Coronavirus

[Causalien]

FYI, the sounds you're hearing there are not screaming or whatever people are supposed to interpret it as. That's a government-run call-and-response "pep rally". You can see better clips here:

There has been several releases of recordings at different time.

This was an organised pep rally at the beginning at the same time each night. You can hear that in the beginning. Everyone was cheering everyone one on. However as time goes by you can tell that frustration and mental instability is slowly settling in. The most recent one have a lot of incomprehensible screaming and venting of frustration. You cannot hear any word of encouragement at all.

 

[Causalien]

Yeah, so anyone can use google translate. These are comments right out of the video.

武漢市晚上情況 封閉時間已經達到人類能承受的極限=Wuhan at night, the closing time has reached the limit of human tolerance

如果你們不反抗，就真的活在地獄裡，只能發出這種無助的叫聲=If you don't resist, you really live in hell and can only make this helpless cry!

失控之國.現在在中國殺人根本無罪.誰管你驗屍.只要沒現場殺人被發現.有屍體都是直接燒了.公安還會去調查誰殺的.搶物資都嫌慢了...難怪中國不敢派大批軍隊進駐...中國高層自己也很怕死.=The country that is out of control. It is now innocent to kill people in China. Who cares about your autopsy. As long as the killing is not found at the scene. All the bodies are burned directly. China dare not send a large number of troops ... China's top executives are also afraid of death.

中共這個政權應該趕快被消滅。=The CCP regime should be eliminated quickly.

The Chinese are impressive people. I see bright future for the young ones I met.
The CCP... They need to go, but at the same time, they've also infiltrated many asian communities and online communities. I really hope that something changes in China after this.

 

[cwerdna]

Coronavirus news and live updates: South Korean cases surge past 830 - CNN says "South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced 231 new cases today, bringing the country’s total to 833 in a massive jump."

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, so anyone can use google translate. These are comments right out of the video.

武漢市晚上情況 封閉時間已經達到人類能承受的極限=Wuhan at night, the closing time has reached the limit of human tolerance

如果你們不反抗，就真的活在地獄裡，只能發出這種無助的叫聲=If you don't resist, you really live in hell and can only make this helpless cry!

失控之國.現在在中國殺人根本無罪.誰管你驗屍.只要沒現場殺人被發現.有屍體都是直接燒了.公安還會去調查誰殺的.搶物資都嫌慢了...難怪中國不敢派大批軍隊進駐...中國高層自己也很怕死.=The country that is out of control. It is now innocent to kill people in China. Who cares about your autopsy. As long as the killing is not found at the scene. All the bodies are burned directly. China dare not send a large number of troops ... China's top executives are also afraid of death.

中共這個政權應該趕快被消滅。=The CCP regime should be eliminated quickly.

Nice selective quoting. Hey, I can play that game too!


KingPlaxton Hui
Fyrir 18 klukkustundum
武漢人民在對共產黨歡呼！
活 在當下，
該 多開心。
"Wuhan people are cheering for the Communist Party!
Living in the moment,
How happy."

Chun ho Lee
Chun ho Lee
Fyrir einum degi
只是武漢市民對黨的抗疫措施十分滿意 興奮大叫
不容外國勢力造謠生事(๑•̀ᄇ•́)و ✧"
It ’s just that the citizens of Wuhan are very satisfied with the Party ’s anti-epidemic measures.
Don't tolerate foreign rumors (生 • ̀ ᄇ • ́) و ✧"

Zuben Rhobar
Zuben Rhobar
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
武漢零確個案了嗎? 為什麽大家都歡呼?看來是没事兒了~~~
"Is there any case in Wuhan Zero? Why is everyone cheering? It seems all right ~~~"

ka wai Leong
ka wai Leong
Fyrir einum degi
這只是為了疫情好轉而歡呼，燈光還多著呢，沒事兒
"This is just to cheer for the improvement of the epidemic."

Calvinkinkin
Fyrir einum degi
武漢人民幸福感很高，晚上歡樂的叫起來
"Wuhan people have a high sense of happiness."

Sophinan
Sophinan
Fyrir 7 klukkustundum
真的，跟我住德國時世足打贏一樣，整個小區都在尖叫
"Really, just like when World Soccer won when I lived in Germany, the whole community was screaming"

Fung Luk
Fyrir einum degi
『武汉人都在忙着准备过节，商场里地铁站人山人海也没几个戴口罩的，真不知道远隔千里之外的渔村紧张个啥劲，拜托不要再碰瓷武汉啦』
"People in Wuhan are busy preparing for the festival, and there are not many people wearing masks at the subway station in the mall. I really do n’t know how nervous the fishing village is thousands of miles away. Please do n’t touch Wuhan, China."

Simon Law
Simon Law
Fyrir einum degi
仲有呢個
「为了选票，建制派也向泛民靠齐，已与台湾的国民党一样。香港人就是渣！小题大作！他们真以为香港是世界的中心，我们武汉人一点感觉也没有，无非就是江汉区有那么一点小小的恐慌，但没见有几个戴口罩。香港人太封闭了，他们不知道武汉有多大，不知道江汉区离邻近的武昌区和汉阳区有多远，更不提其他区了」
""For the sake of voting, the establishment faction also relies on the common people. It is the same as the Kuomintang in Taiwan. Hong Kong people are scum! A trivial matter! They really think that Hong Kong is the center of the world. We Wuhan people do n’t feel it at all. There was a little panic, but I didn't see a few wearing masks. Hong Kong people are too closed, they don't know how big Wuhan is, and how far Jianghan District is from the neighboring Wuchang District and Hanyang District, let alone other Zone"
-----


I could keep going on and on. But this is a really stupid game. "What random Chinese people are saying in the comments section of a Youtube video" is a dumb enough game, but "Selectively quoting what random Chinese people are saying in the comments section of a Youtube video" takes the cake.

Anyway, the numbers overnight that I wasn't able to stay up for:

Hubei: 398
Other China: 11

 

[ReflexFunds]

I think the main development this past week is that China appears to have effectively suppressed 5-6 outbreak pockets similar in size to South Korea/Italy, and even the epicenter in Hubei appears to now be under control.
I don't see how the market is so surprised that there are outbreak centres outside of China - that always seemed inevitable.
It is clear the virus can be defeated if governments take it seriously. It appears South Korea and Italy are doing so but it is less clear if other countries will do the same. And definitely the world does not have the amount of resources available that China put to work in Hubei.

 

[KarenRei]

I think the main development this past week is that China appears to have effectively suppressed 5-6 outbreak pockets similar in size to South Korea/Italy, and even the epicenter in Hubei appears to now be under control.
I don't see how the market is so surprised that there are outbreak centres outside of China - that always seemed inevitable.
It is clear the virus can be defeated if governments take it seriously. It appears South Korea and Italy are doing so but it is less clear if other countries will do the same. And definitely the world does not have the amount of resources available that China put to work in Hubei.

I think it was a shock for people to see four new outbreaks at once, while Japan was still working to get theirs under control; it overcame the news of China's successes (to the point that they're now loosening travel restrictions).

It's going to be a game of whack-a-mole for quite a while. But so long as the "moles" don't get solidly established in a place that lacks the ability to "whack" them....

 

[hobbes]

16,000 dead and 280,000 hospitalized in the US.

Flu shot better than last year, despite tough season for kids

Oh, wait, that’s the 2019-20 US flu season data as of 2 days ago.

The market loves any reason to sell. I hate the loss of life but perspective is everything.

I have been wondering about that, too - why are no cities shut down to flu if there are so many more people killed? According to this wikipedia article List of human disease case fatality rates - Wikipedia the fatality rates for typical influenza a pandemics are below 0.1%, while they´re approximately 3,4% for COVID-19. Meaning for the same number of people infected, you´d have 34 times the fatalities.

 

[avoigt]

Infection increase goes down while healed cases are up. Daily new infections down too.

Today was a good day not a bad one as painted from the media.

In fact the entire reporting reminds me about how they report Tesla unit sales by quarter. They pick a region or country small enough and that has a negative development and extrapolate globally while the global numbers show exact the opposite. Cherry-picking never gives you real information.

As an investor I always looked for opportunities where people sell because of fear. You get a great discount.

The only thing that changed in the last day is that you have some cases now in Italy which is more near for most people than China therefore they feel personally they could get it too if things bad. That alone is enough to make people feel fear while in fact the situation compared to a week ago improved.

The fact that all cases they had in Bavaria which is not far away from Northern Italy have been healed is of course not reported.

Its ridiculous.

 

[KarenRei]

There has been several releases of recordings at different time.

This was an organised pep rally at the beginning at the same time each night. You can hear that in the beginning. Everyone was cheering everyone one on. However as time goes by you can tell that frustration and mental instability is slowly settling in. The most recent one have a lot of incomprehensible screaming and venting of frustration. You cannot hear any word of encouragement at all.

I agree that there's likely an element to this; if I was stuck indoors all the time, and all of my neighbors were hooting and hollering out the window, I'd probably take part too.

That said, that's not the impression that people who share this video without context try to give. They try to give the impression that it's people screaming for help or crying in pain, when it's people shouting things like "Wuhan come on!" or just whooping out, on the tail end of a government-run call-and-response pep rally.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I have been wondering about that, too - why are no cities shut down to flu if there are so many more people killed? According to this wikipedia article List of human disease case fatality rates - Wikipedia the fatality rates for typical influenza a pandemics are below 0.1%, while they´re approximately 3,4% for COVID-19. Meaning for the same number of people infected, you´d have 34 times the fatalities.

Well, I'm not sure that we have a full idea of the Wuhan virus's death rate is. We're on high alert for the Wuhan virus so we may see a higher rate of hospitalization.

 

[KarenRei]

Well, I'm not sure that we have a full idea of the Wuhan virus's death rate is. We're on high alert for the Wuhan virus so we may see a higher rate of hospitalization.

Mean mortality rate estimate from WHO right now is about 1%, but there's a wide range within a 95% confidence interval.

 

[elasalle]

64K/77K in Wuhan almost 6-8 weeks since beginning - that's 83%. Compared to all other places, seems like things were really messed up in Wuhan before Govt put effort in place to control it. ( Note - There is some controversial stmt that there was exposure from a Bio-research lab too)

77/79K in China, yet in most cities and provinces other than Wuhan, this has been under control.

So while there will be spikes in places who are caught unaware like in Italy. Once precautions are taken, I think this will be under control. Cheers.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Iran seems the highest risk outbreak right now by far.

12 deaths implies over 1,000 cases, but only 61 cases have been identified. And if they are failing to diagnose, the 12 deaths is likely understated too.
This means infected people in Iran are likely not in appropriate quarantine.
I'm not sure Iran has the resources to deal with and contain an outbreak.

The risk is amplified because the centre of the outbreak in Iran, Qom, gets 20 million visitors annually on pilgrimage.

So this could turn into a primarily Middle East issue (and so an issue for oil production).
While China is on course to become a virus safe haven.

 

[KarenRei]

Iran seems the highest risk outbreak right now by far.

12 deaths implies over 1,000 cases, but only 61 cases have been identified. And if they are failing to diagnose, the 12 deaths is likely understated too.
This means infected people in Iran are likely not in appropriate quarantine.
I'm not sure Iran has the resources to deal with and contain an outbreak.

The risk is amplified because the centre of the outbreak in Iran, Qom, gets 20 million visitors annually on pilgrimage.

So this could turn into a primarily Middle East issue (and so an issue for oil production).
While China is on course to become a virus safe haven.

Yeah, Iran is what I've been watching with concern. The outbreak numbers thusfar have been surprisingly small (as an update, today's numbers so far are +4, although we'll probably get more later in the day), but it's hard to know at that point how much is A) it's because not many people are infected, B) whether they just haven't caught many with the disease, or C) they did but are covering it up. As you note, the number of deaths suggests a larger infected population. Another thing that suggests a larger population is that a couple people in other countries who visited Iran have come down with the disease - 3 in Kuwait, 1 in Iraq, and 1 in Afghanistan. The latter I really hope they stamp out well - there's no signs so far that there's an infected "population" in Afghanistan, but that country is not in good shape for dealing with epidemics. I wouldn't be surprised if Afghanistan (at least nominally) shuts the border or puts heavy restrictions on it.

Iran is certainly not the worst place in the world for one or more outbreak centres to exist, but it's certainly not a good one.

 

[Causalien]

Iran seems the highest risk outbreak right now by far.

12 deaths implies over 1,000 cases, but only 61 cases have been identified. And if they are failing to diagnose, the 12 deaths is likely understated too.
This means infected people in Iran are likely not in appropriate quarantine.
I'm not sure Iran has the resources to deal with and contain an outbreak.

The risk is amplified because the centre of the outbreak in Iran, Qom, gets 20 million visitors annually on pilgrimage.

So this could turn into a primarily Middle East issue (and so an issue for oil production).
While China is on course to become a virus safe haven.

I am not sure if south korea has it under control either. Yet its measures and efforts are better than jaoan. If Jaoan is not lying about their number, then the only difference I can see is that south koreans drink and smoke much more than the Japanese. Not sure about iran, maybe tgey also smoke alot?

 

[ReflexFunds]

I am not sure if south korea has it under control either. Yet its measures and efforts are better than jaoan. If Jaoan is not lying about their number, then the only difference I can see is that south koreans drink and smoke much more than the Japanese. Not sure about iran, maybe tgey also smoke alot?

Death rate numbers can also be heavily skewed if outbreaks occurred in an elderly population or in hospital wards amongst patients with pre-existing conditions.

 

[KarenRei]

I am not sure if south korea has it under control either. Yet its measures and efforts are better than jaoan. If Jaoan is not lying about their number, then the only difference I can see is that south koreans drink and smoke much more than the Japanese. Not sure about iran, maybe tgey also smoke alot?

What matters is not so much the numbers (you're not seeing new cases at the moment that people were infected - you're seeing people who got infected nearly a week ago, and not all at once); it's how much the government acknowledges the problem, how strongly they're responding to the problem, and how sound their isolation response is. In South Korea, the virus found a near-perfect host in terms of a cult, but R0 only applies for populations where no action is being taken and people go about their normal lives.

Iran is more concerning because for the most part people are going about their normal lives. When the situation is not properly acknowledged and proper measures not taken, the disease can continue its spread unhindered - every week, a new round of multiplications. I want to see convincing evidence that Iran is getting on top of this. I want to see the reported case rate in Iran spike, because the death rates and the outsiders-got-infected-inside-Iran rates suggest that there's a lot of latent cases that have not been detected - or at least, reported - yet. I want to see the public in infected areas at least wearing masks and being told to wash their hands, and workplaces taking control measures.

Outbreak centres can be controlled, but it takes acknowledgement and active measures to do so, and it's a slow process. The deeper a disease gets established, the more stringent the necessary measures and the longer it takes. Iran is only shooting itself in the foot here. All of its neighbors are going to end up closing their borders and airlines cutting of flights, and soon, if they don't step up.

 

[heltok]

Bought some Gilead shares today. It seems Remdesivir helps for Corona. Not sure if it will be used in large scale for this Covid season, but I think the Virus will be with us for a while.
Remdesivir Prevents MERS Coronavirus Disease in Monkeys | NIH: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

Also if you want to know what a good government should have done, here is a great document with guidelines for Singapore from 2009:
https://www.mha.gov.sg/docs/default-source/others/nsfpfinalversion.pdf

I guess their government’s decision to be proactive rather than being reactive(like almost other other governments) is the reason their number of new recoveries is higher than their number of new cases.

 

[Causalien]

Bought some Gilead shares today. It seems Remdesivir helps for Corona. Not sure if it will be used in large scale for this Covid season, but I think the Virus will be with us for a while.
Remdesivir Prevents MERS Coronavirus Disease in Monkeys | NIH: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

Also if you want to know what a good government should have done, here is a great document with guidelines for Singapore from 2009:
https://www.mha.gov.sg/docs/default-source/others/nsfpfinalversion.pdf

I guess their government’s decision to be proactive rather than being reactive(like almost other other governments) is the reason their number of new recoveries is higher than their number of new cases.

Monkey trials are promising. This might be the only treattment we have as trial vaccines developped for SARS caused cytokine storms. Covid 19 is very similar to sars, so I expect the same problem during trials.

 

[Causalien]

What matters is not so much the numbers (you're not seeing new cases at the moment that people were infected - you're seeing people who got infected nearly a week ago, and not all at once); it's how much the government acknowledges the problem, how strongly they're responding to the problem, and how sound their isolation response is. In South Korea, the virus found a near-perfect host in terms of a cult, but R0 only applies for populations where no action is being taken and people go about their normal lives.

Iran is more concerning because for the most part people are going about their normal lives. When the situation is not properly acknowledged and proper measures not taken, the disease can continue its spread unhindered - every week, a new round of multiplications. I want to see convincing evidence that Iran is getting on top of this. I want to see the reported case rate in Iran spike, because the death rates and the outsiders-got-infected-inside-Iran rates suggest that there's a lot of latent cases that have not been detected - or at least, reported - yet. I want to see the public in infected areas at least wearing masks and being told to wash their hands, and workplaces taking control measures.

Outbreak centres can be controlled, but it takes acknowledgement and active measures to do so, and it's a slow process. The deeper a disease gets established, the more stringent the necessary measures and the longer it takes. Iran is only shooting itself in the foot here. All of its neighbors are going to end up closing their borders and airlines cutting of flights, and soon, if they don't step up.

Hope this is true. Caused tge counter argument is that this virus just mutated to a deadlier strain OR, this virus targets religious ppl.