Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

Thanks for bringing that to my attention. It's very interesting and somewhat hard to put together with the nature article that I posted which shows that within the cohort of covid-19 patients, patients with 3 classic cytokines elevated had significantly more mortality. It just may mean that their elevations are not as bad as a lot of patients with classic sepsis a r d s, Etc.

Just getting back from a 4 day road trip so I'm a little toasted but I promise I will take a look at that and see if I can make any sense out of it. Right now my brain is too fried to do any serious analysis!!

Rest up.

It does seem contrary to what we have seen, in the study you linked, but we are also so early on in understanding the molecular mechanisms of this virus that I didn't want to dismiss it out of hand.

Sample size leaves something to be desired as well. Also, we have no measure of "how sick" the COVID-19 patients were compared to the other groups (all were SICK - on vent, or in septic shock and on vent, etc.)

I would like to see the study expounded upon with 2 control groups - healthy and mild COVID-19 not requiring ventilator support.

 

[madodel]

Superspreaders on two wheels.
Sturgis Rally: Study ties 260,000 COVID-19 cases to South Dakota event

 

[renim]

>madodel

Have they genetically linked it? Because in australia we have genetically linked 90% of wave 2 to a sole family quarantine hotel failure.

If its not genetically linked, then i call bull s$$t on it.

It shouldn't be that hard to do is it?

 

[Tiger]

Because the bradykinin pathways (and I'm not expert, just reading up on this stuff) overlap significantly with many of the pathways with cytokine storm to cause a large inflammatory response, yes it does fit well with that hypothesis.

Thanks. Is there something in that study, that would explain also the covid's supposedly different behavior on children?

 

[bkp_duke]

Thanks. Is there something in that study, that would explain also the covid's supposedly different behavior on children?

Cytokine and bradykine pathways in children are not always "mature" and don't react the same way as adults.

But to be honest, no there is nothing definitive that we can point to which would illustrate why children are less prone to infection and when they do get infected, on average have milder symptoms.

 

[renim]

Re; Genomic Sequencing - Victoria Australia

the first wave burnt out, it includes Cedar Meats clusters is transmission network 1, it burnt out.

the second wave consists of 2 sources,
Rydges hotel hotel is transmission network 2, its the one responsible for over 90% of wave 2
Samford hotel is transmission network 3, its also burnt out

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...-hotels-through-victoria-20200818-p55mse.html

 

[renim]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...two-outbreaks-34km-apart-20200818-p55mvm.html

or for NSW, (note case numbers much lower) and its not really to scale

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...two-outbreaks-34km-apart-20200818-p55mvm.html
View attachment 586403
or for NSW, (note case numbers much lower) and its not really to scale

Yeah, this type of analysis would be nearly impossible in the US. There were probably 100s of people showing up to Sturgis with COVID from all over the country. I haven't read that Sturgis paper and I'm also skeptical about the claims but I don't care enough to look at it since it doesn't change anything. Having large indoor events (with or without masks) is pretty much guaranteed to spread Coronavirus in the US because it's so prevalent here.
I would like some Thai food...
Restaurants are reopening for indoor dining for the second time here. Seems like a bad idea.

 

[renim]

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/d...hibit HQI0007a_P Genomic clustering graph.pdf
Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Tracking coronavirus in Victoria

the genomic testing is a lagging measure, but it only needs to performed on positive samples.
Revealing COVID-19 transmission in Australia by SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing and agent-based modeling | Nature Medicine july nsw

anyway, if there is one lesson to be learned form wave 2 in Australia, its that in the fight vs COVID19, agility (NSW test and trace) is better than brute force (Vic lockdown) even if both eventually lead to the same result, the cost (fatality and mental health and economic damage) is far greater in one than the other.

 

[eevee-fan]

Hope this isn't a repost.

COVID-19 outbreaks at college campuses: Fauci warns about sending students home

Like I said, this is how ant poisons work... let you take it home to the hive and boom! We, as a population, is so stupid. I guess that WAS the plan to balance Social Security and depopulate the USA?

 

[renim]

Yeah, this type of analysis would be nearly impossible in the US... Having large indoor events (with or without masks) is pretty much guaranteed to spread Coronavirus in.....

honestly, i think while there will be really useful response effectiveness analysis between different similar states going on ie NSW and Victoria. I think Australia was well served by each state being responsible for its own health response and not centrally controlled by central government in Canberra.

there is a lot of local nuance in how to manage COVID 19, part of the lessons for Victoria will be that language and culture can be real immediate barriers for trust and communications, and that empowerment of the police for more lockdown power actively discourages track and trace where and when it is most needed. Unfortunately that seemed to be a binary tradeoff.

 

[renim]

Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus testing data by local government area

so within melbourne fortnight data, there is Tests per confirmed case for local governement areas ranging from ~50 Tests per confirmed case through to ~800 Tests per confirmed case.

some are avoiding being tested because they dont trust the governement, others are hypercondriacs and getting tested for their own peace of mind, and others are in the middle.

its harmless to give tests for hyercondriacs, but its critical to provide tests for those who dont trust the governement.

 

[wdolson]

Yeah, this type of analysis would be nearly impossible in the US. There were probably 100s of people showing up to Sturgis with COVID from all over the country. I haven't read that Sturgis paper and I'm also skeptical about the claims but I don't care enough to look at it since it doesn't change anything. Having large indoor events (with or without masks) is pretty much guaranteed to spread Coronavirus in the US because it's so prevalent here.
I would like some Thai food...
Restaurants are reopening for indoor dining for the second time here. Seems like a bad idea.

As I understand it, the Sturgis report comes from the anonymous tracking of cell phones. The company that does that has been tracking COVID outbreaks from other mass events all year. They can track individual cell phones (without knowing who it is, just knowing it's a unique cell phone) geographically. They tracked a large percentage of cell phones from their homes to Sturgis and back.

By tracking such a large number they were able to identify places where people were coming from and other areas where nobody went to Sturgis. Then they watched new COVID cases and many of the places with cell phones that went to Sturgis and back had spikes in new cases while places that had no cell phones detected in Sturgis did not have significant increases in cases.

They also pointed out that the vast majority of the cell phones they tracked were not from South Dakota. Most were from other parts of the Midwest and prairie states.

 

[heltok]

Interesting collection of Vitamin D and Covid19 related papers:
GShotwell/vitamin_d_covid

Will up my own dose and I am already above the reference range! =)

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/202009/Exhibit HQI0007a_P Genomic clustering graph.pdf
Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Tracking coronavirus in Victoria

the genomic testing is a lagging measure, but it only needs to performed on positive samples.
Revealing COVID-19 transmission in Australia by SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing and agent-based modeling | Nature Medicine july nsw

anyway, if there is one lesson to be learned form wave 2 in Australia, its that in the fight vs COVID19, agility (NSW test and trace) is better than brute force (Vic lockdown) even if both eventually lead to the same result, the cost (fatality and mental health and economic damage) is far greater in one than the other.

The reason for the lockdown was that there was an unmanageable amount of community spread (cases with no known origin). Victoria was not deciding between lockdown and test and trace. They were doing test and trace, failed, and then instituted a lockdown (and of course continued to do test and trace!).

It seems like the real lesson is to not let COVID spread to people who don't cooperate with test and trace and breach quarantine. Problem solved.

 

[renim]

The reason for the lockdown was that there was an unmanageable amount of community spread (cases with no known origin). Victoria was not deciding between lockdown and test and trace. They were doing test and trace, failed, and then instituted a lockdown (and of course continued to do test and trace!).

It seems like the real lesson is to not let COVID spread to people who don't cooperate with test and trace and breach quarantine. Problem solved.

Victoria started lockdowns long ago Victoria locks down 36 Melbourne suburbs to try to control COVID-19 spike. An article dated 30 June

Both NSW and Vic were are a similar place, but NSW chose to chase the virus with a whack a mole strategy, while victoria chose a lock down defensive strategy.

Turns out that chase the virus worked much better than lockdown. Probably because once health directions became mandated, the population doesn't want to snitch. When health directions remain a plea, not a command, then talking to others is not a snitch, its communal protection.

Oh, and use locals for tracing, it really helps the the tracer personally knows how large and ambient the restaurant/pub/church is and has a feel for the transmissibility of a venue.

 

[cwerdna]

Genomförda tester för covid-19 — Folkhälsomyndigheten

12.4% seroprevalence in Stockholm for the latest week (probably not a truly random sample though). Nearly to herd immunity!

Dr. Scott Atlas is really onto something. Or is he on something? Hard to know. Shrug.

Stanford Medical Faculty Lambaste Former Colleague and Trump Coronavirus Advisor Dr. Scott Atlas

A group of 78 researchers and doctors from Stanford Medical School are calling out former colleague and White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Scott Atlas for spreading what they characterized as "falsehoods and misrepresentation of science."

Atlas, who has a background in radiology, was tapped last month as an advisor to President Donald Trump on the COVID-19 pandemic, which has already killed more than 191,000 people in the U.S. alone. Atlas joined the administration’s coronavirus taskforce in mid-August.

The radiologist and senior fellow at Stanford University’s conservative Hoover Institution has advocated against the use of masks and pushed the White House to adopt a controversial strategy, allowing young people to contract the coronavirus in hopes of achieving "herd immunity." Atlas, who doesn’t have any training or background in infectious diseases, has appeared on Fox News to push for reopening schools and questioned the efficacy of masks.

points to the letter at https://twitter.com/RoxanaDaneshjou/status/1303904515607855104?s=20.

 

[dfwatt]

For those high on Vitamin C as any kind of cure for sepsis in COVID19, here is a sobering result reported on Medpage

 

[Daniel in SD]

Victoria started lockdowns long ago Victoria locks down 36 Melbourne suburbs to try to control COVID-19 spike. An article dated 30 June

Both NSW and Vic were are a similar place, but NSW chose to chase the virus with a whack a mole strategy, while victoria chose a lock down defensive strategy.

Turns out that chase the virus worked much better than lockdown. Probably because once health directions became mandated, the population doesn't want to snitch. When health directions remain a plea, not a command, then talking to others is not a snitch, its communal protection.

Oh, and use locals for tracing, it really helps the the tracer personally knows how large and ambient the restaurant/pub/church is and has a feel for the transmissibility of a venue.

They implemented those local lockdowns after there were 64 cases a day. That's way more than NSW ever had. If you're doing test and trace and the number of cases is still growing exponentially what are your options? You seem to be saying that they just needed to do a better job at test and trace and that's obvious. But what do you do when test and trace isn't working? I've become a bit cynical and think that in some societies there may be nothing you can do.

All the testing in the world may not be enough in the US. The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign has been testing all their 40,000 students twice a week and still had to implement lockdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. They created a model that said that testing twice a week would be enough even with 7,000 students partying 3 times a week. What they failed to account for was that students would continue to party even after testing positive! I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
A University Had a Great Coronavirus Plan, but Students Partied On

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Restaurants are reopening for indoor dining for the second time here. Seems like a bad idea.

Yeah, NY September 30th reopening restaurants @ 25% with 50% a month later or something. With law enforcement support.

We’ll see. Apparently this may explain the difference between Madrid and NYC. Also Madrid has terrible contact tracing (nearly 10x fewer tracers). Plus Madrid has reopened bars apparently. Not helpful! https://twitter.com/_miguelhernan/status/1304424019450630144?s=21

However, I am not optimistic for NY. They most definitely do not have herd immunity!