The Great Lakes region is warming faster than the rest of the U.S., a trend that is likely to bring more extreme storms while also degrading water quality, worsening erosion and posing tougher challenges for farming, scientists report.
In a report commissioned by the Chicago-based Environmental Law & Policy Center, the annual mean air temperature in the region increased 0.89 C in the periods 1901-60 and 1985-2016 — compared to 0.67 C for the rest of U.S.
The region includes portions of the U.S. Midwest, Northeast and southern Canada.
Warming is expected to continue this century, with rates depending on how much heat-trapping gases — like carbon dioxide and methane — are pumped into the atmosphere.
As the air warms, it will hold more moisture, which will likely mean heavier winter snowstorms and spring rains. There could also be more flooding in vulnerable areas.
Not only that, summers will be hotter and drier.
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A warming climate will add to the stresses the lakes have suffered from industrial pollution and development, according to the report, in particular the overflows from urban sewer systems that carry harmful bacteria.
While annual U.S. precipitation increased four per cent between 1901 and 2015, it jumped nearly 10 per cent in the Great Lakes region. Much of that increase was due to unusually large storms, the report says.
Future precipitation is likely to happen less evenly, decreasing five to 15 per cent in the summer by 2100.
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Heat waves should become more common, posing risks for elderly people and children with asthma. By the end of the century, the region should have up to 40 additional days with temperatures exceeding 32.2 C (90 F).
While winter snowfall should decrease in most places, areas accustomed to lake-effect squalls can expect them to dump even more snow — particularly along the Lake Ontario snowbelt in New York.
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The region could have longer growing seasons, said Brad Cardinale at the University of Michigan's Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research.
However, the report suggests that the benefit could be offset by wetter springs that make it harder to plant crops.
Not only that, increasing drought and heat in the summer could hit the agriculture industry hard.
The report predicts that corn and soybean crop yields will go down by 10 to 30 per cent by the end of this century.
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