Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'd say in some places we are nearing diminishing returns.

It certainly will be harder to convince remaining people, but as far as diminishing returns goes, it doesn’t work that way. Going from 60% to 70% immune (for example) is far more important than going from 20% to 30%.

You go from 40% vulnerable to 30% vulnerable, which is a 25% decrease, requiring the virus to work that much harder. (As compared to 80% vs 70% which is just a 12.5% decrease.)

The numbers get even more appealing the higher you get - going from 80% to 90% makes the virus have to spread twice as efficiently to be able to continue to survive.

This is all assuming homogeneity, etc., etc.

So: the people getting vaccinated later actually provide higher ROI (assuming the virus is still out there and spreading), as I understand it.

 

[JRP3]

It certainly will be harder to convince remaining people, but as far as diminishing returns goes, it doesn’t work that way.

I meant diminishing returns in the likelihood of seeing higher levels of vaccination. Approaching 80% is going to be tough, I doubt we'll see much higher than that in most places.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I meant diminishing returns in the likelihood of seeing higher levels of vaccination. Approaching 80% is going to be tough, I doubt we'll see much higher than that in most places.

Sure, I understand - will become increasingly difficult. But the return gets better and better assuming you can get people. And we don’t need to get to 80% vaccinated.

As an example, Israel/UK have just 10-15% more immunity and it corresponds to 5x to 15x less disease (see Eric Topol). There are other variables of course, but it is pretty likely we are just 40-45 million first doses away from seeing a very sharp (and irreversible if the vaccines remain effective) collapse of infections in the US. Just another month of vaccination if we can convince people to keep coming...

Long term, it will be good to officially approve the vaccines (no EUA) and make it required for some activities, similar to other vaccines. That will be good incentive for some who have not bothered to get vaccinated yet. Obviously not talking about mandating it here - just required for certain things, with exceptions, just like other vaccines. But we don’t need this quite yet.

 

[eevee-fan]

Sure, I understand - will become increasingly difficult. But the return gets better and better assuming you can get people. And we don’t need to get to 80% vaccinated.

As an example, Israel/UK have just 10-15% more immunity and it corresponds to 5x to 15x less disease (see Eric Topol). There are other variables of course, but it is pretty likely we are just 40-45 million first doses away from seeing a very sharp (and irreversible if the vaccines remain effective) collapse of infections in the US. Just another month of vaccination if we can convince people to keep coming...

Long term, it will be good to officially approve the vaccines (no EUA) and make it required for some activities, similar to other vaccines. That will be good incentive for some who have not bothered to get vaccinated yet. Obviously not talking about mandating it here - just required for certain things, with exceptions, just like other vaccines. But we don’t need this quite yet.

Those who were careful are probably getting the vaccine now, those who did not care may already have had it. So the total 'immunized' is higher than the official stats.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Those who were careful are probably getting the vaccine now, those who did not care may already have had it. So the total 'immunized' is higher than the official stats.

Yep. That’s probably why we’re seeing such good results in UK and Israel at a bit over 50% vaccinated.

I’m very confused about all the (implicit) claims bouncing around that the new variants have an R0 of 5 or 10. I guess we will see. It seems like it would be difficult to determine what the R0 is. I have not read the methodology on the papers claiming “50% higher” B.1.1.7 transmissibility. I feel like they might be taking 3 or 3.5 and multiplying by 1.5 which seems like it would be wrong... I would be surprised by over 4.2.

 

[EVNow]

I was referring to the US, where we need to reach a form of herd immunity or at least get very close, in the next couple months. Boosters won’t be needed there in that timeframe otherwise we are in trouble.

A variant that comes up in any part of the world - will spread to the whole world in months.

BTW, now the fed govt wants to hit 70% by Jul 4th. They think that number is what is needed to greatly reduce Covid.

MSN

www.msn.com

Health officials are confident that communities that can achieve a 70 percent vaccination rate will see sharp declines in individual cases, hospitalizations and deaths, a senior administration official said on a call with reporters Tuesday. Administration officials also expect the Food and Drug Administration to soon issue an emergency use authorization enabling adolescents 12 to 15 years old to receive the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, opening up vaccinations to millions more people.

ps : We are now at 45% for single dose. 70% by the 4th looks difficult. Next 25% will be a lot more difficult than first 45%. The government had to do little by way to persuasion to get these 45% vaccinated. It was a simple operations game. Now its a totally different game.

 

[cusetownusa]

BTW, now the fed govt wants to hit 70% by Jul 4th. They think that number is what is needed to greatly reduce Covid.

MSN

www.msn.com

For clarification, believe the goal is 70% adults only. My County is close to that percentage for at least one shot...so we should hit 70% fully vaccinated adults within a month or so.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

A variant that comes up in any part of the world - will spread to the whole world in months.

Right, which is why I'm saying that we need to hit an approximate version of herd immunity without any boosters or similar - otherwise big trouble. Probably will take about 55%-60% of the entire US population vaccinated to hit that, is my guess.

70% by Jul 4th

As others said, adults, first shot only. So this is a good goal, and should be quite doable; currently at ~57%. Getting to 70% of adults is about 55% of the population, which as outlined above should be basically good for herd immunity for even the most aggressive variants, since that means about 80% of everyone covered by some form of immunity (R0 must be greater than 5 for exponential growth). And then the various variants will putter around in populations more reliant on natural immunity, I would guess.

Obviously this all assumes 100% effective vaccines which isn't right, but just as an approximation it's probably not too bad. There are some perfectly reasonable estimates (from the CDC) that 40% of the population may have been infected (I would guess more like 35%, but 40% is possible), so that helps a lot - even though it makes people slightly vulnerable to some variants with immune escape!

 

[EVNow]

For clarification, believe the goal is 70% adults only. My County is close to that percentage for at least one shot...so we should hit 70% fully vaccinated adults within a month or so.

I'm skeptical 70% of adults would be enough - but atleast it is a lot more achievable than 70% of population.

Probably will take about 55%-60% of the entire US population vaccinated to hit that, is my guess.

60% is probably enough to kill Covid with virus hygiene in place. The problem is - as we have seen time & again - when the cases come down, so do the masks.

This is exactly what happened in India. People became so callous that even most of the doctors skipped vaccines.

By fall if Covid doesn't mostly disappear - we'll have a children led resurgence as most schools will go back to in-person schooling.

 

[madodel]

Pennsylvania has been good at keeping COVID19 down but now they say they are going to remove all restrictions except masks by end of April. We are currently at a little over 50% with at least 1 dose. I will continue to only go where I need to and doing Zoom meetings.

PA to lift business restrictions, mitigation efforts ahead of Memorial Day as vaccinations increase

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

60% is probably enough to kill Covid with virus hygiene in place. The problem is - as we have seen time & again - when the cases come down, so do the masks.

How infectious, exactly, do you think B.1.1.7 and other more contagious variants are, with no protections in place?

Do the math. 60% vaccinated. 95% effective. That takes you to 57% protected.

40% infected (seems slightly high to me, but CDC doesn't think so). Assume 30% overlap with vaccination. 28%. Assume 60% protective. 17%.

17% immune, naturally + 57% immune, vaccinated = 74% immune

1/(1-0.74) = 3.84 R0 required for exponential growth. (And I'm not even counting an additional ~1% of the population getting infected each month...which helps too.)

How is that level of immunity going to sustain outbreaks?

And that's just by July 4th. It's not like kids over 12 aren't going to get vaccinated - they'll start getting vaccinated next week, probably, and they're not being counted here. Those numbers will keep going up.


I'm NOT saying we're going to see zero cases everywhere, or that we won't have local outbreaks - we might. But things will be contained, and they will die out assuming the vaccines remain effective.

But, once we get to the levels above, my belief is that the masks coming down will be fine. It won't be my choice, but I think it's fine at a population level. I also think enough people will be careful on their own accord (like me), with no restrictions at all, that it will continue to snub the spread of the virus slightly. People like not having colds and not being sick.

This is exactly what happened in India. People became so callous that even most of the doctors skipped vaccines.

Totally different. Barely anyone has been vaccinated in India, partly because they simply don't have the supply and it's a financial issue for them (affluent people get the vaccine, is what I have heard from the people I've talked to about the situation). Also there were multiple people crowing about herd immunity having been reached in India through natural infection....which is just...dumb.

On the serious topic of the nanobot trackers built into the vaccine (too soon?) :

 

[EVNow]

17% immune, naturally + 57% immune, vaccinated = 74% immune

Hmmm ... that's almost 95% of adults.

 

[eevee-fan]

I'm skeptical 70% of adults would be enough - but atleast it is a lot more achievable than 70% of population.


60% is probably enough to kill Covid with virus hygiene in place. The problem is - as we have seen time & again - when the cases come down, so do the masks.

This is exactly what happened in India. People became so callous that even most of the doctors skipped vaccines.

By fall if Covid doesn't mostly disappear - we'll have a children led resurgence as most schools will go back to in-person schooling.

30% of the population will get infected and recover or die, goal achieved.

 

[TespaceX]

I meant diminishing returns in the likelihood of seeing higher levels of vaccination. Approaching 80% is going to be tough, I doubt we'll see much higher than that in most places.

It would be miraculous to get to 80%.
If I’m not mistaken, there’s not a single vaccine close to that number that the general population has gotten in history.

 

[TespaceX]

It's not like kids over 12 aren't going to get vaccinated - they'll start getting vaccinated next week, probably, and they're not being counted here. Those numbers will keep going up.

Based on my socialverse, my prediction is that there will be less 12-16 year olds getting a vaccine than we imagine or hope—unless middle/junior/high schools require proof of vaccination.

The number of kids getting a vaccine will be capped by however many parents got a vaccine. Parents who have not gotten a vaccine will most likely not have their kids get one. Plus, there are also parents who have gotten a vaccine but are hesitant to have their kids vaccinated.

 

[eevee-fan]

Based on my socialverse, my prediction is that there will be less 12-16 year olds getting a vaccine than we imagine or hope—unless middle/junior/high schools require proof of vaccination.

The number of kids getting a vaccine will be capped by however many parents got a vaccine. Parents who have not gotten a vaccine will most likely not have their kids get one. Plus, there are also parents who have gotten a vaccine but are hesitant to have their kids vaccinated.

Unless they have lots of kids and decide to test the kids before the parents get theirs.

 

[EVNow]

Based on my socialverse, my prediction is that there will be less 12-16 year olds getting a vaccine than we imagine or hope—unless middle/junior/high schools require proof of vaccination.

Vaccination is already required to attend schools in a lot of states - so, they will probably do that for Covid too in those states. Only thing is vaccines for all school aged kids won't be ready by September.

 

[TespaceX]

Vaccination is already required to attend schools in a lot of states - so, they will probably do that for Covid too in those states. Only thing is vaccines for all school aged kids won't be ready by September.

The vaccines will need to get approval first (not just EUA) I believe. For example, the California public universities, as well as many private universities, have said they will require it only when approval is given.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Hmmm ... that's almost 95% of adults.

In quantity, yes. But because some of that % of natural infection is children, it’s closer to 90% of adults. It’s amazing what happens if indeed 40% of the population has been infected and adults have been infected more than kids (I would guess ~35% but the CDC seems to estimate otherwise).

It makes sense. You vaccinate 70% of adults or so, and you’re going to have about 90% with some immunity, most likely. It’s not certain because of course it depends on the amount of overlap.

It would be miraculous to get to 80%.
If I’m not mistaken, there’s not a single vaccine close to that number that the general population has gotten in history.

90% is pretty common. It is in fact required for measles since it is so contagious (R0 may be above 10).

This is for children so it’s a bit different than the current situation of course.

Anyway there’s not likely any pressing need to get to 80% coverage. Would be nice to get there eventually.

FastStats

FastStats is an official application from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and puts access to topic-specific statistics at your fingertips.

www.cdc.gov

The biggest question is whether the virus will actually throw us a curveball at some point. India is cranking out lots of opportunities for the virus, and worldwide cases are at an all-time high right now. That’s not great. But we’ll see what happens. So far, so good.

 

[cwerdna]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/world-s-most-vaccinated-nation-reintroduces-curbs-as-cases-surge

World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Activates Curbs as Cases Rise​

May 4, 2021, 2:11 PM PDT Updated on May 5, 2021, 2:07 AM PDT

• Seychelles has fully vaccinated 62.2% of its population
• Covid-19 has hammered island nation’s tourism economy