Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) SpaceX and Boeing Developments

[Grendal]

Commercial Crew is progressing well. NASA thinks that SpaceX and Boeing will launch astronauts in 2018.

Commercial Crew on tight but achievable timeline for crewed flights in 2018 | NASASpaceFlight.com

"SpaceX’s uncrewed demo flight is currently scheduled for later this year, in November, ahead of the crewed demo flight in May 2018."

Edit: And I just caught this: "At present, Boeing’s uncrewed demonstration flight is slated for June 2018 ahead of the crewed demo flight in August 2018."

So if everything goes as scheduled then SpaceX will have a crewed launch before Boeing even has their uncrewed demo flight.

 

[adiggs]

I'm excited to hear about the progress on this. I find as I read about the planned milestones that my own reaction to Boeing's schedule of uncrewed flight in June, with crewed flight in August, not really realistic. The implication to me is that whatever might be learned by the uncrewed flight is effectively unincorporatable into the crewed flight. So to maintain schedule, Boeing will have to have a perfect first flight from which they derive no ideas for improvement OR the planned August flight will slip when the start incorporating learnings from the first flight.

If I were a project manager, I would be a lot more happy with SpaceX's plan than Boeing's.

If I were NASA .. well, let's just say that I'm glad BOTH providers aren't on Boeing's schedule I'd be hedging my bets a little with SpaceX with the possibility of pulling in SpaceX flights should Boeing start to slip. Of course either and both can slip, but it's easy for me to imagine Boeing slipping into '19 on their current schedule.

 

[miimura]

I think Boeing is counting on the data from the un-crewed flight proving that they are ready with what they have.

 

[adiggs]

I think Boeing is counting on the data from the un-crewed flight proving that they are ready with what they have.

Yeah, that's how I read it too. Cuz, you know, space is easy. And crewed space is even easier.

 

[Grendal]

SpaceX has had a bump in its timeline for Commercial Crew. The unscrewed flight has been moved to March 2018 from November 2017. On the positive side is that the March Date has been reserved. So it is a lot more solid commitment from both sides of NASA and SpaceX to make the launch occur.

 

[e-FTW]

unscrewed

Those flights sound crazy!

 

[Grendal]

Lots of news on SpaceX development for Commercial Crew in this article:

Commercial Crew providers making “significant progress” toward first flights | NASASpaceFlight.com

Add in what was learned from Gwynne Shotwell in her recent interview and it seems that SpaceX is on track for very late 2017 or early 2018 for the first Dragon 2 demonstration flight. That will be followed by the "in-flight" abort test which will then lead to the first crewed flight.

 

[ecarfan]

@Grendal thanks for the link. There are two images in that article that show a Dragon trunk with solar panels on the surface of the vehicle. Is that really the way it is going to look?

 

[Grendal]

@Grendal thanks for the link. There are two images in that article that show a Dragon trunk with solar panels on the surface of the vehicle. Is that really the way it is going to look?

Good question. Animations are fun but are usually inaccurate. I suppose it will come down to whether the D2 has enough stored energy aboard that it only needs a small amount of solar energy. Otherwise the trunk would have storage for larger solar panels just like the Dragon 1 has now. Maybe for the shorter trip to the ISS the larger panels won't be needed. I expect for something longer like the cislunar private flight you'd need much larger panels like D1 has.

 

[Grendal]

An update on the timetable today from NASA:

NASA’s Commercial Crew Program Target Flight Dates | Commercial Crew Program

Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test: June 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test: August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1: February 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): June 2018

 

[adiggs]

An update on the timetable today from NASA:

NASA’s Commercial Crew Program Target Flight Dates | Commercial Crew Program

Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test: June 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test: August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1: February 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): June 2018

Gotta give it up for Boeing - I think the June / August '18 timeframes were what they originally published a year or two ago, and I don't think they've budged at all. I continue to believe that orbital flight in June '18, whether realistic or not, with crewed flight 2 months later, is .. extraordinarily unrealistic. The hardware will have already been built - 2 months for the schedule implies nothing will be learned that needs to be incorporated (or only of such minor changes, it can easily be retrofitted).

But hey - they haven't yet hit a milestone that would force a change to the overall schedule.

And most importantly, I'm a data / software geek - not a rocket scientist. It's just my opinion and it'd be easy for me to be wrong

I'm hoping both experience wild success, sooner than later.

 

[Grendal]

Gotta give it up for Boeing - I think the June / August '18 timeframes were what they originally published a year or two ago, and I don't think they've budged at all. I continue to believe that orbital flight in June '18, whether realistic or not, with crewed flight 2 months later, is .. extraordinarily unrealistic. The hardware will have already been built - 2 months for the schedule implies nothing will be learned that needs to be incorporated (or only of such minor changes, it can easily be retrofitted).

But hey - they haven't yet hit a milestone that would force a change to the overall schedule.

And most importantly, I'm a data / software geek - not a rocket scientist. It's just my opinion and it'd be easy for me to be wrong

I'm hoping both experience wild success, sooner than later.

You have to give it up to Elon. He can be very fair (at times) when it comes to these things. At his most recent talk with the Governors, he could have pointed out how much more expensive his competition is compared to SpaceX. Instead he points out how competition is good and that NASA is doing things the right way.

 

[Grendal]

Here is a link to the latest Commercial Crew Status Update from NASA:

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/ccp_nac_july24_2017.pdf

 

[e-FTW]

Here is a link to the latest Commercial Crew Status Update from NASA:

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/ccp_nac_july24_2017.pdf

Thank you, although that document gives me “acronym numbness”.

 

[scaesare]

Thank you, although that document gives me “acronym numbness”.

The last slide is for you!

 

[e-FTW]

The last slide is for you!

Correct! But I got Death by PowerPoint before I got there...

 

[HVM]

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk

Pics of SpaceX spacesuit developed for NASA commercial crew program coming out next week. Undergoing ocean landing mobility/safety tests.

 

[Grendal]

Elon just revealed an image of the SpaceX space suit:

 

[AudubonB]

It's not my strong suit - but to me "double vacuum pressure" smacks of belonging hanging next to "one hand clapping".

 

[bxr140]

A vacuum doesn't mean zero pressure.