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Coronavirus

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@jbcarioca Do we use this drug on a healthy 20 year old with no shortness of breath? In that case, the risks would probably outweigh the likely benefit. What about using the drug on someone 90 years old (the approximate age of my mother) if they pick up the disease, are still in the early stages, and have a 10-27% chance of losing their life to COVID-19? In such a case, I think the risk vs. likely benefit tilts in favor of using the drug

Fwiw, i was telling my sister that i was now drinking tonic water, she replied that she can't drink tonic water, it upsets her heart. I told her if she must tell that to any doctor re: covid19 because there is good chance that most of australia and particularly my town is under an RCT with a 50% 50% odds of being given antimalarial as part covid19 treatment.

So in short, i think it is far more likely that a 20yr old will beneficially receive antimalarials than a 90yr old for covid19.
 
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'There were 7 men and 4 women with a mean age of 58.7 years (range: 20-77), 8 had significant comorbidities associated with poor outcomes (obesity: 2; solid cancer: 3; hematological cancer: 2; HIV-infection: 1)

No Evidence of Rapid Antiviral Clearance or Clinical Benefit with the Combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Infection - ScienceDirect

The cynic would say that covid19 is a remarkably effective at improving cancer and AIDS statistics.
 
As for the rest of the country ?
Probably weeks away, and who knows in the brain dead, trumper and evangelical infected Southern states.

I live in the south and have to admit my state may vote for Trump again. But after his mangling of this response and the added insanity of our governor's response I have hope. In the meantime it would help if you would not lump all southerners in with the supporters of the Moron in Chief.
 
Australia (nb last day tends to change due lagg)
new-and-cumulative-covid-19-cases-in-australia-by-notification-date_5.png


New cases down, recoveries up, fatalities up
 
@jbcarioca ,

I believe we're in a bit of a "perfect is the enemy of good" situation right now with no "perfect" studies to draw upon and yet a fair amount of data that is less than perfect and people RIGHT NOW having to make life or death decisions about whether to use the drug. While it may be dangerous to use a drug with known side effects it is also dangerous to not use that drug if it offers sufficient promise when the patient is facing a 10-27% chance of death if the decision is made to not use the drug.

Oh, so many of my work emails have started with "perfect is the enemy of good"...
 
Disconnect between reality and the market ? Don't they know the # of cases is tied to # of tests at this point ?

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

Investors were encouraged by data that shows a slowing in the number of daily U.S. coronavirus cases, although it is still early to determine a lasting trend. There were about 30,000 new cases on Thursday, 32,100 cases on Friday, 33,260 cases on Saturday, and then a slowing to just 28,200 new cases Sunday, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins.
ps : Like this Bill Ackman tweet.

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.​
 
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Today the australian government is expected to make public its modelling. If it reflects anything, it is their expectation that the the day by day changes to the model itself are maturing and less need to explain why the model yesterday is different to the model today.
 
Disconnect between reality and the market ? Don't they know the # of cases is tied to # of tests at this point ?

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

Investors were encouraged by data that shows a slowing in the number of daily U.S. coronavirus cases, although it is still early to determine a lasting trend. There were about 30,000 new cases on Thursday, 32,100 cases on Friday, 33,260 cases on Saturday, and then a slowing to just 28,200 new cases Sunday, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins.
ps : Like this Bill Ackman tweet.

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.​

Plus with home deaths not being counted in NY and elsewhere. Just seems like the market is desperate for good news.
 
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Disconnect between reality and the market ? Don't they know the # of cases is tied to # of tests at this point ?

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

Investors were encouraged by data that shows a slowing in the number of daily U.S. coronavirus cases, although it is still early to determine a lasting trend. There were about 30,000 new cases on Thursday, 32,100 cases on Friday, 33,260 cases on Saturday, and then a slowing to just 28,200 new cases Sunday, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins.
ps : Like this Bill Ackman tweet.

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.​

Lower daily numbers and remember that UW just updated their model showing lower death # (96k down to 82k) on Apr 5.