AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I can’t even follow this nonsense anymore. So weird.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, no politician of any stripe wants a critical thinking mandatory course taught in schools.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Good read as usual.
Link: Katelyn Jetelina - State of Affairs: Can we trust case numbers?
Covid-19 Wastewater Monitoring by Region: Biobot Analytics · Data
Also regional charts on above page.
Link: Katelyn Jetelina - State of Affairs: Can we trust case numbers?
Covid-19 Wastewater Monitoring by Region: Biobot Analytics · Data
Also regional charts on above page.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Article in The NY Times criticizing the Chinese strategy as another case of sparrow control is all well and good, but seems odd they did not mention the potential for perhaps 2 million deaths in China relatively rapidly. It’s hard to separate the performative Communist stuff from the true concerns, certainly. But such an article should at least attempt to estimate the Chinese exposure - it’s just denialism otherwise. And I think this is probably a reason China is reluctant to relax. They should definitely have tried to be more like New Zealand though - only would have had to deal with a few hundred thousand deaths that way! The current strategy is awful - it made sense until a year ago.
Paywall for most:
www.nytimes.com
I guess you could ask why China is even worried, since they can just hide the deaths anyway? At least so some claim. We’ll see if they can keep them hidden. They seem to be in Shanghai so far, though it could also be due to reporting delays.
Paywall for most:
China’s ‘Zero Covid’ Mess Proves Autocracy Hurts Everyone (Published 2022)
The fear in China is that the strict coronavirus policy has become another Mao-style political campaign with devastating effects.
I guess you could ask why China is even worried, since they can just hide the deaths anyway? At least so some claim. We’ll see if they can keep them hidden. They seem to be in Shanghai so far, though it could also be due to reporting delays.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I really doubt that only 7% of cases are being recorded. Not sure of IHME’s methodology for that. I could believe 15% (which is somewhat worse than historical numbers probably). How did they come up with 7%?Good read as usual.
Link: Katelyn Jetelina - State of Affairs: Can we trust case numbers?
Covid-19 Wastewater Monitoring by Region: Biobot Analytics · Data
Also regional charts on above page.
Just doesn’t seem to align particularly well with wastewater evidence, etc.
It would be good if true though - suggests a generally quite mild illness, perhaps similar to a severe flu (substantially less than 0.1% IFR).
I think that’s unlikely given our vaccination rates.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Interesting to note that this is not the first time that China has revised its death count.
I would not trust any data provided by the current regime... Johns Hopkins has been tracking since early 2020.
Hubei Timeline - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Experts believe the novel coronavirus began infecting humans in late 2019 in Wuhan, a city in China's Hubei Province. After an 11-week lockdown, Wuhan lifted restrictions on outgoing travel on April 8 after reporting a dramatic decrease in cases.
coronavirus.jhu.edu
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
Yeah, the article says: "on March 31, 2022 IMHE reported 27,400 cases but estimated 404,600 “true” cases due to underreporting and asymptomatic infection." That'd be great news, implying ~0.05% IFR. Truly "just the flu". Same with hospitalizations. 1.6k ICU patients now out of 400k+ daily 10 days ago means we wouldn't stress our hospitals even if cases grew 10x to a crazy 4 million/day.
Unfortunately these IHME numbers aren't credible. Seems like they've gone off the deep end again.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Another comparative chart on US cases vs. deaths... click on the Johns Hopkins link for other datasets.
coronavirus.jhu.edu
United States - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins
United States - COVID New Cases, Deaths, Testing Data - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
coronavirus.jhu.edu
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Related:
Quote: "4/12 Another day, another rise in greater Boston's wastewater Covid levels. Now at Delta levels. Looks to be doubling every 10 days."
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
My kingdom for a log plot!
Definitely seems to be on the rise throughout the northeast. Seems like seasonal factors would make the South next? Will be interesting to see how much this can grow. Seems like it’s going to be limited but maybe it will explode like England/UK.
Though the current divergence of prevalence data and actual case data in the UK definitely suggests that they have had less infection than the US…so hopefully that is the reason why we’re doing better so far…
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Highlevel info with some simply % change numbers:
Stephanie Tait
️ @StephTaitWrites Apr 11
Stephanie Tait
️ @StephTaitWrites Apr 11
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Is this sewage data?Highlevel info with some simply % change numbers:
Stephanie Tait
If so, have to be very careful. There’s no doubt there’s an upswing in cases and infection, but establishing a clear direct correlation between wastewater concentrations and infection prevalence is difficult. And % increase is tricky when starting from very low baselines (which can happen with noisy unsmoothed data).
Not saying there is not a problem - just saying this data is a bit tricky to interpret.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah, pretty much unusable data. I can't even easily find the concentrations at that CDC site. They are there, but generally highly inaccessible. Definitely needs a lot of post-processing.
Here's a plot from what appears to be the Salem data (the 5172% one), provided by the CDC. If it's not right, I apologize, but just using the tools available. I tried to download the actual data and it looked like it was NA since 3/30 for treatment plant 961.
Could this explode to prior highs? Possibly! We'll see. Exponential growth isn't a problem until it's suddenly a problem. Is it a problem right now? Doesn't seem to be an emergency (see prior statement about exponentials).
Adding: Looking at the data that is available, looks like it is at 24 million units (claimed to be normalized but I have my doubts) as of two weeks ago (the very latest data), up from 1 million in early March, and down from a high of 260 million in mid-January. Not sure where 5172% came from though (2400% seems more accurate).
It's good that they're introducing a two-week lag on this data, otherwise it might be useful. Important to make it a lagging indicator like everything else.
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I watched this segment of PBS NewsHour about the lockdown and tactics in Shanghai. They separated it out into this video:
- it's under 7 minutes long
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