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Coronavirus

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My only issue is the keto types pretending our ancestors didn't eat plants. They're as bad as the vegans pretending our ancestors didn't eat meat. I was wrong on the timing and frequency of ketosis but I've never seen any evidence that we evolved to be in that state 24-7-365.
For sure that would be a contradiction in terms. Evolution just builds back up plans. Not enough sugar, not enough fats or carbohydrates, or anything for that matter, you can always burn fats and eventually your own protein.
 
Back of the envelop herd mentality calculations.
How about this new vaccine? It looks to be around 50% effective. Even if could be administered to 100% immediately (rather than taking well more than a year), that would effectively give us 165 million heard cases, we'd still have 61 million more cases needed. Suppose the new case rate get cut in half to 25k per day. We still have 6.7 years to go to get to heard mentality. Of course, many of the heard would burn their masks, if they had a vaccine. So the daily case rate could continue around 50k in spite of the vaccine. We are still talking about 3.2 years plus the number of years it take to vaccinate the whole population.

So the bovine strategy looks pretty inept. Mask wearing and social distancing should continue for many years whether we have a vaccine or not. The advantage of a 50% effective vaccine is that it can slow the infection rate. Backing off from social distancing measures would only erode this advantage. But what is the advantage worth? It can buy us more time to find a more effective vaccine. It means fewer people must ultimately die of Covid-19, and for those who ultimately will dies it can add years of Covid-free life (before they get infected). But the bovine strategy is to speed up the infection rate so that heard mentality will come sooner. Even so, the end to the pandemic won't come much sooner. The Trump presidency will end before Covid-19 is resolved through heard mentality, even if Donald got a third term.


Ok, this is back of the envelop. It am positive I have oversimplified things quite a bit. However, the point it to get a feel for the time scale. Heard mentality is not a quick fix. There are no quick fixes. Best strategy remains to make optimal use of all means to slow the pandemic. Expect to keep wearing masks for years, even after you get vaccinated.

I'm hoping for better than 50% effective vaccine but expect less than 100% acceptance rate, but these differences even out our estimations.

Where we differ is what happens in the next 6.7 years. Each year vaccinations would improve with better acceptance.

I'm never expecting a COVID free future, just like I don't expect an Influenza free future. But I am hoping to burn some of my masks at intervals in the future, but will keep a few in storage for expected outbreaks...
 
My only issue is the keto types pretending our ancestors didn't eat plants. They're as bad as the vegans pretending our ancestors didn't eat meat. I was wrong on the timing and frequency of ketosis but I've never seen any evidence that we evolved to be in that state 24-7-365.

glad to see you admit you were wrong...that's a first...gives me hope to keep posting on here, ha!
 
Now we're up to 7
Coronavirus death toll from Maine wedding rises to 7, with over 175 infected
"None of the seven people who have died attended the wedding or the reception.
Residents are angry after Maine wedding linked to 7 virus deaths: "We can't go nowhere"

Idaho pastor, Paul Van Noy, skeptical of masks lands in the ICU for Covid-19 - CNN

Las Vegas Sands, Wynn employees test positive for COVID-19
Las Vegas Sands has revealed almost 400 employees have tested positive for COVID-19 since the Venetian and Palazzo resorts reopened in June.

To date, the company has conducted 42,637 COVID-19 tests at the Venetian and Palazzo properties. A total of 424 team members have tested positive – but 399 of those cases were logged after the resorts opened in June.

Not all of the positive test results were discovered during on-property testing, according to Sands spokesman Ron Reese. Some were identified at off-property testing locations.
...
Wynn reports 548 employee cases
Nearby Wynn Las Vegas logged almost 500 positive COVID-19 cases and three deaths among employees since the resort reopened in June.

With the help of University Medical Center, Wynn Las Vegas conducted 15,051 tests, aiming to catch any employees who are positive for the virus but asymptomatic.

Of those 15,051 tests, there have been 548 positive cases – a positivity rate of 3.6%. Of the total, 51 positive cases were recorded pre-reopening and 497 were post-reopening, according to the company.
 
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Saw this article this morning in Vox about a theory that inflammation in some Covid patients might be caused not by cytokine but Bradykinn storms. A search on here didn’t bring anything up for Bradykinn so thought it might be something new to discussions here.

This theory might explain "Covid toes" and other mysteries of the disease

Covered here a few weeks back. Scroll through the thread.

The data do lean that way, but are not conclusive yet (i.e. more studies needed).
 
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Reactions: SMAlset
Hmm didn’t come up in search but just realized I misspelled the term. Should be Bradykinin. That could be why. :rolleyes:

As horrible of a disease as this is to humans, it would nice to have something positive come from it. With covid having received so much international coverage, hopefully the hunt to understand and formulate treatments and a vaccine against it will inspire more young students to enter the field.
 
My dentist had many protocols in place; they wore two masks and a face shield, fresh gloves and gown, fully wiped down the chair with disinfectant, of course clean and sterilized tools, I had to answer a questionnaire, sanitize my hands, wear a mask except during the cleaning, had to rinse with a special mouthwash before they started cleaning that was supposed to be good at killing the virus, had a special attachment on the sucker thing that was to increase the ability to suck particles (less airborne spray), no ‘power tools’ — so no water laser cleaner thingy, all done the old fashion by hand cleaning method, no xrays, no polishing.

Seriously, less than zero chance of catching anything in that office. I felt very safe.

If I don't get an x-ray and they don't polish my teeth what is the point of a 6 month cleaning? I can brush my own teeth at home.

I'll just wait and do my next visit in 2021.
 
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CDC updates Covid-19 testing guidelines for aysmptomatic people - CNN

"(CNN)The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's website has updated, yet again, guidelines for testing people who do not have symptoms of coronavirus.
The new language rolls back controversial changes made to the site last month. It once again stresses that anyone who has been in contact with an infected person should be tested for coronavirus.
"Due to the significance of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, this guidance further reinforces the need to test asymptomatic persons, including close contacts of a person with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection," it says, calling the change a clarification."
 
You’re not fooling me... I saw little shop of horrors.

ED2EDE09-ED4F-4C38-B9D1-3BE2DDA92041.jpeg
Or try to eat you.
 
We've hit 200k (official) deaths today.

Also, a thread about flying & the risks. I guess I'd have to consider whether I would want to use my full respirator or whether I would go with a KN95 or proper medical grade N95 (if available) if I flew. The respirator is kind of inconvenient. But overall flying when people are masked seems safer than one might think. Though not actually particularly safe. At least there is pre-screening, etc.

Thread by @AbraarKaran on Thread Reader App