Changes coming, but what does this all mean?

[ewoodrick]

I wasn’t poking at Elons performance. Heck, I think he did great because of his disability. My daughter who recently scored a 34 on the ACT without studying and top her class has OCD and traits of autism, etc. I won’t get into, has a hard time getting in front of people or simply being in group setting. Her IQ is off the charts but she has a hard time around lots of people. So, I understand him very well and feel for him. However, he could have had a much better presentation by utilizing a PR team and the CFO to guide the presentation much more smoothly. Believe me, I’m all for Elon.

This is Tesla, LET THE NERDS TALK! I don't want to hear a PR/Marketing team. The nerds had a lot of great explanations and details.

 

[starise]

You evidently have no reality in what replacing wiring harnesses and adding cameras to a vehicle would cost.

My suggestions were that the existing system could be augmented not redesigned. No need to replace wiring harnesses. The cameras are probably like 10.00 apeice.

My take on Investor Day-

I probably look at this a litle differently than an investor. I have more of the nerd angle here I think. I enjoyed hearing them describe the way they make the car along with logistics involved in getting one into our hands. Less pollution and sustainibility are good things, but I can understand why some thought it seemed to go on and on.

I don't blame them for being closed lipped about future car platform design developments in a world where anything can be copied very fast and where a future strategy needs to be kept away from the prying eyes of the competition which is basically all world EV makers. They should not be making it seem as if it's only months away if it's a few years away. These companies are always throwing these early carrots out there. Not just Tesla.

As I understand it, They will either need to retool for a different car in existing factories or build new factories. The most recent factory will likely be ground zero for the next car(s). Tesla needs so many batteries they need to get them from multiple sources in addition to making them in house and even own their own mining operations. I was impressed the motors and setup in the cars can be tweaked to run off of different kinds of packs and batteries. Their direction toward development is open sourced to what they have available to the most extent they can make it. Elon has surrounded himself with some good people who you can tell, work hard to make everything work and improve.

Would those who thought the show was underwhelming have been more excited to be lied to about a time frame or a yet non completed product?? I think this is what Elon is trying to avoid.

HW3, HW4 and FSD-

AI is often discussed as it is a development stack aimed in this direction. Many have reported the car taking over in dangerous situations and saving the day or avoiding a more serious accident.
Here is how I think HW4 will aid HW3 users. FSD has been all about collecting data since the inception. Not only are maps and various traffic situations analyzed, so is terrain and probably any unusual anomalies as they come up. This is all collected,shared and applied to ALL users. IOW data collected from HW4 will improve the HW3 experience. HW4 can tell HW3 things it didn't know up to a point.

Elon has said his goal is to have robo taxis. All of this study is merely leading up to it. I suspect that those who thought they were in an exclusive club with respect to FSD still will be, however as time marches on I see other plans on the horizon that more apply to those robo taxis and to a wider base of users. If they feel some of that function beginning to slip away in terms of adding FSD features to basic auto pilot, they can still know they helped to fund the transition. I for one, don't think things wll stay the same in this area. How they will be changing isn't something I can predict with clarity.

 

[ewoodrick]

1)My suggestions were that the existing system could be augmented not redesigned. No need to replace wiring harnesses. The cameras are probably like 10.00 apeice.

My take on Investor Day-

2) I probably look at this a litle differently than an investor. I have more of the nerd angle here I think. I enjoyed hearing them describe the way they make the car along with logistics involved in getting one into our hands. Less pollution and sustainibility are good things, but I can understand why some thought it seemed to go on and on.

3) I don't blame them for being closed lipped about future car platform design developments in a world where anything can be copied very fast and where a future strategy needs to be kept away from the prying eyes of the competition which is basically all world EV makers. They should not be making it seem as if it's only months away if it's a few years away. These companies are always throwing these early carrots out there. Not just Tesla.

4) As I understand it, They will either need to retool for a different car in existing factories or build new factories. The most recent factory will likely be ground zero for the next car(s). Tesla needs so many batteries they need to get them from multiple sources in addition to making them in house and even own their own mining operations. I was impressed the motors and setup in the cars can be tweaked to run off of different kinds of packs and batteries. Their direction toward development is open sourced to what they have available to the most extent they can make it. Elon has surrounded himself with some good people who you can tell, work hard to make everything work and improve.

5) Would those who thought the show was underwhelming have been more excited to be lied to about a time frame or a yet non completed product?? I think this is what Elon is trying to avoid.

HW3, HW4 and FSD-

6) AI is often discussed as it is a development stack aimed in this direction. Many have reported the car taking over in dangerous situations and saving the day or avoiding a more serious accident.
Here is how I think HW4 will aid HW3 users. FSD has been all about collecting data since the inception. Not only are maps and various traffic situations analyzed, so is terrain and probably any unusual anomalies as they come up. This is all collected,shared and applied to ALL users. IOW data collected from HW4 will improve the HW3 experience. HW4 can tell HW3 things it didn't know up to a point.

7) Elon has said his goal is to have robo taxis. All of this study is merely leading up to it. I suspect that those who thought they were in an exclusive club with respect to FSD still will be, however as time marches on I see other plans on the horizon that more apply to those robo taxis and to a wider base of users. If they feel some of that function beginning to slip away in terms of adding FSD features to basic auto pilot, they can still know they helped to fund the transition. I for one, don't think things wll stay the same in this area. How they will be changing isn't something I can predict with clarity.

I numbered paragraphs to make response flow easier.

1) You watched the show, you saw the pictures of the existing wiring harnesses, now go find them in the car. You can't? That's because they are behind panels and you've often got to take a lot out to get to those locations. If you add cameras, you've got to get the wire in there somehow.

4) Tesla does indeed stop the line periodically to retool. I think that China was stopped for a few weeks earlier this year. So even if it made sense to put HW4 in a Model 3 or Model Y and the brackets didn't fit perfectly, they'd tend to have to change things out. May have to stop the line, may not. But it makes a LOT more sense that if something big needs to be changed, that multiple changes be lumped together. Hence the reason that I believe if they are going to do it, they'll do it at refresh time. The line has to stop for a refresh.

6) While you might have heard it alluded to, the computers in the cars are redundant. It's not really real-time redundancy, more like fail-over. Tesla often uses the other computer for something else. As they explicitly mentioned, they often have something like the next release running on the offline computer. They are testing software, collecting data any time that they want to. It doesn't take any CPUs from the other computer; you never know it's there.
I'm not really sure why you expect HW4 to have any more information. Sure the cameras are higher resolution, but higher resolution really only comes into play when things are further away. I'm pretty sure that the car doesn't need high resolution to determine the passers-by eye color.
And you also saw that they already are using HW3 information to put together detailed maps of intersections. Look at the pictures on the screen. Are they really low resolution?

7) Not really sure where you are going with this. If this is a HW3 isn't going to do it but HW4 will, then why isn't there are cost difference? Sounds like an excellent opportunity to increase the cost again.

 

[starise]

1) You watched the show, you saw the pictures of the existing wiring harnesses, now go find them in the car. You can't? That's because they are behind panels and you've often got to take a lot out to get to those locations. If you add cameras, you've got to get the wire in there somehow.

I have directly been involved in a lot of things during my life, and often when I talk about something I draw from that knowledge. When I was like 21 I installed car stereos and so I have pulled apart literally dozens of cars. I just pulled apart my last car to add Android auto. Yes cars have changed since then, but all cars have wiring harnesses. Trust me when I say that with a few plastic tools almost any panel in a car can be removed, usually with little effort.
So I will go with the idea that Tesla just doesn't want to become bogged down in retrofits, not that they aren't possible. Probably not profitable for Tesla as they don't have techs with the time to do it. Not only that but there would be software changes to the new hardware, so I think we agree in priciple for why it isn't happening, I am saying it could happen if they had wanted it to happen. And how many owners really care to update? Most are ok with their present systems.

4) Tesla does indeed stop the line periodically to retool. I think that China was stopped for a few weeks earlier this year. So even if it made sense to put HW4 in a Model 3 or Model Y and the brackets didn't fit perfectly, they'd tend to have to change things out. May have to stop the line, may not. But it makes a LOT more sense that if something big needs to be changed, that multiple changes be lumped together. Hence the reason that I believe if they are going to do it, they'll do it at refresh time. The line has to stop for a refresh.

Yes they do retool and I think I read they are soon going to retool. It's probably naive to think all of these changes won't also mean the price of the car increases when it happens. When they move to make a completely different model though I believe they will have a dedicated factory for it. Mexico.

6) While you might have heard it alluded to, the computers in the cars are redundant. It's not really real-time redundancy, more like fail-over. Tesla often uses the other computer for something else. As they explicitly mentioned, they often have something like the next release running on the offline computer. They are testing software, collecting data any time that they want to. It doesn't take any CPUs from the other computer; you never know it's there.
I'm not really sure why you expect HW4 to have any more information. Sure the cameras are higher resolution, but higher resolution really only comes into play when things are further away. I'm pretty sure that the car doesn't need high resolution to determine the passers-by eye color.
And you also saw that they already are using HW3 information to put together detailed maps of intersections. Look at the pictures on the screen. Are they really low resolution?

The information is cumulative regardless. Higher resolution isn't only for distance. Those accidental braking issues were partly due to misidentification of a car as occupied when the car was empty and parked close by. The higher ez cameras will help. I am no expert on the new hardware. I do know it has more video cameras and a new radar. The benefit may only be 10 or 20%. Much like the hoopla over 4680 batteries, a lot of this is more about savings in manufacturing than direct benefit to the customer, although there is often also a customer benefit. There is some advantage to HW4. How much I can't say. It isn't just about hardware. I think it's also about how the software interprets what it sees and there seem to be several improvements in this area with HW4. I believe HW3 will indirectly benefit maybe to a lesser degree..

7) Not really sure where you are going with this. If this is a HW3 isn't going to do it but HW4 will, then why isn't there are cost difference? Sounds like an excellent opportunity to increase the cost again.

I think the cost will increase, unless HW4 is actually cheaper to make. Most of the benefit to HW3 users will be in the software analytics gathered from both systems. If HW4 'sees' something it gets reported to the cloud servers which will interpret it and add it to the mother program if necessary. HW3 systems will then be affected in positive ways by the info gathered.

 

[rjpjnk]

I numbered paragraphs to make response flow easier.

1) You watched the show, you saw the pictures of the existing wiring harnesses, now go find them in the car. You can't? That's because they are behind panels and you've often got to take a lot out to get to those locations. If you add cameras, you've got to get the wire in there somehow.

4) Tesla does indeed stop the line periodically to retool. I think that China was stopped for a few weeks earlier this year. So even if it made sense to put HW4 in a Model 3 or Model Y and the brackets didn't fit perfectly, they'd tend to have to change things out. May have to stop the line, may not. But it makes a LOT more sense that if something big needs to be changed, that multiple changes be lumped together. Hence the reason that I believe if they are going to do it, they'll do it at refresh time. The line has to stop for a refresh.

6) While you might have heard it alluded to, the computers in the cars are redundant. It's not really real-time redundancy, more like fail-over. Tesla often uses the other computer for something else. As they explicitly mentioned, they often have something like the next release running on the offline computer. They are testing software, collecting data any time that they want to. It doesn't take any CPUs from the other computer; you never know it's there.
I'm not really sure why you expect HW4 to have any more information. Sure the cameras are higher resolution, but higher resolution really only comes into play when things are further away. I'm pretty sure that the car doesn't need high resolution to determine the passers-by eye color.
And you also saw that they already are using HW3 information to put together detailed maps of intersections. Look at the pictures on the screen. Are they really low resolution?

7) Not really sure where you are going with this. If this is a HW3 isn't going to do it but HW4 will, then why isn't there are cost difference? Sounds like an excellent opportunity to increase the cost again.

Good point about the camera resolution. I wonder if any part of the current system is resolution limited? I doubt it, but maybe I missed something. Is Tesla claiming that more megapixels is improving some aspect of performance?

 

[ewoodrick]

Good point about the camera resolution. I wonder if any part of the current system is resolution limited? I doubt it, but maybe I missed something. Is Tesla claiming that more megapixels is improving some aspect of performance?

I haven't heard any claims. As far as I know, they may simply be increasing the resolution because the cameras are cheaper. So many things are that way these days. I've got some systems that ONLY need a 2GB disk drive. They are dedicated purpose and will never use anything more. But those things have become stupidly expensive and hard to find, so I have to use 500GB or even TB drives.

If anything, I think that they might actually be doing some "not really resolution" things with them. An example could be as simple as using an adjacent pixel it the other has issues. I more probable would be using the higher resolution to capture more light at night to see better. It still passes the current resolution through to the AI, but the nighttime picture more detailed. From some of my experience I know that the cameras have issues in dark areas.

There's a drive-in above me that has movies in the summer. And or course you leave the drive-in hours after darkness sets in. The road is a 4 lane divide road, but there's not much around it and it can get REALLY dark. NoA tends to kick on and off driving down this stretch on a perfect vision night. I think that it's just too dark for the cameras.

There're a few other optical tricks that can be played when you have more pixels, that's why you see phones with such ungodly high numbers of pixels.