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China and Berlin production news
- Thread starter Mikescratch0
- Start date
In Q2 they reduced the number of ships due to less production, I wonder what the chances are that if production is now much higher than expected (as I think you suggested) that they throw an extra ship to EU this quarter
Maybe all those Glovis head our way.'Don't ask about the camera view' he said, anticipating my very thought.
All I know is that the ramp-up of MY post shutdown was not as fast as they hoped, although looking at the compounds it must be up to speed by now!In Q2 they reduced the number of ships due to less production, I wonder what the chances are that if production is now much higher than expected (as I think you suggested) that they throw an extra ship to EU this quarter
'Don't ask about the camera view' he said, anticipating my very thought.
They can sell them locally too, or in Asia, I was guessing they may want to send them to the area where thet had a shortage last quarter. That being said, depends on the Berlin ramp up too I guess, no need to ship cars half way around the world IF Berlin is ahead of schedule.
I know most people here are interested in MY, but some of us are M3 orders. Do you have any info re the M3 production ramp-up post M3 line upgrade. Going by your excellent daily report, it is also concerning that to date there only appear to be circa 6.5k of cars identified for Q3 so far. Looking at the SMMT registration data for Q1 there were 7,773 M3 and 7,774 MY registered . I thought Q3 was going to be a bumper quarter?
Seems like it, yes, however, no updates to the cars only the production lines.
You can predict when it was built from here, highest it goes to is 404xxx on 28th June, but they’d be through 406xxx looking at the run rate before July so I’d think it was before the July shutdown.
You can also see the impact of Covid on production. People come up with fancy spreadsheets which are just extrapolations of well established run rates based on actual data. I love data and love picking it apart.
The other thing about these projections, we don’t know what proportion of any production goes to which market. Australasia now have MYs and I think Tesla has expanded into Poland, Romania, Turkey etc relatively recently which will all require a slice.
You can also see the impact of Covid on production. People come up with fancy spreadsheets which are just extrapolations of well established run rates based on actual data. I love data and love picking it apart.
The other thing about these projections, we don’t know what proportion of any production goes to which market. Australasia now have MYs and I think Tesla has expanded into Poland, Romania, Turkey etc relatively recently which will all require a slice.
Zilla91
Active Member
Can someone explain why Berlin is struggling to do something as basic as painting cars anything other than black or white?
As far as I know, Berlin doesn't make cars with white interior yet. So it would have to come from Shanghai, unless I have missed something.Hasn't it been said several times lately that Berlin is making MY LR in white and black, which would mean your car could be coming from there?
This thread is hard enough to follow, Berlin isn't helping as it's introducing some confusion, but anyone awaiting a LHD MY in white or black needs to wait until you have a vin which will establish the factory before contributing to avoid adding to the confusion.
EDDs also move around all the time. Without something more substantial to link it to like a vin appearing, I struggle to see how we can make sense of it. Even Tesla's Dojo computer would struggle!
Anyway, the main question was the difference in departure deadline for delivery to UK vs. Norway. It may have been mentioned earlier in the thread, but I did spend some time searching without finding the answer.
XHabjab
TSLA Bull
I don’t know what, exactly, but my spider sense tells me that something exciting is going to happen here fairly soon:
They are not all export though, in fact the vast majority will be heading to other Chinese ports.
The Troy Teslike estimate for Q3 MY deliveries to China is a staggering 120,000! 160,000 in Q4!
nrushforth
Member
Given the production rate from the Shanghai factory now, do you think we will move away from the quarter end rush (which had been alluded to sometime last year) to a steady flow of ships delivering cars, when available, to all countries that China exports to?
Therefore could we see ships going to EU/UK in the days to come, even if that means they are mid voyage at quarter end?
Just a thought!!! (and hope that I may get my car before Nov - Dec
)
Therefore could we see ships going to EU/UK in the days to come, even if that means they are mid voyage at quarter end?
Just a thought!!! (and hope that I may get my car before Nov - Dec
)
BabyYodasCar
Member
That's a very good question. I am new to this group and I am guessing this has been answered before..... I do not understand why my delivery date is Nov-Dec. What happened to Oct? do Tesla not deliver in the first month of each qtr?Given the production rate from the Shanghai factory now, do you think we will move away from the quarter end rush (which had been alluded to sometime last year) to a steady flow of ships delivering cars, when available, to all countries that China exports to?
Therefore could we see ships going to EU/UK in the days to come, even if that means they are mid voyage at quarter end?
Just a thought!!! (and hope that I may get my car before Nov - Dec
Apologies I know this is not related to shipping news but not sure where it should live!
Tesla wants to have as many cars as possible in each quarter.
Therefore, as sending from China takes around a month, they produce the first and second month of each quarter (China), to get the deliveries done in the second and third month (Europe).
The third month (China) is used for national production, which is not small.
That is why, in Europe, delivery dates are (aproximately):
15 Feb - 30 Mar
15 May - 30 Jun
15 Aug - 30 Sept
15 Nov - 30 Dec
Tesla try to have no cars in transit over a quarter end, given the time from build to delivery from China and the US that means they don't build or ship over quarter end for europe That in turn means nothing arrives the first month of the quarter.
BabyYodasCar
Member
rowedav
Member
Thanks for this. I'm a July order and was wondering the same. With the seemingly impressive production out of Shanghai at the moment, I was thinking I could get my car earlier, maybe some time in October but you've cleared that up. Maybe I'll stop checking my EDD every day now for a little while
Chimpy McChimp
Member
Full disclosure. I have no idea what I am talking about when it comes to Tesla deliveries. But if they can make cars at a rate of a couple of thousand a day I have to imaging they want them going in a steady stream out to customers as full ships are ready (if indeed they can get ships...) As that will be a lot of cars to sit taking up space somehere and a lot of money tied up in those cars.Given the production rate from the Shanghai factory now, do you think we will move away from the quarter end rush (which had been alluded to sometime last year) to a steady flow of ships delivering cars, when available, to all countries that China exports to?
Therefore could we see ships going to EU/UK in the days to come, even if that means they are mid voyage at quarter end?
Just a thought!!! (and hope that I may get my car before Nov - Dec
Anyway. I'm just guessing as I really don't have a scooby on how Tesla so this. I'm just hopeful the production ramp up means my EDD of Nov 15 to December 30 ends up wrong!
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