Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

Yeah, NY September 30th reopening restaurants @ 25% with 50% a month later or something. With law enforcement support.

We’ll see. Apparently this may explain the difference between Madrid and NYC. Also Madrid has terrible contact tracing (nearly 10x fewer tracers). Plus Madrid has reopened bars apparently. Not helpful! https://twitter.com/_miguelhernan/status/1304424019450630144?s=21

However, I am not optimistic for NY. They most definitely do not have herd immunity!

We'll see. I'm going to stick with my not spending time indoors with strangers strategy.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

We'll see. I'm going to stick with my not spending time indoors with strangers strategy.

This is a solid strategy. I am not optimistic for San Diego either. I have no idea why we even have indoor dining again now. They should instead just really relax the rules/remove all obstacles to outside dining and let them seat people outside whereever, use up parking lot space, etc. They are already doing this to some extent but presumably there were some upset restaurants. Give them free space somewhere!

No drinking probably helps, but I think this strategy is unsustainable without a massive contact tracing apparatus.

 

[cusetownusa]

I live in NY state and we have had indoor dining for a couple of months now. The number of people both testing positive and in the hospital for Covid19 are at the lowest point since this all started in March. Schools have just opened this week and so hopefully the transmission rate can still stay at the current lows.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I live in NY state and we have had indoor dining for a couple of months now.

In my post I was referring to NY City. They still don’t have dine-in in some areas. End of the month...

It does not seem that dine-in alone must necessarily lead to uncontrolled spread. For example things have been ok in Oregon - allows dine in (not sure of capacity limits exactly) in Phase II with relatively few restrictions. Not sure of bar situation there. But Oregon requires contact tracing of 95% of contacts in a short period of time, etc.

I do still worry about the coming cool months. Will be interesting to check the mountain west in about a week or two, after their recent snow event. Should be an early test signal.

Obviously it is a combination of factors. Having people who are known positive going out to party certainly is not helpful though.

 

[JRP3]

I live in NY state and we have had indoor dining for a couple of months now. The number of people both testing positive and in the hospital for Covid19 are at the lowest point since this all started in March. Schools have just opened this week and so hopefully the transmission rate can still stay at the current lows.

Not going so well in Tompkins County since Cornell opened back up:

 

[madodel]

The US Surgeon General just said that

Not going so well in Tompkins County since Cornell opened back up:

View attachment 587256

Everyday we watch our NE Pennsylvania COVID statistics and this past week one county was well ahead of every other in our area. Centre County where Penn State has just started in person classes. Everyday it has been between 50-150 new cases. What rocket surgeon thought this was a good idea? Probably we will see spikes elsewhere in another week after elementary and secondary schools have started back last week many with hybrid schedules. But hey I hear young people don't get sick and if they do very few die. Granny just needs to hide in the attic for a few more months.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Not going so well in Tompkins County since Cornell opened back up:

Granny just needs to hide in the attic for a few more months.

I'm responding to these with "funny" - but it is definitely not actually funny. It's funny in a gallows humor sort of way, I suppose. It's just so predictable, with the certain results outlined clearly months ago, and it's just following that predictable course. But people want to return to normal. It's not going to happen, but people want it, so we're going ahead. It certainly POSSIBLE to return to nearly normal, but we're not in a position currently to return to that place.

Oh well. I gave up on the whole situation months ago.

Next up, NFL football! Looks like baseball has finally worked out how to do this? So maybe football can as well? I feel like football may be more difficult, for whatever reason, but we'll see. There's a considerable chance that an NFL athlete will die of coronavirus this fall. Maybe then people will take it seriously? (It wasn't enough for Von Miller to say it was frightening, though - so probably even a death of an athlete won't convince people that it's not some sort of hoax.)

 

[madodel]

8 months into this pandemic and there still is no US national stockpile of medical protection equipment and not enough production.
Scarcity of raw material still squeezes N95 mask makers

 

[jerry33]

8 months into this pandemic and there still is no US national stockpile of medical protection equipment and not enough production.
Scarcity of raw material still squeezes N95 mask makers

Did you expect anything else with the current "let's kill off everyone who doesn't make $1M per year" administration?

 

[JRP3]

CDC finds link between COVID-19 cases and eating at restaurants, but experts say indoor dining can be done safely

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released evidence this week suggesting that those who test positive for COVID-19 are more likely than those who test negative to have visited a restaurant or bar in the two weeks before — a finding that calls into question plans from New York City and Florida to reopen indoor dining.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19

Speaking of the CDC (sorry if this was already posted...) - this is really pretty awful. This Paul Alexander, an assistant professor from McMaster University, appears to be barely literate (check out the excerpt from his email - he would have done WAY better if he had just used speech to text!).

Does this mean the Canadians are also getting on board with the Russians in bringing down America?

Fauci: 'I have to disagree' with Trump saying U.S. is rounding the corner on coronavirus

On the upside, reading between the lines, it sounds like Fauci thinks it is likely to turn into a total sh**show in the next couple months (not a difficult prediction to make but having his imprimatur certainly is significant). The virus doesn’t care about our beliefs!

 

[Daniel in SD]

CDC finds link between COVID-19 cases and eating at restaurants, but experts say indoor dining can be done safely

“When you’re sitting at the table eating, you’re usually there with people you already are mixing with, so face-covering policies are for when you’re not seated at your table,” says Adalja. “If the server is wearing a mask and a face shield, then there’s probably less benefit to wearing your mask at the table. [COVID-19] is not spread through fleeting contact, it’s significant exposure, 10 to 15 minutes. Severs are usually not there that long and they’re typically a few feet away.”

By this logic no customer would ever get COVID-19 from a stranger at a restaurant. When are you spending more than 10 to 15 minutes away from your table? Let alone in close contact with another person not in your party?
Maybe they should advise playing musical chairs every 14 minutes to prevent spread between people in the party?
That's what they're doing in Iowa: Officials question Waukee High's suggestion for breaks every 12-14 minutes

I have always assumed that the length of exposure just changed the probability of infection. (i.e 15 minutes = 30% chance, 5 minutes = 10% chance, etc.) If an infectious person spends 5 minutes each with 30 people they're going to infect a few of them...

 

[TespaceX]

Every time I check out a social media feed, whether Facebook, NextDoor, etc., I get the feeling COVID is here to stay forever. Either it’s downplayed or ignored by many still.

I just read an article that the health official in Placer County, CA (area between Sacramento and Lake Tahoe) became the 49th health official to resign in CA since April. One county board member there apparently believes that the death numbers are wildly over inflated, stating people are “dying with COVID, not of COVID.” A comment to that by someone else was, “Those at-risk people were going to die anyways.”

 

[totoro722]

Every time I check out a social media feed, whether Facebook, NextDoor, etc., I get the feeling COVID is here to stay forever. Either it’s downplayed or ignored by many still.

Covid is here to stay. We are going to have to learn to live with it. Having a vaccine to provide widespread immunity or at least resistance will surely make that easier, but the chance of extinguishing it is nill now. I think the change in attitude toward it is part of the process of moving from panic to more tolerant awareness. Depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine, living with it could be like we live with influenza, or like we live with measles. Both are still around.

 

[bkp_duke]

Coronaviruses have been with us for 10s of thousands of years. They come, and they go.

But a vaccine WILL make this one . . . pretty much irrelevant.

 

[eevee-fan]

By this logic no customer would ever get COVID-19 from a stranger at a restaurant. When are you spending more than 10 to 15 minutes away from your table? Let alone in close contact with another person not in your party?
Maybe they should advise playing musical chairs every 14 minutes to prevent spread between people in the party?
That's what they're doing in Iowa: Officials question Waukee High's suggestion for breaks every 12-14 minutes

I have always assumed that the length of exposure just changed the probability of infection. (i.e 15 minutes = 30% chance, 5 minutes = 10% chance, etc.) If an infectious person spends 5 minutes each with 30 people they're going to infect a few of them...

I flagged FUNNY because this is so hilarious. My tricorder detects no signs of intelligent life.

 

[jerry33]

Covid is here to stay. We are going to have to learn to live with it. Having a vaccine to provide widespread immunity or at least resistance will surely make that easier, but the chance of extinguishing it is nill now. I think the change in attitude toward it is part of the process of moving from panic to more tolerant awareness. Depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine, living with it could be like we live with influenza, or like we live with measles. Both are still around.

Both are still around because there isn't the will to get rid of them. Measles was almost eliminated until the anti-vax movement, so was polio.

 

[bkp_duke]

Both are still around because there isn't the will to get rid of them. Measles was almost eliminated until the anti-vax movement, so was polio.

Yep. Never underestimate the collective stupidity of the human race. That collective stupidity seems to have been amplified with the advent of social media.

 

[dhanson865]

Glad I got my flu shot so I won't have to play the game:

• Is this the flu or is it Covid?

Now if I get sick this winter I'll know it isn't the flu.

 

[shinytop]

Don't be so confident. We have not seen the efficacy of this year's shot. I got the shot too and am hoping your confidence is well founded.