Coronavirus

[Dave EV]

Well, duh, that's because these are political issues, not medical ones.
Just fire all health personnel, fewer troublemakers, and it additionally saves money...
Tennessee's former top vaccine official: 'I am afraid for my state'

I highly encourage everyone to read this story @NikolaACDC posted - it's quite a statement from Dr. Mischell Fiscus, the former (fired) Medical Director of Tennessee's Vaccine-Preventable Diseases and Immunization program from the Tennessee Department of Health (say that 3 times fast!).

 

[wdolson]

I agree with that, but the solution is not to just throw up their hands and say there is nothing to be done. Have to figure out how to convince (or force) people. It's totally ok to force people to get the vaccine if they want to do certain activities or jobs, once it is out of EUA. Totally normal, for the good of society.

Unfortunately COVID has become an intensely political issue. One TV news host describes the phenomenon as "Earth 1" and "Earth 2". On Earth 1 people believe in science and at least listen to experts. On Earth 2, all science is bunk and whatever the person they trust most said most recently is gospel, even if it's a complete contradiction from what that person said yesterday.

I've heard stories from nurses who had to deal with Earth 2ers in the hospital dying from COVID convinced COVID was a hoax.

Various professions can require people get vaccinated and a lot already have. But there are still a lot of people who don't fall under those restrictions. Businesses that require people who are unvaccinated to wear masks in their establishments can't enforce it because the anti-vaxxers can be violent about not wearing masks too.

I would say the US is desperately trying to flatten the curve. We're doing all we can to bring the numbers up to keep the trend line flat. Hopefully we won't have too much overshoot.

All pretty predictable so far. Will likely be fairly rapidly self-limiting. Would be nice if we could get approval of the vaccine for the youngest kids ASAP, so younger kids could be vaccinated. They're vulnerable and have no choice right now but to remain that way. It also causes a lot of stress for otherwise vaccinated families.

Delta is the worst variant so far. Next worse will be a variant of Delta which is also significantly more lethal. And if it can get around the vaccines, everyone is in the soup. That's the nightmare scenario keeping people like Fauci up at night.

There is about 20% of the American population who live on Earth 2 and refuse to believe Earth 1 is real. It's a serious problem, but I don't have an answer.

 

[eevee-fan]

KGO-TV: Vaccinated CA man gets breakthrough COVID case after trip to Las Vegas, spreads to family.

Vaccinated CA man gets breakthrough COVID case after trip to Las Vegas, spreads to family

Sean says he and his wife even drove to Las Vegas, instead of flying, as an extra precaution. But he believes despite being vaccinated, the mistake was "I took the option to take my mask off."

abc7news.com

 

[ReddyLeaf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415023788777934850

Here’s a suggestion: Make the current ridiculous child tax credit contingent on every child must be current on all vaccinations.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

KGO-TV: Vaccinated CA man gets breakthrough COVID case after trip to Las Vegas, spreads to family.

Vaccinated CA man gets breakthrough COVID case after trip to Las Vegas, spreads to family

Sean says he and his wife even drove to Las Vegas, instead of flying, as an extra precaution. But he believes despite being vaccinated, the mistake was "I took the option to take my mask off."

abc7news.com

No surprises. Vaccines work! But you can also get infected.

 

[uujjj2]

Same in CA.
The hospitals and clinics that my extended family members work at are admitting delta COVID patients more these days.


Since back to school is coming up, CA today released new guidelines:
- no mask => alternative (remote) learning
- no distancing (not even 3’) required
- schools and bus drivers are required to provide a mask if a student forgets their mask
- mask wearing can be waived with approved medical exemptions, but still need to wear a plastic shield
- schools are required to provide full-time in-person learning. No more partial day or hybrid schedule—unless it’s an additional option to a full-time schedule
- exposed individuals of known infected are allowed to go to school as long as they don’t show symptoms, but need a weekly test.

The new COVID rules in California public schools is "wear a face mask", and nothing else.

 

[wdolson]

No surprises. Vaccines work! But you can also get infected.

Some numbers are beginning to emerge about the effectiveness of the vaccines. In May there were 18,000 COVID-19 deaths. only 150 were fully vaccinated, though there is some uncertainty to the data.
Nearly all COVID deaths in US are now among unvaccinated

Even if you assume quite a few breakthrough infections and deaths are missed, the incidence of serious cases among those fully vaccinated is very, very low.

Some more data on breakthroughs specifically
CDC says roughly 4,100 people have been hospitalized or died with Covid breakthrough infections after vaccination

4115 fully vaccinated people have been hospitalized and/or died as of late June. 76% of those people were over 65. Probably a large number of those who had serious cases after vaccination also had underlying conditions.

Delta is so contagious that breakthrough cases may become more common, but the data shows that the odds of being fully immune or having a more mild case after being fully vaccinated is much higher than for those who have not been vaccinated.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

but the data shows that the odds of being fully immune or having a more mild case after being fully vaccinated is much higher than for those who have not been vaccinated.

The data also seem to increasingly show that natural infection leads to similar immunity to vaccination (previously it was not very clear), though the impact of variants and how it affects natural immunity is not well established yet.

This is good for limiting future outbreaks of the disease.

In any case, vaccinated people should understand it is essential for others to become vaccinated (or infected) for their own vaccines to be fully effective. This is just common sense, of course. Until then, wearing masks indoors when the status of any individual is unknown is a good idea.

 

[wdolson]

The data also seem to increasingly show that natural infection leads to similar immunity to vaccination (previously it was not very clear), though the impact of variants and how it affects natural immunity is not well established yet.

This is good for limiting future outbreaks of the disease.

In any case, vaccinated people should understand it is essential for others to become vaccinated (or infected) for their own vaccines to be fully effective. This is just common sense, of course. Until then, wearing masks indoors when the status of any individual is unknown is a good idea.

We decided to start wearing masks in stores again and when I went to the store Tuesday I noticed about 2/3 of the people in there were masked.

 

[FlatSix911]

It has been so thoroughly politicized that unfortunately there probably is nothing anyone in the current administration can do to get those people to take the vaccine.

Today's county map from Per capita covid-19 cases and deaths
shows how regional COVID has become.
View attachment 684006

Interesting site... thanks for sharing Per capita covid-19 cases and deaths
Here is another view that shows the daily deaths per 100,000 persons... a key metric for the Western US States.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

We decided to start wearing masks in stores again and when I went to the store Tuesday I noticed about 2/3 of the people in there were masked.

This is why I think Trevor Bedford's ~11% prediction (~30 million additional cases, ~10 million identified) for additional cases due to Delta or whatever variant is likely to be high. This assumes minimal immune escape, of course - if that happens we are in real trouble! Anyway, what people actually do does seem to cause case growth to level off and lowers the Rt. Also increasing cases will likely lead to increasing vaccination rates to some extent...and those vaccinations add up over time and will reduce the vulnerable pool.

 

[Jeff N]

This is why I think Trevor Bedford's ~11% prediction (~30 million additional cases, ~10 million identified) for additional cases due to Delta or whatever variant is likely to be high. This assumes minimal immune escape, of course - if that happens we are in real trouble! Anyway, what people actually do does seem to cause case growth to level off and lowers the Rt. Also increasing cases will likely lead to increasing vaccination rates to some extent...and those vaccinations add up over time and will reduce the vulnerable pool.

I’m less optimistic than you are. I’m seeing a big upswing in néw cases in multiple countries and early trends that indicate that the U.S. is following a month behind.

The U.K. recorded 43,000 new cases yesterday which is consistent with a quickly ascending case count in recent days. That’s the equivalent of around 200,000 cases in the U.S. (with almost 5X population) which is similar to the case counts we had here during the bad days of December 2020 and January 2021.

Lots fewer people will die since the most vulnerable are generally well vaccinated but hospitals may still be clogged with unvaccinated younger people, lots of new “Long Covid” cases may occur, and there may be substantial economic impacts.

I thought we would see more impact from Alpha but it largely fizzled here. Maybe I’ll be wrong again but Delta looks serious to me.

The latest estimate of the Covid-19 effective reproduction rate shows that t’s zooming up as Delta takes over in a way that it did not do with Alpha.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I’m less optimistic than you are. I’m seeing a big upswing in néw cases in multiple countries and early trends that indicate that the U.S. is following a month behind.

To be clear, what I was saying is that I think that 10 million additional counted cases (30 million infections) is unlikely over the next few months. But is 5 million possible? Sure. That's a lot, and it could mean peaks in case count in excess of 50k per day. I don't think we'll hit 100k 7-day average though. I don't think we will see a repeat of anything like the winter surge. I guess we'll see.

The latest estimate of the Covid-19 effective reproduction rate. It’s zooming up as Delta takes over in a way that it did not do with Alpha.

But restrictions are also way more lax than they were with Alpha, which adds to the already higher reproductive rate of Delta. That will change, as health authorities react and individuals react.

Lots fewer people will die since the most vulnerable are generally well vaccinated but hospitals may still be clogged, lots of new “Long Covid” cases, and there may be substantial economic impacts.

I think regionally there will be problems but in more heavily vaccinated areas it will be fine. I think economic impacts will be muted since most people feel pretty safe at this point (they're either vaccinated and fairly confident in their vaccination (whether or not they should be and how they behave is another question!), or they're not and don't care at all).

 

[Jeff N]

That's a lot, and it could mean peaks in case count in excess of 50k per day. I don't think we'll hit 100k 7-day average though.

The last 7 day average in the U.S. works out to 21k per day. Exceeding 50k per day in 3-4 weeks from now seems entirely doable. Could we reach or surpass 100k per day? I’m not sure but it certainly seems possible. Decent vaccination rates with great vaccines help a lot but it’s counterbalanced by Delta and a big reduction in mask usage and the Great Reopening of entertainment venues, travel, offices, and schools.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The last 7 day average in the U.S. works out to 21k per day. Exceeding 50k per day in 3-4 weeks from now seems entirely doable. Could we reach or surpass 100k per day? I’m not sure but it certainly seems possible. Decent vaccination rates with great vaccines help a lot but it’s counterbalanced by Delta and a big reduction in mask usage and the Great Reopening of entertainment venues, travel, offices, and schools.

For sure. 50k/day seems quite likely. It'll be "interesting" to see how it goes. I do wonder how the UK results are impacted by their highly staged vaccine rollout (certain younger communities that interact a lot are basically totally unvaccinated, and there are minimal restrictions - vaccination status starting to change around now, finally), and their use of AZ (efficacy against infection still a little unclear I feel).

I think we benefit somewhat from slightly higher historical infection rates than the UK (I've posted about the estimates here before...I think a few % more Americans were likely infected, based on death rates and population age differences). And the vaccination strategy and cultural factors here may have led to less overlap of infections and vaccination which helps as well.

We're already seeing statewide changes in recommendations, etc. A little less uniformity than in England. Not sure how that will work to snub infection growth.

As usual, we have a patchwork of different epidemics spread across the US. I think that makes a higher peak unlikely.

We're also still adding 250k additional people vaccinated (dose 1) per day - currently far higher than the rate of infection.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Lots of vaccinated people are going to get COVID and end up in the ICU, but that's ok and expected. Wear a mask and be careful if you want to reduce your risk. Common sense.
Particularly important to mitigate risk, if you're going back to a work environment. I just sit in my cubicle masked up with an N95 now that we're back in the mandatory hybrid model, even though 97+% of my workplace is vaccinated (and unvaccinated and "undisclosed" people are required to wear masks). Maybe I should add safety glasses too. I should go to my P100 respirator if I'm going that route, I guess. Wonder how long hybrid will last, lol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415314151476453379

Also, this is for J&J but applies to other vaccines as well. Antibodies and resistance to variants gets better with time because your body naturally develops reasonable immunity to variants because it's a crazy (and seemingly miraculous) complex system of affinity maturation, somatic hypermutation, etc.

Also vaccine continues to be nice and effective after at least 8 months, no problems. Keeps on trucking, could be indefinitely for all we know. These are just antibody response of course and there is so much more to the immune response of course. But antibodies are good for assessing likelihood of infection it seems. Hopefully we largely ignore boosters for now and focus on getting people worldwide (and here!) vaccinated!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415416033892986881

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So frustrating that articles like this do not mention the SIZE of the off-site party. Was it 50 people? 200 people? 300 fully vaccinated people? Or what?

It renders the article meaningless! I'd guess it was a large 200-300 person gathering of mostly fully vaccinated folks. But we'll apparently never know. (Basically this article and all the similar articles I could find are simple clickbait without that info.)

 

[Jeff N]

From those hand wringers at CNN:

'We are seeing people passing quicker than before': What hospitals look like in US Covid hot spots | CNN

With cases of the virus surging in most of the United States -- driven by unvaccinated Americans and fueled by the highly contagious Delta variant -- Covid-19 hospitalizations are climbing in some parts of the country, and hospitals are again bracing for another round of devastation.

www.cnn.com

And then this (and yes, that really is his name):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415354179090927620

 

[wdolson]

This is why I think Trevor Bedford's ~11% prediction (~30 million additional cases, ~10 million identified) for additional cases due to Delta or whatever variant is likely to be high. This assumes minimal immune escape, of course - if that happens we are in real trouble! Anyway, what people actually do does seem to cause case growth to level off and lowers the Rt. Also increasing cases will likely lead to increasing vaccination rates to some extent...and those vaccinations add up over time and will reduce the vulnerable pool.

Different populations are taking different levels of precautions. This market was a local small chain that specializes in fresh produce and has a large selection of organic produce. Lots of electric cars and hybrids in the parking lot. That segment of the population is more socially aware and I've noticed they tend to be more cautious about these sorts of things.

The day before a friend went to a large farm supply store (Wilco) only a couple of miles away and she noted that she only saw one person in the store wearing a mask. The people who go to that store tend to be a different demographic.

I also saw an article I can't find right now that Delta is hitting young people much harder than previous variants. I think we will see a surge, but it will be significant in populations that are unvaccinated and much more minor in vaccinated populations.

 

[Jeff N]

I also saw an article I can't find right now that Delta is hitting young people much harder than previous variants.

You might have seen the CNN article I linked to above. Here’s a quote:

Lauren Toman, the hospital’s director of respiratory care, said that while during previous surges patients tended to be older and have preexisting conditions, patients now are younger and healthier – but are coming in sicker and getting worse more quickly.

“They rapidly decline, very fast, and then even after intubation we’ll see them rapidly decline and unfortunately we are seeing people passing quicker than before,” Toman told CNN.

And a quote about another hospital:

In the weeks since, the hospital’s Covid-19 patient numbers have more than tripled, and staff are now treating more than 70 people, an “exponential growth,” he said, that they were not expecting. To accommodate the climbing patient numbers, the hospital recently reopened two units that were previously shut down.

The overwhelming majority of those coming in sick with Covid are unvaccinated, Segarra said. Many are young – people in their 20s and 30s who are getting “extremely, extremely sick” and some of whom are dying.