At least we can agree on something. Now if you could just get all your buddies that moved down here to move back to Cali since the start of the pandemic that would be great. Market is through the roof down here. Can’t afford sh*t
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Early Use of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Cuts Hospitalization Risk
“These recent acknowledgements of high-titer convalescent plasma’s benefit in treating early-stage COVID-19 — in conjunction with our peer-reviewed findings — should encourage clinicians to keep it as a viable therapy option for outpatients,” Sullivan said in a statement.
How much pain before they give up? How much pain when they do. That’s the question?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not going to reply in Main, since MODS will most likely delete this OT reply if placed there.
Elon DID NOT "predict covid cases would go to zero in April 2020". That is a narrative made up by his detractors.
What Elon DID say was the the current trend was pointing to almost zero covid by Apr.
Well, guess what? The trend changed. But Elon's detractors have not. Because you **** one horse, then you're a horse-****** for all time, right?
Don't quote shortz. They have enough access to minds without parroting their talking points.
BTW, I'm not subscribed here, so pardon in advance if you don't see a reply.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
The "trend" on March 19th 2020. Of course Elon did not explain how he came up with his estimate. I don't remember if he was following a bunch of COVID deniers by mid March.
I don't see how that is different than what I said ("predicting covid cases would go to zero in April 2020")
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
No it's an accurate description of his attitude towards Covid, which has been mostly wrong across the board. It's OK to admit when Elon is wrong even if you're an over all supporter of him.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Can not help you with that.
That chart DOES NOT show the trend as it was known on March 19, that's a backward fitting of data with heavy smoothing. When was that chart produced? Obviously fitting the data to a curve, so what's the std error-of-estimate? What's the goodness-of-fit?
Yeah. Post ACTUAL graphs that were publicly available when Elon tweeted. Trends change. As do variants.
This is a waste of time, mostly used by shortzes to bash Elon. Good luck with that.
Bye. I'm a dot.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I'm sorry, I shouldn't have posted the moving average. Here's the ACTUAL graph from March 19th using the Wayback Machine archive.
United States Coronavirus: 9,301 Cases and 152 Deaths - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.9301 cases etc.
web.archive.org
Keep in mind that at this point half of all cases in the US were in New York City. I'm still curious what trend he saw that led him to believe cases would be zero in April. It sounds like you might remember?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Yeah, that doesn't look like it's going to work.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/XCNEIKDTP5NZPBJUJ5632HFWX4.jpg)
Whole of Shanghai enters COVID lockdown despite lower symptomatic cases
Chinese authorities on Tuesday extended a lockdown in Shanghai to cover all of the financial centre's 26 million people, despite growing anger over quarantine rules in the city, where latest results show only 268 symptomatic daily COVID-19 cases.
www.reuters.com
Doggydogworld
Active Member
The Shanghai outbreak is similar in size to Wuhan, which officially peaked at ~4k cases per day but was probably more like 20k when we adjust for undercount. Omicron is more transmissible, but testing and other tools are much improved now. Bringing Shanghai cases back down to zero will be difficult, but if anyone can do it China can.
Of course a 4 day lockdown is a joke. Wuhan's lockdown lasted 2.5 months. Is Xi willing to let Shanghai suffer that long? Probably. BTW, can someone help me find the links to Elon calling Chinese officials "unelected and ignorant" fascists?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, I am particularly interested in how the CCP has been “hiding cases all this time,” for the last couple years, but now they have pivoted to allowing the information out and have allowed videos of the crowds surging past barriers, kids separated from parents, etc. Weird!
I thought this had “been going on the whole time?”
I do find the ratio of symptomatic to total cases to be a bit weird, though. I wonder about their testing regimens (type of test, Ct value used - very, very high Ct CAN lead to false positives, but no one uses such values in the rest of the world (and never have - there have basically never been false positive PCRs in the US of course)). Not sure what China is doing.
I tend to think they’re just underreporting symptomatic cases, or have a different definition for “symptomatic.”
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Yeah, that is weird. Everyone I've met who has tested positive for Omicron has had symptoms (though all fairly minor and I think all had 3 vaccine doses). My guess is that symptomatic status is recorded at the time of testing and people are lying because if you're symptomatic you have to go into a quarantine facility right away (where you'll probably catch COVID!). There also could be massive spread and they're catching a large percentage of pre-symptomatic cases.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It’s really quite interesting that we have not seen a substantial surge here in the US. Really it seems like the only explanation (other than “it is coming and it’s just delayed”) is that we’ve had far more prior infection (with lower case rates) than Europe and our weather has been just good enough to keep it from starting exponential growth. So far it is really a nothingburger even in the states with surges. Maybe that will change in a couple weeks? Anyway, the longer it holds off, the better. We are currently successfully keeping the curve flat.
Tiger
Active Member
Also their vaccine is different. I might have read somewhere that it might be 50% less efficient with new strains or along those lines. Maybe China should spend on some western vaccines?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I wasn’t comparing to China. I was comparing to Europe. The Chinese vaccine seems fine if you get three doses, though it might well be slightly less good.
China is surging because they’ve had no infection to boost overall immunity (yes it helps - not clear it is much better than a booster vaccine though - but with great cost).
It’s very clear that you have to be boosted, no matter the vaccine, to have decent results against Omicron. The immune system typically “predicts” Omicron before you get boosted, and thus the booster typically nails it.
China definitely should have given Western vaccines as an option though. Just to encourage more people to get vaccinated.
I suspect that, although the group had disbanded by 2020, the email list for Trump's Strategic and Policy Forum group of CEOs was still active and Elon was relying on Trump White House data at the time . . .
BA.2 very recently became dominant in the US. Once that happens the increase in R starts to be seen. Basically it a sum of a R <1 for BA.1 and R > 1 for BA.2.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/QSUHLZ7POFLZHEM4VZOZE7APII.jpg)
Omicron sub-variant BA.2 makes up 72% of COVID variants in U.S. - CDC
The U.S. national public health agency said on Monday the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron was estimated to account for nearly three of every four coronavirus variants in the country.
www.reuters.com
I would not be surprised if we see similar thing happening in US soon.
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