While not exactly the same thing, having now spoken to a cross-section of friends and family across four continents and spent a lot of time in various forums, I believe what we're witnessing is the Kubler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief model writ large across global society.
Phase 1 Denial. Most people are still stuck in this phase. I think this certainly goes for the US leadership and most of the money in the markets. Public at large for sure. In my own denial phase, I found contorted reasons why I thought the Chinese Communist Party was over-reacting, that professors from esteemed institutions were scaremongering to increase their grants etc... and I went about my business in happy obliviousness. For most people it seems to be on the lines of "this is just flu".
(Most people in the West didn't enter this phase until about a week or so ago, before that they were in what I'd term Phase 0 Ignorance)
Phase 2 Anger. Lashing out at anyone they think looks Chinese. Getting angry about events being cancelled. Angry at the media for hysteria. Getting angry at people like me on the internet who shake them out of Phase 1. I don't recall being in this phase myself, perhaps those around me would disagree?
Phase 3 Bargaining. "Ok I can see there's a problem. But don't worry, because of X, Y, Z it's not as bad as you think. Look, if we strip out the 4 worst countries and only focus on those where the progression of disease is not yet as advanced, the death rate isn't as bad you think. Smart people are working on a treatment. Viruses always blow themselves out. It's only [0.7%/1%/2%], that's trivial. There might be benefits from old people being carried away earlier Etc... There's a few people here at this stage. I was there myself about a week ago when I was mainly focused on the economic impact of the crisis, when I thought generalised Containment was by far the most likely outcome.
Phase 4 Depression. I have spent the past 3-4 days in this phase and it has not been pleasant. I realised that Containment was almost certainly going to fail and we are looking at a once in a century event that will leave none of our lives untouched. And everything I have seen out of health professionals and responsible governments in the last few days tells me that they have realised the same thing.
Phase 5 Acceptance. I'm trying hard to get to this stage with the help of my wife and friends, who are scientifically trained and got here in some cases several weeks ago. Society as a whole is nowhere close to this point. Where they can have a rationale conversation about how we might very well be looking at more deaths globally than the Holocaust (or even worse). And what this means for them and society as a whole.
So what does it look like when you get to Acceptance?
- Prepare yourself financially. For people that get there early enough, this will mean reducing or eliminating exposures to risk bearing assets like stocks, which are likely to swing with as much volatility as the average human's mood. Since this is an Investor Forum above all else, the most dangerous time will be when society hits Stage 4 Depression. Or to use another related word, Despair.
- Prepare yourself practically. Get sensible provisions in place. I don't personally expect most countries to face a food shortage but it's peace of mind to know you have a few provisions. If you needed to care for a loved one at home, consider what you'd need. Soap, detergent, masks, digital thermometer, possibly a cheap Blood Pressure reader and O2 saturation / pulse reader. This is all available cheaply on Amazon. If you have a small business, what's your plan for each phase of the crisis?
- Prepare yourself mentally. Not much advice I can give here. I am youngish (but with an underlying condition). I am trying to get in the mindset that there might be less time left with certain people than I'd imagined. So let's live a lot of life while we can, even if that ends up being in the confines of our home. Try not to dwell on what might happen, don't let little things get to you and try not to speak unkind words. Any more suggestions I'm welcome to hear them.
- Prepare for the future. None of us know what might shake out of this but there are reasons to be optimistic. We might see societies become less materialistic and selfish, more altruistic and kind. We should see an increased weight placed on the importance of science, education, family. And if the combined horrors of 1914 - 1919 are anything to go by, the 2020s may match the 1920s, a prosperous and exhilarating decade (let's leave the 1930s in the past shall we), powered by technology, productivity gains and positivity.
Best of luck to you all.
