Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) SpaceX and Boeing Developments

[ecarfan]

From that article:

Steve Stich, NASA commercial crew program manager, said most of the work needed to prepare the CFT mission for launch to the International Space Station will be done by April. An exception, he said, is certification work on the capsule’s parachutes. “There’s no issues or concerns with the parachute system,” he said. “It’s just a matter of going through all that data and looking at the data and making sure we’re ready to go fly safely.”

The parachutes are installed on the spacecraft, but Stich said one more ground test is planned of an element of the parachute system, a parachute that removes the cover on the top of the spacecraft to expose the rest of the parachute deployment system. That test is designed to confirm that it can operate as planned in what he described as the “highest possible regime” during an abort.

This will be the third Starliner mission. I have to wonder why this chute test was not done and certified years ago. It’s a ground-based test.

 

[Grendal]

NASA safety panel skeptical of Starliner readiness for crewed flight

A safety panel chair urged NASA not to rush into a crewed test flight of Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner, calling for an independent review of technical issues.

spacenews.com

 

[Grendal]

NASA and Boeing say preparations continue for July Starliner test flight

NASA and Boeing said May 26 they are still working towards a July launch of the CST-100 Starliner on a crewed test flight despite “emerging issues”.

spacenews.com

 

[mongo]

NASA update at 4:30 eastern today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664345185394761737

 

[mongo]

Bumped to 5

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664367828152074241

 

[HVM]

Not good:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664377812684357633

"Starliner delayed again.

Boeing has found two new issues via the latest review.

1) Parachute System - soft links (made of fabric) load limit data wasn't correct and restest showed failure at a loading point.

2) Wire harnesses covered in tape. The tape is now determined to be flammable.

Boeing is standing down the preps for the CFT mission.

The vehicle may need to be dissembled to correct. Valve also failed during preps for prop load, which has been canceled away with this stand-down. Valve was replaced."

 

[HVM]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664377739380391941

Q: Is a Starliner launch this year feasible?

Nappi: it's feasible, but don't want to commit to any timeframes.

 

[ecarfan]

Eric Berger’s take on the news.

This is just unbelievable, even for Starliner!

The issues seem rather serious to have been discovered weeks before Starliner was due to launch on an Atlas V rocket. The first involves "soft links" in the lines that run from Starliner to its parachutes. Boeing discovered that these were not as strong as previously believed.

During a normal flight, these substandard links would not be an issue. But Starliner's parachute system is designed to land a crew safely in case one of the three parachutes fails. However, due to the lower failure load limit with these soft links, if one parachute fails, it's possible the lines between the spacecraft and its remaining two parachutes would snap due to the extra strain.

The second issue involves P-213 glass cloth tape that is wrapped around wiring harnesses throughout the vehicle. These cables run everywhere, and Nappi said there are hundreds of feet of these wiring harnesses. The tape is intended to protect the wiring from nicks. However, during recent tests, it was discovered that under certain circumstances possible in flight, this tape is flammable.

Based on that, Boeing will have to redesign and then re-qualify the chutes, and change the wiring insulation.

Or will NASA decide to change its own criteria as to what is acceptable?

This is yet another disaster for Starliner. I’m wondering if it will ever fly…

 

[Electroman]

Wasn’t SpaceX asked to demonstrate 3 cargo missions before they were certified to take humans? Why isn’t Boeing getting the same treatment?

 

[mongo]

Wasn’t SpaceX asked to demonstrate 3 cargo missions before they were certified to take humans? Why isn’t Boeing getting the same treatment?

Crew Dragon only had one non-human mission.

 

[Electroman]

But they demonstrated cargo flights a few times prior correct?

 

[scaesare]

But they demonstrated cargo flights a few times prior correct?

Isn't there "Cargo Dragon" and " Crew Dragon"?

My assumption is that they are different enough configurations that Cargo flavor flights wouldn't count towards qualifying for human rating.. hence there was only one flight of the actual version used for human spaceflight.

Although I assume that there's enough commonality that having the crew version flights under their belt didn't hurt...

 

[mongo]

Isn't there "Cargo Dragon" and " Crew Dragon"?

My assumption is that they are different enough configurations that Cargo flavor flights wouldn't count towards qualifying for human rating.. hence there was only one flight of the actual version used for human spaceflight.

Although I assume that there's enough commonality that having the crew version flights under their belt didn't hurt...

Right, there were two versions of cargo Dragon. The original was berthed, Cargo Dragon 2 is auto docking, but is sufficiently different from Crew Dragon that SpaceX dropped the idea of converting flown Crew to Cargo (this was when Crew were only approved for a single NASA flight).
Cargo 2 lacks all the human-centric stuff along with the Super Draco abort engines.
Crew parachute system is different also.

 

[ecarfan]

Eric Berger analyzes the ongoing Starliner debacle.

The brutal reality is this: It is not in Boeing's nature to take the risky path forward and self-invest to ensure a long-term future for Starliner. Moreover, the commercial market does not look robust, and competition with SpaceX will be stiff. SpaceX has now flown its Crew Dragon vehicle 10 times successfully at a price that is substantially lower than Starliner. Will many customers want to pay a premium for a far less proven ride to space?

At this point I don’t see any logical reason for Boeing to decide to put many hundreds of millions of dollars of its own money into the Starliner program to achieve the contracted 6 manned NASA flights given that they will have to transition away from the Atlas V to a new launch vehicle. Given that SpaceX has proven it can fly Crew Dragon on F9 at a far lower cost, Starliner has no path to economic viability.

I think in a few months Boeing will cancel the Starliner program. If they elect to continue it will be purely driven by the desire to avoid being seen as failing. Which would make no sense because the program is obviously such a mess that it effectively has already failed.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Eric Berger analyzes the ongoing Starliner debacle.

At this point I don’t see any logical reason for Boeing to decide to put many hundreds of millions of dollars of its own money into the Starliner program to achieve the contracted 6 manned NASA flights given that they will have to transition away from the Atlas V to a new launch vehicle. Given that SpaceX has proven it can fly Crew Dragon on F9 at a far lower cost, Starliner has no path to economic viability.

I think in a few months Boeing will cancel the Starliner program. If they elect to continue it will be purely driven by the desire to avoid being seen as failing. Which would make no sense because the program is obviously such a mess that it effectively has already failed.

That’s a brutal article by Berger. I agree with him 100% of course, but man, that article should have had an “extreme violence” warning on it

 

[JB47394]

I think in a few months Boeing will cancel the Starliner program. If they elect to continue it will be purely driven by the desire to avoid being seen as failing. Which would make no sense because the program is obviously such a mess that it effectively has already failed.

This isn't just a Boeing company matter. It's the entire military industrial complex, including a bunch of politicians who want the jobs and tax revenues that come from it. Fortunately, SpaceX is in Texas and Florida, and Senator Shelby from Alabama retired a couple years ago.

That’s a brutal article by Berger.

I thought it was pretty generous. He could have adopted a much more critical stance. He could have laughed.

 

[Grendal]

Boeing records more losses from Starliner delays

Boeing took another loss on its CST-100 Starliner commercial crew program as the first crewed flight of that vehicle remains in limbo.

spacenews.com

 

[Grendal]

Also, a reminder of where we were back in 2018. Most of the crew mentioned for Starliner has subsequently been moved onto Crew Dragon launches.

 

[scaesare]

Boeing records more losses from Starliner delays

Boeing took another loss on its CST-100 Starliner commercial crew program as the first crewed flight of that vehicle remains in limbo.

spacenews.com

Man, a quarter-billion dollar loss... after a while that starts to hurt.

 

[SO16]

Man, a quarter-billion dollar loss... after a while that starts to hurt.

1.1 B so far.

Boeing has now lost $1.1 billion on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

"We're not really ready to talk about a launch opportunity yet."

arstechnica.com