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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
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X Fan
Active Member
Similar to any heavily bureaucratic organization, WHO has been wrong (ie Ebola) and has made many mistakes.
Hopefully they are right, but we'll see (I worked in Asia during the SARS period so clearly it's possible....although this virus is clearly different than SARS).
Hoping for the best!!!!
There are dozens and dozens (maybe hundreds) of different test kits available for the flu. A wide range of methods including rapid molecular assays, RT-PCR, nucleus acid amplification, IF assays, RIDTs. These all have varying levels of sensitivity, specificity, cost, and time. Some tests are general and some can identify flu subtypes. But, you can’t just test every single patient that comes through the ER for every type of flu.
Exactly my point. They make it sound like a ton of patients are going through the door and testing negative for every single type of flu, except COVID-19 because they can't get the test for the latter, and thus one can conclude that they're all COVID-19 by process of elimination. This makes no sense at all.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Well, with CV-19, I doubt any doctor is going to diagnose without a test. People are afraid to miss work without a diagnosis because they can be fired.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Seattle Flu Study tested 1000 samples and only found 1 COVID-19 case. That's wildly inconsistent with this "99% sure" doctor.
The test kit situation is completely FUBAR, though. We can't formulate coherent public policy from a position of ignorance. Last I saw the Snohomish teen mentioned above wasn't even counted as an official case because he wasn't tested with a CDC kit. Even though they sequenced the virus's RNA!
Knowledge is power. We need widespread testing to gain knowledge. We aren't even at step one - knowing who has it and who doesn't.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
U.S. virus death toll rises to 11 with California victim
Officials in Placer County, northwest of Sacramento, said an elderly person who tested positive for COVID-19 Tuesday after returning from a San Francisco-Mexico cruise had died. The victim had underlying health conditions, authorities said.
That doesn't sound good for the cruise ...
Where's the source for the 1000 samples tested? I read the article here but no mention of the number of samples they have completed testing for: https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/
These researches estimate ~600 people may have been infected in the Washington outbreak. Do we really think an outbreak in the US is priced in now in stocks?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
For Washington, sure.
For a state like NM that has zero cases, and in a patient with no risk factors ? Not important, and tests in short supply should not be wasted.
I commented 'BS' on your earlier post because of the ignorant, hysterical statement that Flu test negative people with URI symptoms are probably Covid-19 infections. Even in SK only ~ 3 - 5% of tests are ncov-19 positive.
Speaking of my state of NM, I just read
Contrast and compare your hysteria with a reasonable, graded approach. Cheers to the NM DOH.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Why WA, for sure ? Because now its spreading in the community ? Do you know why it spread in the community - because of strict testing guidelines (and completely botching the response with faulty kits / so few kits).
After all, 2 weeks back you would have said the same thing about WA.
Now what do you do with all the cruise ship passengers of that San Francisco - Mexico cruise ?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
It is idiocy to group 'testing guidelines' with 'did not follow testing guidelines.'
EVNow
Well-Known Member
What ?
I don't even know anymore what your argument is. You seem to be saying - CDC absolutely right and there should be very limited testing - because there are so few test kits available. Is that what you are saying ?
I'm saying there should be a lot more testing kits - to test much more freely. Both as a way to contain the outbreak - as well s to reassure the public.
IMHO? "Largely". The markets - IMHO - seem to be assuming that this will go pandemic. This thread is hardly the only place where people are discussing that there's undiagnosed spread in the US. It's all over the news. I could be wrong, of course, but... it's hardly news that this is "out there".
Recovery will occur when they come to decide that life will go on.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
It was in a New York Times article.
I guarantee the market knows actual cases far exceed the official count in the "don't test, don't tell" US. The big drops last week reflect the realization that CV is out in the community vs. Kudlow the Klown's "air tight" containment. Right now the market thinks:
1. The idiotic test kit shortage will soon end
2. Widespread testing will ID outbreaks early enough to prevent Wuhan, USA scenarios
3. Outbreaks will be countered with individual quarantines that don't disrupt the economy
4. Certain industries such as travel and hospitality will have a couple bad quarters, then recover
The market also thinks most deaths are 70+ years old and not major contributors to corporate earnings. A half-dozen ~500 person outbreaks like Seattle won't change sentiment. Finding out there are actually 100k people infected in the US wouldn't change sentiment either, IMHO, as it would mean mortality is no worse than regular flu.
As have been mentioned a couple times, the cynical side notes that it's a lot cheaper for an old person to die of a virus than a slow wasting disease. In that regard, it's actually an economic gain in the longer term. In the shorter term, we'll lose some companies with shaky balance sheets, particularly airlines and in the tourism industry. Partially offsetting this, consumer goods will have a good quarter, and the medical industry will have some great quarters. There will be general negative headwinds, however, related to higher rates of absenteeism and worse consumer sentiment.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure about this.
From various statements and actions locally (including daily mails from my office and from the school etc), I expect big disruptions when someone tests positive.
- Individual school will be shutdown, for the first case. More cases would shutdown the school district indefinitely. Already there are a number of petitions going around to shutdown schools with 10k+ signatures. Same for the university.
- With an office, when an individual or two tests positive - they will do "cleaning" and quarantine co-workers. Few more cases would close the office "indefinitely".
- All large gatherings will be banned, at some point (county already talking about it)
- At some point flights will be banned or voluntarily shutdown by airlines when the # of people traveling plummets. (United scaled back 10% already)
All this for Seattle area. What happens if this repeats in other cities … ?
My pessimistic view is because of knee-jerk reaction we see with everything in US. One AV accident - lets ban AV. One "tested negative" case in the immigration center - lets close it for 14 days. School closed for a week because a staff's family member had flu-like symptoms.
What happens when we have 1,000 confirmed cases in the city ?
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