Changes coming, but what does this all mean?

[Newbie2023]

Purchased 2023 MYP and took delivery a few weeks ago. Built in Fremont, has no USS of course, no Enhanced AP or FSD. What will be the deal eventually: will the car be able to use Tesla Vision for parking assist and other features (if so, what is your best guess on when)? How will HW4 impact me? Does Tesla usually update hardware for owners on the cusp of change (like updating any front sensors), if necessary, or will it provide a reasonably priced path for owners to retrofit/upgrade? I assume I will be ok otherwise? Please advise and thanks in advance!

 

[glide]

Purchased 2023 MYP and took delivery a few weeks ago. Built in Fremont, has no USS of course, no Enhanced AP or FSD. What will be the deal eventually: will the car be able to use Tesla Vision for parking assist and other features (if so, what is your best guess on when)? How will HW4 impact me? Does Tesla usually update hardware for owners on the cusp of change (like updating any front sensors), if necessary, or will it provide a reasonably priced path for owners to retrofit/upgrade? I assume I will be ok otherwise? Please advise and thanks in advance!

There may be a vision update that enables park sensing on your vehicle to be marginally useful. No one knows when.

HW4 will make your vehicle depreciate more quickly.

There will be no upgrade path.

Look on the bright side. At least you didn’t purchase in late 2022 when prices were sky high.

 

[Midpack]

Purchased 2023 MYP and took delivery a few weeks ago. Built in Fremont, has no USS of course, no Enhanced AP or FSD. What will be the deal eventually: will the car be able to use Tesla Vision for parking assist and other features (if so, what is your best guess on when)? How will HW4 impact me? Does Tesla usually update hardware for owners on the cusp of change (like updating any front sensors), if necessary, or will it provide a reasonably priced path for owners to retrofit/upgrade? I assume I will be ok otherwise? Please advise and thanks in advance!

There's no telling when (though some may guess for you), Tesla usually just updates on their timeline with little or no notice. But Tesla says the features lost with removing USS are temporary implying they will be restored, see quote 1 below. Whether they go back to USS for future production, or make Pure Vision work who knows - but it is reasonable to expect lost features will be restored somehow.

If you get a car with HW3, you will not be able to upgrade to HW4, see quote 2 below. There are YouTube videos showing the different format of the two, they are not at all "swappable."

For a short period of time during this transition, Tesla Vision vehicles that are not equipped with USS will be delivered with some features temporarily limited or inactive, including:

CEO Elon Musk was asked about the potential of Tesla offering retrofits to the new hardware for current Tesla owners, but the CEO shut down the idea:

The cost and difficulty of retrofitting Hardware 3 with Hardware 4 is quite significant. So it would not be, I think, economically feasible to do so.

 

[RCDriver23]

I am in the same boat having ordered a MYLR and expecting delivery next month. I’ve heard rumors about an announcement about HW4 on investors day (March 1), but I am skeptical the new hardware would be installed in MYs so soon. My main frustration with the loss of USS is the compromised parking assist ability. I am not so interested in the effect on FSD except for the potential depreciation when I sell down the line. I am tempted to wait, but I have a feeling the hardware may not be available for several months if not another year.

 

[Newbie2023]

Thanks All. Ok, I will live with it then, wishing for some sort of parking assist to come through (although I actually only need a line on the screen when in reverse and a maybe an audible warning as backing into the spot is best IMO). Now, when I pull nose-first into my garage, I flip on the back camera and use a taped line on floor near the door for reference when to stop). If Tesla priced the HW4 at a $13k premium, then I would have opted for the current set up, so can’t complain (unless the upgrades are at current pricing)! I guess I’m not too worried about depreciation as I’m a 10-year owner with all my new cars (HW4 will be just as outdated then, and I’m used to that) . Thanks again

 

[240vPlug]

Purchased 2023 MYP and took delivery a few weeks ago. Built in Fremont, has no USS of course, no Enhanced AP or FSD. What will be the deal eventually: will the car be able to use Tesla Vision for parking assist and other features (if so, what is your best guess on when)? How will HW4 impact me? Does Tesla usually update hardware for owners on the cusp of change (like updating any front sensors), if necessary, or will it provide a reasonably priced path for owners to retrofit/upgrade? I assume I will be ok otherwise? Please advise and thanks in advance!

My 2 cents:

1) Tesla says vision will be able to take the place of USS but I am skeptical. There is no camera in the bumper. Certain obstacles will not be visible to the camera in the windshield. Nobody knows when parking assist via vision will be available. It could be soon or it could be a year from now.

2) HW4 will be more desirable then HW3 so it will have some affect on value. How much remains to be seen.

3) Elon I believe has already said Tesla will not retrofit older vehicles with HW4 . Also, retrofitting at your own cost would likely be prohibitively expensive if not impossible due to software changes to the vehicle.

4) Otherwise you should be fine. Elon has already said that all current HW3 vehicles should be capable of FSD if/when its fully released (with the NHTSA recall nobody knows how FSD will be affected). Its still a good car and Tesla constantly makes changes so waiting for the next big change will result in never getting a vehicle because once one change is released another is on the horizon. Tesla must think Vision as at least as much capability as the USS so its possible they could work great. I personally wouldn't want to buy it until I know how well it works because parking sensors are extremely important to me. Thankfully mine has them.

 

[Newbie2023]

Thanks and all good points! Yeah, my consolation is that “value” only matters when you sell, and my sell date is a likely a long ways off (making the difference now impossible to factor in beyond “nominal”). My insurance provides a gap on if I wreck the MYP and need another.

Is Tesla looking to continue supporting those with USS in 5-10 years (I.e. was waiting to buy now better than buying earlier, as previous sales don’t have as many cameras)? Tesla is adding more cameras to HW4, and they added some when they did away with USS I assume(?), so maybe that’s better than some older sales with both USS and some cameras for a future Tesla driver? Maybe not, and that’s why this is so interesting to me

 

[GoVols!]

I am just rolling the dice until Mar. 1 to hear if HW.4 is mentioned and when we could see it in the MY before placing my MY order. I don't see Tesla increasing MY prices until the investor meeting.

 

[dubK]

I am just rolling the dice until Mar. 1 to hear if HW.4 is mentioned and when we could see it in the MY before placing my MY order. I don't see Tesla increasing MY prices until the investor meeting.

I ordered MYLR in Nov 2022 and got VIN assigned recently. Scheduled between Mar 2-16 for pickup. However, depending on the outcome of Mar 1 I will either accept delivery or cancel and wait.

My FOMO is real and I dont want to get my Y and three months later find out all MYs have more cameras etc and that I should have waited.

 

[Newbie2023]

I ordered MYLR in Nov 2022 and got VIN assigned recently. Scheduled between Mar 2-16 for pickup. However, depending on the outcome of Mar 1 I will either accept delivery or cancel and wait.

My FOMO is real and I dont want to get my Y and three months later find out all MYs have more cameras etc and that I should have waited.

Yeah, but I would think that you would have to pay a premium for that privilege. I am of the opinion that the MYP will be raised another $1k or $2k in the run-up to 3/1. And once HW4 is better baked, I would guess that Tesla would raise the price along the way, maybe even reaching or exceeding the 2022 peak, especially if the tax credit is sorted out in their favor in March. If so, would you pay $13k (assuming no tax credit for you) or more (with tax credit) for that privilege, or take the discount now (for “last year’s model”)? Personally, I would not as I will never go beyond Autopilot anyways. But YMMV

 

[Happy Hippo]

I ordered MYLR in Nov 2022 and got VIN assigned recently. Scheduled between Mar 2-16 for pickup. However, depending on the outcome of Mar 1 I will either accept delivery or cancel and wait.

My FOMO is real and I dont want to get my Y and three months later find out all MYs have more cameras etc and that I should have waited.

Even if they announce it, you do not know WHEN they will start implementing it in the cars. It can take months if that and then you will have to cancel your reservation and wait for it to be ready and at that point they will increase the price. decisions, decisions!!

 

[Happy Hippo]

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Yeah, but I would think that you would have to pay a premium for that privilege. I am of the opinion that the MYP will be raised another $1k or $2k in the run-up to 3/1. And once HW4 is better baked, I would guess that Tesla would raise the price along the way, maybe even reaching or exceeding the 2022 peak, especially if the tax credit is sorted out in their favor in March. If so, would you pay $13k (assuming no tax credit for you) or more (with tax credit) for that privilege, or take the discount now (for “last year’s model”)? Personally, I would not as I will never go beyond Autopilot anyways. But YMMV

I am with you. I took delivery and have a 2023 MY and like AP which is good enough for me. I would never pay for EAP, or FSD as they are not fully baked yet and doubt they will ever be close to full self driving as Elon is focusing on Cybertruck and everything else he has up his sleeve!

 

[SageBrush]

It is rare for me to park in tight places, but I was never particularly impressed with USS. I think surround view from cameras will be a lot more useful, and that is coming with HW4

 

[dubK]

Yeah, but I would think that you would have to pay a premium for that privilege. I am of the opinion that the MYP will be raised another $1k or $2k in the run-up to 3/1. And once HW4 is better baked, I would guess that Tesla would raise the price along the way, maybe even reaching or exceeding the 2022 peak, especially if the tax credit is sorted out in their favor in March. If so, would you pay $13k (assuming no tax credit for you) or more (with tax credit) for that privilege, or take the discount now (for “last year’s model”)? Personally, I would not as I will never go beyond Autopilot anyways. But YMMV

Yeah it will probably be more expensive. However, I ordered the MYLR before the price cuts but luckily the price was updated before the car was delivered. So essentially I was OK with paying the $13k even without HW4/more cameras announced.

I feel like it's different with HW4 announced though, I might regret buying the car now if the new HW4 is right around the corner.
I don't think we are gonna find out when MY will get HW4 so I don't know if I think it's worth waiting for e.g 1 year. So a part of me wants to just take the car while it's still very affordable.

At the same time I'm not even interested in FSD so should I even care about all of this?
Well, I think it's more to it than just FSD. I believe that the new set of cameras will benefit park assist with the blind spots etc, even improved AP. I also believe that as soon as HW4 launches for MY, the current MY will drastically lose value.
I feel like taking delivery of a MY 2023 gets you the worst possible version of the MY there's been.

I might overthink all of this but... yeah.

 

[dubK]

Even if they announce it, you do not know WHEN they will start implementing it in the cars. It can take months if that and then you will have to cancel your reservation and wait for it to be ready and at that point they will increase the price. decisions, decisions!!

Yeah that's the problem. I would probably wait months tho, but not a 1+ years.

So for me it comes down to:
Am I willing to maybe have to wait for a year to buy the car without knowing what the price would be.
Will HW4 benefit me enough even if I dont care about FSD to potentially have to pay a lot more for the car? I do like AP though. Should I still care?
If I decide to sell the car in a few years, how would it impact the value of the car not having HW4 when all the other MY's will have it?
Will the lower value of not having HW4 be higher than the potential increase in price I would have to pay for the HW4 MY.

I actually don't know what to do right now. I just want to see what March 1 has to offer first and we'll see.

 

[Midpack]

No matter when you buy/take delivery, it’s only a matter of time before your iteration is out of date. Unless EAP or FSD are must have for you, price is the primary driver. They aren’t going to lower the MY price again anytime soon, if ever.

 

[Newbie2023]

Yes - this exactly. Some of us are worried about depreciation of HW3 v. HW4, but if you get in at todays prices, and don’t use anything beyond autopilot, you automatically bake in the savings upfront - a savings that will likely offset any future depreciation concerns. If you buy a new car every 10 years, depreciation is not even a thing. (For those who can’t wait 10-years for the new tech, here’s what my 2-car family does: we stagger the 10 year hold, and buy a new car every 5 years, so we still get the feel of the “newer tech” upgrades without sacrificing personal finance. YMMV, but I am now looking forward to HW6.0 in my 5-year future, without depreciation concerns

Again, IMO, there is no way Tesla doesn’t raise today’s prices before or soon after the 3/1 event, with the prospect of continued inflation, the new $80k limit (and a possibility of the feds keeping / extending the credit terms), the fact that todays prices are lower than the 2019 rollout prices (even with inflation!), the MYP v MP price gap differential is historically the thinnest now, and the excitement being generated around the new FSD Beta software and HW4. We have seen this movie before, and it has never ended with MORE price cuts Again, what premium amount are we willing to pay for the latest hardware? If you wait and see, the number will be closer to $10k than $0 in my option, a steep price for a non- FSD user.

I guess I posted this originally to understand the impact of HW4 and if Tesla would do any upgrades. I now feel a bit better knowing my car will function fine (exactly as I expected it to at time of purchase, with some promises of increased functionality when the park assist bugs are worked out), and that the software updates will still support HW3 (the software is not obsolete).

 

[RCDriver23]

Thank you, everyone, for your great insights in this thread. I am a soon-to-be first time Tesla buyer. There are many new aspects to consider when buying a Tesla that I have never imagined in the past with ICE cars. It feels more like buying a tech gadget with all of the potential updates and refreshes on the horizon. But I guess Tesla is as much a tech company as a car company if not more.

I have ordered a MYLR and am expecting delivery late next month. I was having second thoughts upon hearing about the"imminence" of HW4. The primary enticing aspects for me would be a resolution of phantom braking, the return of parking assist, and a 360 degree birds eye view. I'm not interested in FSD. But now I realize that the new HW4 may solve some problems but come with an entirely new set of its own. Also there are no guarantees when it will come out- could be 1 month or 1 year.

I need a car relatively soon so I am going to buy it now and be thankful for the price cuts. I will wait and hope that parking assist returns with similar functionality as previous cars with USS. Overall, I think I would be content with the current car at the current price, so I'm going to proceed with it.

 

[Newbie2023]

Thank you, everyone, for your great insights in this thread. I am a soon-to-be first time Tesla buyer. There are many new aspects to consider when buying a Tesla that I have never imagined in the past with ICE cars. It feels more like buying a tech gadget with all of the potential updates and refreshes on the horizon. But I guess Tesla is as much a tech company as a car company if not more.

I have ordered a MYLR and am expecting delivery late next month. I was having second thoughts upon hearing about the"imminence" of HW4. The primary enticing aspects for me would be a resolution of phantom braking, the return of parking assist, and a 360 degree birds eye view. I'm not interested in FSD. But now I realize that the new HW4 may solve some problems but come with an entirely new set of its own. Also there are no guarantees when it will come out- could be 1 month or 1 year.

I need a car relatively soon so I am going to buy it now and be thankful for the price cuts. I will wait and hope that parking assist returns with similar functionality as previous cars with USS. Overall, I think I would be content with the current car at the current price, so I'm going to proceed with it.

Well said. And I would guess most MYLR buyers chose that trim over MYP as it’s more “practical” (better range, lower price, maybe a 7- seater, only trim that qualified for tax cut at time, and/or don’t find value in paying for widely perceived “higher-end” product). I only got the MYP because I thought the extras for the slightly higher price were historically low and a perceived better value now than at any other time (and tax credits weren’t in play).

With all that said, IMO, I don’t think paying more for HW4 makes sense for any value-seeking purchaser (and I believe worrying about depreciation is likely motivated by seeking value). If a third trim was offered with HW4 today, would you pay $7.5k or $13k or more for it, especially if you won’t pay for FSD as well? I think that is what it really comes down to when taking delivery now vs. months later. But, I think I’m digressing from the intent of my original post - sorry

 

[Fourdoor]

Purchased 2023 MYP and took delivery a few weeks ago. Built in Fremont, has no USS of course, no Enhanced AP or FSD. What will be the deal eventually: will the car be able to use Tesla Vision for parking assist and other features (if so, what is your best guess on when)? How will HW4 impact me? Does Tesla usually update hardware for owners on the cusp of change (like updating any front sensors), if necessary, or will it provide a reasonably priced path for owners to retrofit/upgrade? I assume I will be ok otherwise? Please advise and thanks in advance!

Tesla promised that vision only Auto Pilot would quickly be superior to the old vision plus radar system, this was almost two years ago, and I am still limited to 85 mph in Auto Pilot instead of the 90 mph radar equipped cars were capable of, and I am still limited to a minimum following distance of 2 instead of 1 like the radar equipped cars.

Good luck ever having as good of a parking experience as the USS equipped cars.

Keith