Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

This is not good

Oct 28th State Test Positivity Rates per Johns Hopkins
Track Testing Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

South Dakota - 43%
Idaho - 35%
Wyoming - 32%
Wisconsin - 28%
Iowa - 26%
Alabama - 25%
Nebraska - 22%
Kansas - 21%
Nevada - 19%
Utah - 18%

Seriously though, there are differences between state positivities based on how they report test results. Some states do positivity per unique encounter, others do positivity per specimen, some do positivity per person. There's a big discussion/blog post about it over at The Covid Tracking Project.

South Dakota's numbers probably are skewed high. Not saying there is not a problem (there is, it's disaster!). I'm just saying it's hard to compare states to one another since there is no standard for how results are reported.

Anything over a few % is bad, as far as I am concerned. Ideally want to be well below 1%.

 

[JRP3]

From general thread.

I’m in the healthcare field and have treated multiple infected patients without being infected because were taking the known steps for preventing transmission. It’s probably time to trust scientists instead of politicians.

Indeed. It's not the flue.
CDC estimates more than 9,200 health care workers have been infected with covid-19 - CNN
""I think we've all learned this virus was a greater threat than we had thought."
She added that the virus spreads more quickly than was expected, especially since doctors did not at first realize the extent to which people could be infected without showing symptoms."

COVID-19: 90,000 healthcare workers infected, says nursing group
"At least 90,000 healthcare workers have been infected by COVID-19 and more than 260 nurses have lost their lives to the pandemic, the International Council of Nurses (ICN) said on Wednesday, warning that numbers could be much higher."

 

[madodel]

Covid-19: Germany and France announce new lockdowns as coronavirus cases spike in Europe

Chancellor Angela Merkel says German officials have agreed to a four-week shutdown of restaurants, bars, cinemas, theaters and other leisure facilities in a bid to curb a sharp rise in coronavirus infections.

Merkel and the country's 16 state governors, who are responsible for imposing and easing restrictions, agreed on the partial lockdown in a videoconference Wednesday. It is set to take effect Monday and last until the end of November.​

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Jesus Wisconsin, I know you people like bars, but 5500 cases in one day? That's .1% of the state population being diagnosed on Tuesday. Lol?

Am I reading these stats wrong?

 

[nwdiver]

Jesus Wisconsin, I know you people like bars, but 5500 cases in one day? That's .1% of the state population being diagnosed on Tuesday. Lol?

Am I reading these stats wrong?

yeah .... 'Weird' ....

 

[cwerdna]

White House Lists 'Ending' Covid-19 Pandemic As Trump Accomplishment - seems extremely delusional but I guess not that surprising to hear this type of garbage from them...

Interesting... Jared Kushner talking to Bob Woodward back in April about getting the country "back from the doctors" and a "negotiated settlement". There's also talk about "overconfident idiots" in the WH...

 

[Norbert]

7-day average of US new cases, compared to Sept 27th:

Oct 11th: + 20%
Oct 15th: + 30%
Oct 20th: + 46%
Oct 24th: + 62%
Oct 26th: + 70%
Oct 28th: + 81% (today)

Two days later, already 11% more, and still going like a rocket.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Guidelines from Lithuania - cover your nose unless you wear your bra or knickers like that as well:

 

[NikolaACDC]

Aspirin use reduces risk of death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Aspirin use reduces risk of death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients

"Hospitalized COVID-19 patients who were taking a daily low-dose aspirin to protect against cardiovascular disease had a significantly lower risk of complications and death compared to those who were not taking aspirin, according to a new study led by researchers at the University of Maryland School of Medicine (UMSOM). Aspirin takers were less likely to be placed in the intensive care unit (ICU) or hooked up to a mechanical ventilator, and they were more likely to survive the infection compared to hospitalized patients who were not taking aspirin, The study, published today in the journal Anesthesia and Analgesia, provides "cautious optimism," the researchers say, for an inexpensive, accessible medication with a well-known safety profile that could help prevent severe complications."
...
"We believe that the blood thinning effects of aspirin provides benefits for COVID-19 patients by preventing microclot formation,"
...
"This is a critical finding that needs to be confirmed through a randomized clinical trial,"

 

[NikolaACDC]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/29/coronaviurs-taiwan-200-days-local-transmission/

"Taiwan, meanwhile, reached a milestone: 200 days without recording a single locally transmitted coronavirus infection.
The island of more than 23 million people has officially confirmed just 550 cases and seven covid-19 fatalities.
...
“Taiwan quickly mobilized and instituted specific approaches for case identification, containment, and resource allocation to protect the public health,” the Journal of the American Medical Association article concluded.

The island has also relied heavily on technology and public trust, tracking people once they cross the border to ensure they comply with the 14-day quarantine requirement, and creating an app that allowed residents to check which pharmacies had masks in stock. An article published this month in the Lancet notes that the island “had an established culture of face mask use” that meant many people began wearing masks in public before they were officially required to do so — and that the government was quick to ramp up production and form a plan to distribute masks to all residents.

Many experts have praised Taiwanese officials for acknowledging the dangers posed by the virus from the start — which may have been a crucial factor in stopping its spread.
---------------------
An example for other countries how things could have been handled better.
Yes, they have the benefit of being more authoritarian, being an island and people being more accustomed to wearing masks. But they also hadn't forgotten the lessons from SARS.

Links to the two studies mentioned in the article
3/2020: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689
10/2020: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(20)30044-4/fulltext

 

[NikolaACDC]

New analysis finds association between masking requirements and slower growth in COVID-19 hospitalizations

"In a new analysis, researchers from the Department of Health Policy at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine and Vanderbilt University Medical Center have found a relationship between the growth of hospitalizations and masking requirements put in place across the state.
Hospitals that have more than 75% of their patients from areas without masking requirements in place have seen a relatively faster increase in patients with COVID-19 than hospitals with higher percentages of patients from areas with masking requirements in place.
Importantly, the analysis notes that it is difficult to say with certainty that masks are the sole cause for this trend because there are often other mitigation measures in place as well, like restrictions on large gatherings and some businesses and industries.
...
“Again, we can’t say for sure that masking is the reason this is happening because there are often other interventions in places like Nashville and Memphis where bars and restaurants are limited, but we do see a clear relationship between areas where masks are required and hospitalizations for the coronavirus,” Graves said."
--------------
Now they tell us...

 

[Daniel in SD]

Jesus Wisconsin, I know you people like bars, but 5500 cases in one day? That's .1% of the state population being diagnosed on Tuesday. Lol?

Am I reading these stats wrong?

No you're not. Well it's probably a little bit less than that on Tuesday since a days report is probably for the last few days. It all averages out though.
Yet, Pfizer somehow managed to select their vaccine trial participants such that they do not have even 32 cases in the 36,000 people in the trial (both people who received the vaccine and who got the placebo). So they don't have enough data to evaluate efficacy yet. Everyone sucks at what they do.
They must have recruited the doomers in this thread.
Pfizer C.E.O. All but Rules Out Vaccine Before Election Day

 

[heltok]

New strain has taken over Europe:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
A new coronavirus variant is seen spreading across Europe, research says

KEY POINTS

• A new variant of the coronavirus, identified as 20A.EU1 by researchers from Switzerland and Spain, was first observed in Spain in June.
• It has been recorded in Spain at frequencies of above 40% since July, the study said.
• Elsewhere, the new variant of the coronavirus has increased from “very low” values prior to July 15 to 40% to 70% in Switzerland, Ireland, and the U.K. in September.
• It was also found to be prevalent in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands, and France.

Could this explain the second wave? Will this strain take over America and Asia eventually also?

 

[NikolaACDC]

New strain has taken over Europe:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
A new coronavirus variant is seen spreading across Europe, research says
...

Could this explain the second wave? Will this strain take over America and Asia eventually also?

In the paper they mention under Caveats:
• This variant rose in frequency in multiple countries, but we have no direct evidence that it spreads faster. The rise in frequency could also be due to epidemiological factors.
• There are currently no data to evaluate whether this variant affects the severity of the disease.

So no proof of increased infectivity.

 

[heltok]

In the paper they mention under Caveats:
• This variant rose in frequency in multiple countries, but we have no direct evidence that it spreads faster. The rise in frequency could also be due to epidemiological factors.
• There are currently no data to evaluate whether this variant affects the severity of the disease.

So no proof of increased infectivity.

Given that it has become dominant in multiple large regions from very low levels to now very high levels, the likelihood that it had a higher R_t(at least during the period) than its cousins seems close to 1. Is this not so by definition?

And if it had a higher R_t during that period my intuition tells me it also has a higher R_t now. Would love to hear any plausible scenario where this is not the case.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Given that it has become dominant in multiple large regions from very low levels to now very high levels, the likelihood that it had a higher R_t(at least during the period) than its cousins seems close to 1. Is this not so by definition?

And if it had a higher R_t during that period my intuition tells me it also has a higher R_t now. Would love to hear any plausible scenario where this is not the case.

This is my thinking as well. None of us are experts though.
The only plausible explanation I can think of is that all strains were suppressed to a low level and this one just got a few lucky super spreader events. Spain was down to about 300 cases a day over the summer. The new strain could have randomly seeded a tourist destination with many large events and then gone back to other countries when the tourists returned.

 

[heltok]

This is my thinking as well. None of us are experts though.
The only plausible explanation I can think of is that all strains were suppressed to a low level and this one just got a few lucky super spreader events. Spain was down to about 300 cases a day over the summer. The new strain could have randomly seeded a tourist destination with many large events and then gone back to other countries when the tourists returned.

Seems very unlikely that some superpreader event in Spain in june gave the virus to tourist equalling 40% of the number of infected in total in Europe at the same time. Europe was a low levels, but Sweden were at around 1000 case per day in June when Spain were a like 300 hundred cases a day.

One event might spread the virus to lets say 5000 people like the South Korean Church. Let’s say the virus go lucky and happened to be the superspreeder at 10 of these events for the new strain. Even that would not explain the growth of the strain...

However if the old strain had R=1 and the new had R=2 and we have 7 days of transmission for the virus, then since June we have had 16 weeks and 2^16=65536
Lets assume that in June there were 10 cases of the new strain. Then that would explain where we are now.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Seems very unlikely that some superpreader event in Spain in june gave the virus to tourist equalling 40% of the number of infected in total in Europe at the same time. Europe was a low levels, but Sweden were at around 1000 case per day in June when Spain were a like 300 hundred cases a day.

One event might spread the virus to lets say 5000 people like the South Korean Church. Let’s say the virus go lucky and happened to be the superspreeder at 10 of these events for the new strain. Even that would not explain the growth of the strain...

However if the old strain had R=1 and the new had R=2 and we have 7 days of transmission for the virus, then since June we have had 16 weeks and 2^16=65536
Lets assume that in June there were 10 cases of the new strain. Then that would explain where we are now.

I think we'll know soon enough. The current rate of spread in Europe is insane.
The serial interval for COVID-19 is estimated to be about 5 days (Estimates of serial interval for COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis)
Not sure what to make of this data. This is plotted on a logarithmic scale. Maybe the change in slope for Europe is due to a change in behavior due to weather? Why are the numbers flat in Spain for September?

 

[Yuri_G]

I think we'll know soon enough. The current rate of spread in Europe is insane.
The serial interval for COVID-19 is estimated to be about 5 days (Estimates of serial interval for COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis)
Not sure what to make of this data. This is plotted on a logarithmic scale. Maybe the change in slope for Europe is due to a change in behavior due to weather? Why are the numbers flat in Spain for September?
View attachment 603572

I'd guess the biggest contributor to the recent increases is pandemic fatigue.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I'd guess the biggest contributor to the recent increases is pandemic fatigue.

Yes, that is a huge contributor but I think weather moving people indoors is also contributing.
I'm still trying to figure out who they gave these vaccine candidates too... They really couldn't give them to young people in Florida over the summer? Crazy that they don't have enough data yet to evaluate efficacy. You'd think if there was a plan to distribute people could be careful for a little while longer. I guess everyone has given up.