Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[mspohr]

The science of influencing people: six ways to win an argument

The science of influencing people: six ways to win an argument

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters of religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s,” wrote Mark Twain.
Having written a book about our most common reasoning errors, I would argue that Twain was being rather uncharitable – to monkeys. Whether we are discussing Trump, Brexit, or the Tory leadership, we have all come across people who appear to have next to no understanding of world events – but who talk with the utmost confidence and conviction. And the latest psychological research can now help us to understand why.

....
From the comments, a quote from Goebels.
"There was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyway always yield to the stronger, and this will always be "the man in the street." Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology."

 

[DragonWatch]

I am the first to be called "chicken little" running around yelling the sky is falling. My life is filled with chick filet(s) where I planted with my father over five hundred trees in Paradise, California in, I think, 1967. My wife and I have planted another several hundred, almost like "johnny apple seed" across the nation. In the military we moved a lot.

As a young Eagle Scout I learned that leadership was like a piece of string laid out in front of you in a straight line. If as the leader you pull in the direction you wish it to go, then it will follow. Conversely, if you push from behind the string bunches up and fails to go where you intended.

What I learned from life, having struggled through the first five enlisted army ranks and first five army officer ranks is that you can more effectively lead from within. This includes four years teaching leadership to officer cadets. Rewards are not in promotions, money, or medals; but in the gratitude from followers, peers and seniors; and I am not referring to the boot licking variety. I am talking about the young college female that catches you waiting in line for that desperately needed decaf over-sized coffee loaded with cream; and tells you how you as her teacher turned her life around and she gets nothing but "A's" now and is withing a quarter of graduating. Trust me when I say I had my doubts during the quarter when she failed to attend, did not shine on her test scores; or maybe it was the tattoos and body piercing jewelry.

No one needs to be an intellectual to see what lies ahead. I scare even myself as I look out over the horizon and write of what humans have to face. But the best statement I have ever heard was, "doubt or argue all you want, but you cannot hold your breath long enough waiting for the world to right-itself." It was something like that, and I am hoping that you grasp the intended concept.

I scared some scientists on climate change in Canada about fifteen years ago when I said they needed to grow a pair and push hard against the opposition. Not long after that I adopted my own military call-sign "MajorBS49." That is my retired military rank, actual initials and year and make of this model. The hardest part of life is finding the truth and sticking to the truth despite the opposition

 

[Swampgator]

I am the first to be called "chicken little" running around yelling the sky is falling. My life is filled with chick filet(s) where I planted with my father over five hundred trees in Paradise, California in, I think, 1967. My wife and I have planted another several hundred, almost like "johnny apple seed" across the nation. In the military we moved a lot.

As a young Eagle Scout I learned that leadership was like a piece of string laid out in front of you in a straight line. If as the leader you pull in the direction you wish it to go, then it will follow. Conversely, if you push from behind the string bunches up and fails to go where you intended.

What I learned from life, having struggled through the first five enlisted army ranks and first five army officer ranks is that you can more effectively lead from within. This includes four years teaching leadership to officer cadets. Rewards are not in promotions, money, or medals; but in the gratitude from followers, peers and seniors; and I am not referring to the boot licking variety. I am talking about the young college female that catches you waiting in line for that desperately needed decaf over-sized coffee loaded with cream; and tells you how you as her teacher turned her life around and she gets nothing but "A's" now and is withing a quarter of graduating. Trust me when I say I had my doubts during the quarter when she failed to attend, did not shine on her test scores; or maybe it was the tattoos and body piercing jewelry.

No one needs to be an intellectual to see what lies ahead. I scare even myself as I look out over the horizon and write of what humans have to face. But the best statement I have ever heard was, "doubt or argue all you want, but you cannot hold your breath long enough waiting for the world to right-itself." It was something like that, and I am hoping that you grasp the intended concept.

I scared some scientists on climate change in Canada about fifteen years ago when I said they needed to grow a pair and push hard against the opposition. Not long after that I adopted my own military call-sign "MajorBS49." That is my retired military rank, actual initials and year and make of this model. The hardest part of life is finding the truth and sticking to the truth despite the opposition

Umm, ok.

 

[Dr. J]

Umm, ok.

I think you mean, "Umm, ok, sir!"

 

[Dr. J]

I am the first to be called "chicken little" running around yelling the sky is falling. My life is filled with chick filet(s) where I planted with my father over five hundred trees in Paradise, California in, I think, 1967. My wife and I have planted another several hundred, almost like "johnny apple seed" across the nation. In the military we moved a lot.

As a young Eagle Scout I learned that leadership was like a piece of string laid out in front of you in a straight line. If as the leader you pull in the direction you wish it to go, then it will follow. Conversely, if you push from behind the string bunches up and fails to go where you intended.

What I learned from life, having struggled through the first five enlisted army ranks and first five army officer ranks is that you can more effectively lead from within. This includes four years teaching leadership to officer cadets. Rewards are not in promotions, money, or medals; but in the gratitude from followers, peers and seniors; and I am not referring to the boot licking variety. I am talking about the young college female that catches you waiting in line for that desperately needed decaf over-sized coffee loaded with cream; and tells you how you as her teacher turned her life around and she gets nothing but "A's" now and is withing a quarter of graduating. Trust me when I say I had my doubts during the quarter when she failed to attend, did not shine on her test scores; or maybe it was the tattoos and body piercing jewelry.

No one needs to be an intellectual to see what lies ahead. I scare even myself as I look out over the horizon and write of what humans have to face. But the best statement I have ever heard was, "doubt or argue all you want, but you cannot hold your breath long enough waiting for the world to right-itself." It was something like that, and I am hoping that you grasp the intended concept.

I scared some scientists on climate change in Canada about fifteen years ago when I said they needed to grow a pair and push hard against the opposition. Not long after that I adopted my own military call-sign "MajorBS49." That is my retired military rank, actual initials and year and make of this model. The hardest part of life is finding the truth and sticking to the truth despite the opposition

My life experience is almost diametrically opposed to yours, except for the tree planting, and you've done about 100x the number I've done there. I admire the way you roll.

 

[mspohr]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...-limit-research-finds/?utm_term=.e74a3e4fc9e2

A new study finds we’ve already installed enough fossil fuel infrastructure to commit to more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of planetary warming, even without new planned installations.

This fossil fuel infrastructure merely needs to continue operating over the course of its expected lifetime, and the world will emit over 650 billion tons of carbon dioxide, more than enough to dash chances of limiting the Earth’s warming to a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius (or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). That’s a level of warming that has become increasingly accepted as a scientific line-in-the-sand.

And it gets worse: Proposals and plans are currently afoot for additional coal plants and other infrastructure that would add another nearly 200 billion tons of emissions to that total. Some of these are now actually under construction. In other words, human societies would need not only to cancel all such pending projects but also timeout existing projects early, in order to bring emissions down adequately.

And the picture is actually worse than the study suggests, because the research does not include emissions caused by human-led deforestation of tropical forests and other landscapes.

 

[Merrill]

Do not understand the continuing coal builds when so many are declaring bankruptcy.

 

[mspohr]

Climate change made European heatwave at least five times likelier

Climate change made European heatwave at least five times likelier

The record-breaking heatwave that struck France and other European nations in June was made at least five – and possibly 100 – times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists have calculated.

Such heatwaves are also about 4C hotter than a century ago, the researchers say. Furthermore, the heatwaves hitting Europe are more frequent and more severe than climate models have predicted.

Dr Friederike Otto, of the University of Oxford, one of the scientists behind the new analysis, said: “This is a strong reminder again that climate change is happening here and now. It is not a problem for our kids only.”

 

[Swampgator]

Wait, how did this happen last summer?
Arctic fox astounds scientists by trekking 2,176 miles in 76 days — from Norway to Canada

 

[ZsoZso]

Wait, how did this happen last summer?
Arctic fox astounds scientists by trekking 2,176 miles in 76 days — from Norway to Canada

Ever since summer happens to be in March - May interval on the North Hemisphere, anything is possible!

from the article you linked:

The young female had been tracked via a GPS device installed by researchers at the Polar Institute in Norway, releasing her into the wild in March 2018, BBC News said.

Twenty-one days later she had reached Greenland, BBC News said, about 940 miles from her starting point. A mere 76 days after she left Svalbard, the fox was found on Ellesmere Island in Nunavut, Canada.

Oh, wait a minute, some say summer only starts at the end of June ?

 

[jerry33]

Oh, wait a minute, some say summer only starts at the end of June ?

The calendar no longer has much to do with the weather.

 

[Swampgator]

Ever since summer happens to be in March - May interval on the North Hemisphere, anything is possible!

from the article you linked:


Oh, wait a minute, some say summer only starts at the end of June ?

My bad. March, April, and May where I live is summer! Still, the fact there was solid ICE all the way to Canada even in May means the ice caps have not melted as predicted.

The Arctic was predicted by James Hansen, Al Gore, and NASA to be ice free by now in the summer. Here is the current sea Ice extent as of July 1rst.

:

 

[Dr. J]

My bad. March, April, and May where I live is summer! Still, the fact there was solid ICE all the way to Canada even in May means the ice caps have not melted as predicted.

The Arctic was predicted by James Hansen, Al Gore, and NASA to be ice free by now in the summer. Here is the current sea Ice extent as of July 1rst. View attachment 425639 :

You can sure knock the crap out of that straw man. Kudos.

 

[Swampgator]

You can sure knock the crap out of that straw man. Kudos.
View attachment 425643

So by that graph the sea ice extent is the same as it was on this date in 2012? Kudos to you sir

So arctic sea ice extent is unchanged over the past 7 years, even while CO2 has gone up from 400 to 415? Oh wait.............

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

So by that graph the sea ice extent is the same as it was on this date in 2012? Kudos to you sir

So arctic sea ice extent is unchanged over the past 7 years, even while CO2 has gone up from 400 to 415? Oh wait.............

And again: You are DEAD WRONG!!!

Source: Arctic Sea Ice Minimum | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

Source: Arctic sea ice decline - Wikipedia


Additional sources below. All based on real Climate Science:

https://skepticalscience.com/Arctic-sea-ice-melt-natural-or-man-made.htm

https://skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm

https://skepticalscience.com/himalayan-glaciers-growing.htm

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

So by that graph the sea ice extent is the same as it was on this date in 2012? Kudos to you sir

So arctic sea ice extent is unchanged over the past 7 years, even while CO2 has gone up from 400 to 415? Oh wait.............

For more than the last two decades, more than 97% of the climate scientists on this planet has been in consensus that humanity is behind the current global warming!

And ’the rest’ have never had a credible alternate explanation...

So... For more than the last two decades now it’s been kind of weird reading stuff like what you are posting…

Mobile phones work because of science!
Airplanes fly because of science!
Heart surgery on infants is possible because of science!
The international Space Station is possible because of science!

But for some surreal and completely delusional reason you just can not understand a 97% consensus among climate scientists…

 

[SR22pilot]

And again: You are DEAD WRONG!!!

View attachment 425827


Source: Arctic Sea Ice Minimum | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

Source: Arctic sea ice decline - Wikipedia


Additional sources below. All based on real Climate Science:

https://skepticalscience.com/Arctic-sea-ice-melt-natural-or-man-made.htm

https://skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm

https://skepticalscience.com/himalayan-glaciers-growing.htm

There you go again using facts and science. How dastardly of you.

As I said in an earlier post, it is amazing how the denier community acts as if they have discovered something new or as if scientists are involved in some grand plot to hide evidence. In actuality, scientists have evaluated the denier arguments and shown that they are invalid. This has reduced the denier community to the "Merchants of Doubt" argument of saying "But your models aren't perfect."

At one time people thought objects naturally slowed down. They didn't understand air resistance. It is as if scientists had shown Newton's laws to be accurate (at low velocities) and people were saying "But when I throw a wad of paper it slows down. There is proof the scientists are wrong." Today we look back and say it is obvious that smoking tobacco is harmful. I am old enough to remember when the "experts" for the tobacco companies used the "Merchants of Doubt" arguments to say there was no proof. Executives testifying before congress flat out lied under oath. They should have been put in jail for perjury. Today we have the same thing.

 

[S'toon]

There you go again using facts and science. How dastardly of you.

As I said in an earlier post, it is amazing how the denier community acts as if they have discovered something new or as if scientists are involved in some grand plot to hide evidence. In actuality, scientists have evaluated the denier arguments and shown that they are invalid. This has reduced the denier community to the "Merchants of Doubt" argument of saying "But your models aren't perfect."

At one time people thought objects naturally slowed down. They didn't understand air resistance. It is as if scientists had shown Newton's laws to be accurate (at low velocities) and people were saying "But when I throw a wad of paper it slows down. There is proof the scientists are wrong." Today we look back and say it is obvious that smoking tobacco is harmful. I am old enough to remember when the "experts" for the tobacco companies used the "Merchants of Doubt" arguments to say there was no proof. Executives testifying before congress flat out lied under oath. They should have been put in jail for perjury. Today we have the same thing.

...and often it's the same scientists that the Tobacco industry used!

 

[Mader Levap]

 

[SR22pilot]

...and often it's the same scientists that the Tobacco industry used!

You should have said “scientists.” Many of the PR people are the same too. I keep mentioning Merchants of Doubt because it is eye opening. When the guy brags about getting people to send hate mail to the children of climate scientists it shows how low these people will go.