Coronavirus

[phantasms]

I'm sorry to go full n00b here. I haven't been around in months and I have no ability to read through all these pages where many posts are deep in the weeds [which is excellent].

My current thoughts on COVID is the media, much of the government, and certainly wall street, seem to think we're closing in on easy street. I'm of the thought that one, or more, of the new strains are putting down roots and will launch our numbers even higher in the coming weeks much like we saw in UK, Ireland, etc. Is this generally the position amongst the expert hive mind here or an I off base?

Much appreciated.

Be well and be safe.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

. Is this generally the position amongst the expert hive mind here or an I off base?

Personally, I think case counts will take off in about a month in the US, but I’m far from certain (this is just what I would say if I had to guess), because vaccination will help regardless of mutation. And mortality and hospitalization should be reduced in any case, so it may be less of an issue (though it will still be very bad since the deaths will be more heavily weighted towards young people). It’s a bit of a horse race. Depends on timing. And what happens will definitely not be uniform across the US. Some places will get lucky. A few pages ago it was speculated that the partial immune escape variants will more likely dominate in hard-hit places - the Dakotas, for example. But now we have B.1.1.7 (very contagious) with B.1.351 changes (partial immune escape) so if that takes hold in the US it may not matter where it takes root. There will still be a lot of variability from state to state though.

I'm waiting to see what the deal is with P.1 from Brazil. That seems like the biggest unknown right now (though there are probably tons of undetected variants right now...hopefully all pretty similar).

 

[TEG]

I'm sorry to go full n00b here. I haven't been around in months and I have no ability to read through all these pages where many posts are deep in the weeds [which is excellent].
My current thoughts on COVID is the media, much of the government, and certainly wall street, seem to think we're closing in on easy street. I'm of the thought that one, or more, of the new strains are putting down roots and will launch our numbers even higher in the coming weeks much like we saw in UK, Ireland, etc. Is this generally the position amongst the expert hive mind here or an I off base?
Much appreciated.
Be well and be safe.

Armchair QB cliff notes summary: "We really don't know what to expect next..."

You can get various outcomes speculated based on an assortment of crystal balls.

 

[TEG]

CVS Pharmacy to Launch COVID-19 Vaccinations at 100 California Stores

 

[bkp_duke]

I'm sorry to go full n00b here. I haven't been around in months and I have no ability to read through all these pages where many posts are deep in the weeds [which is excellent].

My current thoughts on COVID is the media, much of the government, and certainly wall street, seem to think we're closing in on easy street. I'm of the thought that one, or more, of the new strains are putting down roots and will launch our numbers even higher in the coming weeks much like we saw in UK, Ireland, etc. Is this generally the position amongst the expert hive mind here or an I off base?

Much appreciated.

Be well and be safe.

If someone held a gun to my head (he he, some here have thought about that - admit it!) and told me to make a "professional prediction", it would be this:

We will see a slow wind-down of infections over the course of the next 6 months (but NOT to zero), due to 3 factors:
1) Infected individuals have immunity (to what degree is a constant debate, but there is immunity)
2) Increasing numbers of individuals being vaccinated
3) Warmer weather (YES, both heat and UV radiation do shorten the lifespan of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces and in the air)

Unless vaccination efforts are more successful than I expect (i.e. there are enough anti-vaxxers and vaccine cautious people out there), then we will continue to see a "smoldering" effect. It won't be pandemic-level infections like what we see now, but the virus will continue to be present, infecting those at risk and those who have not been vaccinated, and we will slowly see new variants of the virus pop up.

There, my 2 cent professional "prediction", subject to change with additional data.

 

[EVNow]

Of course, you cannot have mutation without infection. More infections, more mutations (have said this several times previously).

In general true - but - another thing to keep in mind - there are times when (under a lot of environmental stress) we can have rapid mutations. This has been the case in the evolutionary past - and I won't be surprised to see some of that play out as more people get vaccinated.

 

[JRP3]

My concern is colleges going back to in person learning for this semester. Locally Ithaca College did remote learning for the fall while Cornell was in person. Now IC is going in person while infections are much higher than the fall. I assume similar things are happening across the country. Seems as if infections will have to increase as a result.

 

[bkp_duke]

My concern is colleges going back to in person learning for this semester. Locally Ithaca College did remote learning for the fall while Cornell was in person. Now IC is going in person while infections are much higher than the fall. I assume similar things are happening across the country. Seems as if infections will have to increase as a result.

If I were a private college, I would have a vaccine requirement. Proof of vaccination by fall entry, or you don't get to set foot on campus. They already a myriad of these for things like meningitis, etc. Precedent has been set.

 

[madodel]

Armchair QB cliff notes summary: "We really don't know what to expect next..."

You can get various outcomes speculated based on an assortment of crystal balls.

Yep. I think after watching this for a year the one thing we can be sure of is it will surprise us. I hope I'm wrong and I hope the vaccine suffocates it but I think my hopes will be dashed.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I hope I'm wrong and I hope the vaccine suffocates it but I think my hopes will be dashed.

Can't really blame you. Things have been so bad and always just as bad or worse than expected. But maybe we're due for a break.

Continued stream of excellent news; this time the AstraZeneca vaccine: NO hospitalizations in the vaccinated group (vs. 15 in the placebo). And decent efficacy if you wait longer between doses. These vaccines continue to be remarkably effective. Obviously many of the trials didn't have a lot of exposure to the variants, so this will come down somewhat. (What solves a reduction in efficacy? More vaccinations!)

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1356690406776451073?s=20

We'll await the word on that P.1 variant to knock us down a few pegs.

 

[ZeApelido]

My concern is colleges going back to in person learning for this semester. Locally Ithaca College did remote learning for the fall while Cornell was in person. Now IC is going in person while infections are much higher than the fall. I assume similar things are happening across the country. Seems as if infections will have to increase as a result.

Oh no, are you a Townie???

 

[JRP3]

Oh no, are you a Townie???

Yup, as well as a faculty brat and graduate

 

[MXLRplus]

Interesting tidbit: I had an employee stay home because his wife had C19, and the Fed gave us a Federal Income Tax Credit for his wages. Our payroll company handled it for us automatically.

 

[TEG]

So, for those of you following my personal saga, there is a slight addendum now.

You may recall that my wife got symptoms on Jan 14th, got a positive test on Jan 15th and spent almost a week in the hospital Jan 20-25...

What I didn't mention before is that my daughter (who had pre-isolated) had come for a brief visit on Jan 12th and was supposed to be back at school but got stuck quarantining with us.
She ended up developing symptoms and testing positive on Jan 25th right after my wife got back home... Thankfully she had mild symptoms and feels fine and is almost done with quarantine now.

So, I had a negative PCR test on Jan 19th when my wife thought I must have brought it home asymptomatically...
So my wife and her doctor are like "you must have brought it home asymptomatically" and already stopped being positive by the 19th...
You may also recall that my doctor's office basically wouldn't order any antibody testing for me since they said it wouldn't really change anything on treatments, isolation, etc.
So... my wife's doctor instead ordered me antibody tests to clear up that question to know if I already had it.
I just got the results back. Surprisingly (to me) they are negative too. I have been living in a small 1 bathroom house for many weeks with 2 positive COVID cases right next to me and I still don't seem to have caught it?!

Study Result
Narrative
The FDA has reviewed and granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for this test. A Negative result does not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection. Follow-up testing with a molecular diagnostic test should be considered to rule out infection. This antibody test result should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection or to inform infection status. A Positive result may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E.
COMPONENT - YOUR VALUE - STANDARD RANGE
SARS-COV-2 IGG RESULT - Negative - Negative
SARS-COV-2, IGG INTERPRETATION
This sample is negative for IgG antibodies to novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In patients with PCR positive COVID-19, IgG responses typically develop 1-4 weeks after onset of symptoms. This result does not exclude COVID-19 infection. To evaluate patients with suspected infection, nasopharyngeal swab and RT-PCR for viral RNA is required.

I guess there is still a chance I could come down with it in coming weeks? Don't know how I made it this far...

 

[HG Wells]

So, for those of you following my personal saga, there is a slight addendum now.

You may recall that my wife got symptoms on Jan 14th, got a positive test on Jan 15th and spent almost a week in the hospital Jan 20-25...

What I didn't mention before is that my daughter (who had pre-isolated) had come for a brief visit on Jan 12th and was supposed to be back at school but got stuck quarantining with us.
She ended up developing symptoms and testing positive on Jan 25th right after my wife got back home... Thankfully she had mild symptoms and feels fine and is almost done with quarantine now.

So, I had a negative PCR test on Jan 19th when my wife thought I must have brought it home asymptomatically...
So my wife and her doctor are like "you must have brought it home asymptomatically" and already stopped being positive by the 19th...
You may also recall that my doctor's office basically wouldn't order any antibody testing for me since they said it wouldn't really change anything on treatments, isolation, etc.
So... my wife's doctor instead ordered me antibody tests to clear up that question to know if I already had it.
I just got the results back. Surprisingly (to me) they are negative too. I have been living in a small 1 bathroom house for many weeks with 2 positive COVID cases right next to me and I still don't seem to have caught it?!


I guess there is still a chance I could come down with it in coming weeks? Don't know how I made it this far...

Gee you sure are lucky.
Any lotto numbers you would recommend ?

 

[EVCollies]

CVS Pharmacy to Launch COVID-19 Vaccinations at 100 California Stores

This week I've had two patients receive the vax at their local grocery store pharmacy (different chains)!

 

[TEG]

I am not much of a Fox watcher, but this seemed interesting:
Steve Hilton investigates origins of COVID-19, links to US commissioned research
Factual or BS ?

 

[EVNow]

Gee you sure are lucky.
Any lotto numbers you would recommend ?

TSLA.

 

[EVNow]

Surprisingly (to me) they are negative too. I have been living in a small 1 bathroom house for many weeks with 2 positive COVID cases right next to me and I still don't seem to have caught it?!

My friend’s uncle lived in a small house with his family. One son got Covid - and passed it to the uncle. He was 80+ but in good health. Finally he passed away after a couple of weeks - all at home. The aunt and others at home never caught Covid.

From what I remember only about 50% of family members seem to catch Covid.

 

[TEG]

TSLA.

Good for you. Sadly I missed out on that juggernaut. Huge fan, but I never got into investing...