 3s.

 

[dubK]

This is easy, a lot of Tesla is technology. If you don't want "better, cheaper, and newer" to pass you buy, then wait maybe 100 years or go somewhere else.

Technology WILL pass you buy, Tesla WILL change something in the car. BUT the big think with a Tesla is that probably 99% of the changes that they make will retrofit into the older cars. 5 years after I got my Model 3, it has much more capabilities than when I bought it and there are few differences between it and the latest Model 3s.

I can tell you missed the point.
There’s a difference between taking delivery of a car that you know what is getting better in a couple of months or a car that you assume (obviously) is getting better sometime along the line. This is not a case about the next best thing like you portray it to be.

Yes, alot is technology, but this time it is not. I’m not talking about all the 99%(?) changes that could be retrofitted, I’m talking about a change that can not.

 

[Newbie2023]

I can tell you missed the point.
There’s a difference between taking delivery of a car that you know what is getting better in a couple of months or a car that you assume (obviously) is getting better sometime along the line. This is not a case about the next best thing like you portray it to be.

Yes, alot is technology, but this time it is not. I’m not talking about all the 99%(?) changes that could be retrofitted, I’m talking about a change that can not.

This isn’t my battle, but I can’t resist to share my thoughts: those with the past technology are faced with a lot of the same issues with HW3 v HW4, as those buying now - but you paid much more for it (and it was even more expensive then as the dollar is worth less than 2 years ago)! And those who wait for the future technology will have better tech - but at a higher net price.

One must decide if you want the iPhone 13 deeply discounted with a potential tax credit from the feds, or iPhone 14 at full price? And maybe you think iPhone 12 has a better camera, but, again, iPhone 13 is deeply discounted! And this is exaggerated mostly if you decide you need more than autopilot (with some exceptions, which have already been built into the price).

Again, if you are happy with the tech in its present form, you are ecstatic that you didn’t pay so much extra for the 0-5mph benefit of a few sensors.

 

[ewoodrick]

I can tell you missed the point.
There’s a difference between taking delivery of a car that you know what is getting better in a couple of months or a car that you assume (obviously) is getting better sometime along the line. This is not a case about the next best thing like you portray it to be.

Yes, alot is technology, but this time it is not. I’m not talking about all the 99%(?) changes that could be retrofitted, I’m talking about a change that can not.

So what feature do you expect not to exist in the Model Y that's sold today that WILL be one when HW4 is released in the Model Y probably a year from now (or longer)?

An ultrasonic sensor is NOT a feature, it's a part that enable a feature, for which there are also other solutions for.
Same for HW4, it's not a feature. At this point there are no features dependent on HW4 and may not be for years.

It's absolutely foolish to wait for HW4 for any of the cars at this point. It just means that you are going to be waiting for at least a year.

Think of it this way, what pressure does Tesla have to put HW4 in any of their cars today? None, absolutely ZERO.

 

[Newbie2023]

And, in a very unique situation, those who have the old technology and likely those who get the future technology will BOTH pay/paid more than those who take delivery today (and much more so if tax credits are in play). This is certainly true for all MYP owners from model inception (2019). Sure I can pay to have more, but I’m a value guy and hate paying more for features that I don’t value as much. That’s the reason I’m not a FSD’er either.

It comes down to the following for all, IMO:

1. Are the old sensors worth $13k (plus tax credits if applicable) more than todays deliveries?

2. Is the new hardware worth potentially thousands (or many thousands if you buy FSD where you are promised to see the greatest benefit) more (plus any lost applicable tax credits) than the current hardware?

Only you can decide, and then act accordingly. I decided for myself (with alot of luck and pricing help from Tesla in January) and I am now the proud new owner of a shiny new MYP (which I love!!). I realize I can’t have it all, and certainly don’t want to pay for it if I don’t need…my biggest fear with the new HW4 is that I would get stuff taken away from what I had at delivery (bait and switch), which I no longer believe is the case.

 

[Nubo]

FSD is a pipe dream anyway. Enjoy your car.

 

[tangible1]

Purchased 2023 MYP and took delivery a few weeks ago. Built in Fremont, has no USS of course, no Enhanced AP or FSD. What will be the deal eventually: will the car be able to use Tesla Vision for parking assist and other features (if so, what is your best guess on when)? How will HW4 impact me? Does Tesla usually update hardware for owners on the cusp of change (like updating any front sensors), if necessary, or will it provide a reasonably priced path for owners to retrofit/upgrade? I assume I will be ok otherwise? Please advise and thanks in advance!

net impact will be negligible as far as drivability and general features go.
parking sensing will be restored via TeslaVision (cameras) and Autopilot will work just as well on HW3 as HW4.

depreciation-wise, somewhat due to eventual HW4 release, but HW4 only really matters for FSD buyers - which are few and far between these days at $15K.

overall: just enjoy an excellent vehicle. ignore internet blog complaints. it cannot be beat by anything yet on the market.

 

[ewoodrick]

FSD is a pipe dream anyway. Enjoy your car.

Yep, I had a dream last weekend that I left a McDonalds and headed to a Costco 40 miles away, through a lot of surface streets and a medium sized city, over Interstate and the car drove up to the front door of the Costco with FSD the whole way, never turned off.

What was weird was that I actually was at McDonalds, and I actually was at Costco. Was I asleep, dreaming the whole way? If I was, evidently FSD got me there safely.

I do like dreams like that!

 

[ewoodrick]

but HW4 only really matters for FSD buyers - which are few and far between these days at $15K.

I believe that few and far between is about 30% of sales.

 

[dubK]

So what feature do you expect not to exist in the Model Y that's sold today that WILL be one when HW4 is released in the Model Y probably a year from now (or longer)?

An ultrasonic sensor is NOT a feature, it's a part that enable a feature, for which there are also other solutions for.
Same for HW4, it's not a feature. At this point there are no features dependent on HW4 and may not be for years.

It's absolutely foolish to wait for HW4 for any of the cars at this point. It just means that you are going to be waiting for at least a year.

Think of it this way, what pressure does Tesla have to put HW4 in any of their cars today? None, absolutely ZERO.

Lets put it like this, I would not want to miss out on more cameras which to me is going to help improve park assist when (if) it’s coming to Vision Only. I also believe that AP is going to be improved with the new radar. I dont care about FSD right now.
But both the cars will probably have close to the same features yes but one might be improved/work better.
That is just my take on it.

I also think that I’m going to get less value for the car if I decided to sell it in a few years.

That being said, how much I’m actually gonna miss out on for not having HW4 I don’t know, and I don’t know if it’s worth to wait and risk that the price will rocket. That is what I’m trying to figure out.

Lets hear what is going to be said on March 1st but I don’t think I am waiting for more than half a year. I do not think Elon will give us a date on when to expect HW4 in Y’s so I am leaning towards taking delivery next month instead of waiting.

 

[Newbie2023]

I will say I love driving the MYP…why would I give up that experience to a computer, even if it was free! And especially not for $15k! Besides, I’m a bit of a control freak and hate when others drive my car…

 

[dubK]

This isn’t my battle, but I can’t resist to share my thoughts: those with the past technology are faced with a lot of the same issues with HW3 v HW4, as those buying now - but you paid much more for it (and it was even more expensive then as the dollar is worth less than 2 years ago)! And those who wait for the future technology will have better tech - but at a higher net price.

One must decide if you want the iPhone 13 deeply discounted with a potential tax credit from the feds, or iPhone 14 at full price? And maybe you think iPhone 12 has a better camera, but, again, iPhone 13 is deeply discounted! And this is exaggerated mostly if you decide you need more than autopilot (with some exceptions, which have already been built into the price).

Again, if you are happy with the tech in its present form, you are ecstatic that you didn’t pay so much extra for the 0-5mph benefit of a few sensors.

Yes sir, I hear you.
That’s kinda what I’m trying to figure out.
The only thing I’m not happy with in its present form is the missing park assist. I hope it will come soon enough to the vision only cars but who knows really.

 

[Newbie2023]

If that’s the only thing, dubK, then I would pull the trigger at today’s net price. The 3/1 event, current demand / deliveries extended to Q2, perceived excitement around HW4, $80k tax ceiling, inflation, current slim historical price gap between MYP-MY-M3, cost for new hardware upgrades, etc will all inflate the future price on the MYP (it already has started!). And, in no reasonable scenario in the near future can I expect Tesla not to fix that issue with vision. But YMMV…

 

[ewoodrick]

Lets put it like this, I would not want to miss out on more cameras which to me is going to help improve park assist when (if) it’s coming to Vision Only. I also believe that AP is going to be improved with the new radar. I dont care about FSD right now.
But both the cars will probably have close to the same features yes but one might be improved/work better.
That is just my take on it.

I also think that I’m going to get less value for the car if I decided to sell it in a few years.

That being said, how much I’m actually gonna miss out on for not having HW4 I don’t know, and I don’t know if it’s worth to wait and risk that the price will rocket. That is what I’m trying to figure out.

Lets hear what is going to be said on March 1st but I don’t think I am waiting for more than half a year. I do not think Elon will give us a date on when to expect HW4 in Y’s so I am leaning towards taking delivery next month instead of waiting.

When do you expect the Cybertuck to ship?
Why would you not believe "The Cybertruck will be the first with HW4"
Why do you assume that the Model Y refresh, AFTER the Cybertruck is going to occur in less than 6 months?

I doubt if you will hear much about it next month, they've pretty much said all that's needed to come to a conclusion so far.

 

[tangible1]

I believe that few and far between is about 30% of sales.

Not even close.
the entire population of FSD buyers in North America is 285K, and the 'take rate' has declined precipitously.
at $15K, and delivery / formal release not on the horizon, you're better served taking the $200 monthly fee deal and play with it.
even fewer buyers are international.

note the date on the article below:

Tesla confirms 285,000 people bought Full Self-Driving

Tesla has confirmed that over 285,000 people bought its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package in North America.

electrek.co

 

[tangible1]

When do you expect the Cybertuck to ship?
Why would you not believe "The Cybertruck will be the first with HW4"
Why do you assume that the Model Y refresh, AFTER the Cybertruck is going to occur in less than 6 months?

I doubt if you will hear much about it next month, they've pretty much said all that's needed to come to a conclusion so far.

Tesla will introduce HW4 well before any production (or pre-production) of the CT

 

[Newbie2023]

Tesla Hardware 4 computer to be introduced with the Cybertruck next year

The Tesla Cybertruck will not only debut a revolutionary manufacturing process, it will also be the first vehicle in the company’s lineup to be equipped with Tesla’s Hardware 4 computer. Hardware 4 is the successor to the custom HW 3.0 computer that’s currently being deployed to the company’s...

www.teslarati.com

 

[tangible1]

Tesla Hardware 4 computer to be introduced with the Cybertruck next year

The Tesla Cybertruck will not only debut a revolutionary manufacturing process, it will also be the first vehicle in the company’s lineup to be equipped with Tesla’s Hardware 4 computer. Hardware 4 is the successor to the custom HW 3.0 computer that’s currently being deployed to the company’s...

www.teslarati.com

it's an internet blog, boys......and all it's really saying is that the CT will have HW4.

how does that report square with the actual, PCB version of HW4 that's been displayed via a Tesla hacking teardown guy?
and that came OUT OF A MODEL X.

just sayin'. CT won't be the first. HW4 is much closer to release than that.