Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

It seems that there may be more reporting lags on Sundays. I

You need to correct for this in your model. It looks like there have been huge jumps the last three Tuesdays.

 

[bkp_duke]

Seriously??? Contagion had a fictitious virus that killed large numbers of young, healthy people. This is nothing of the sort. Again, I have to ask: where were you in October 2019? Were you calling for a national shutdown because the upcoming flu season was going to cause:

1. 39 to 56 million cases
2. 18 to 26 million doctors visits
3. 410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations
4. 24,000 to 62,000 deaths

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

This happens every year in the US. The main fatalities every year are the same for Covid-19 and the flu. Where were your calls for government to enforce social distancing, wear masks, etc.??? That would have worked just as well for the flu as it does for Covid-19. You could have saved up to 62 thousand people had you been vigilant.

FACEPALM. Since it appears refresher courses are needed, I'm quoting myself:

I keep seeing this comparison to the flu . . . but does anyone realize those flu deaths are with ZERO social distancing?

SARS-CoV2 is on track in 2-3 months eclipse total yearly influenza deaths, and that is WITH social distancing.

Let's all let that sink in for a few minutes, OK?

 

[FoverM]

It appears you have been in a coma for the past three weeks. You've already lost this argument. Move on to the next form of minimization and BS. This form is out of date. I am confident that you can improve your game and with practice come up with something new however.

Well, have *you* been shouting every October for a national shutdown over the flu? It happens every year. Tens of thousands die. A shutdown would limit those deaths. Don't spew the usual "vaccine", etc talk because you, of all people, know it's going to happen.

 

[EinSV]

Deaths today were again a little lower than expected, 22,105 down from projected 20,577. This again reduces the projected ultimates to 71k. It also suggests that April 10 could stand as the peak.

It seems that there may be more reporting lags on Sundays. If counts stay below expectation, we'll continue to see the end come sooner. But equally true, if the pace picks up, we expectations could get much worse. The value of a tracking model like this is that it helps us see if we are making progress bending the curve.

To update the tracking of the IHME model, US fatalities dropped from 2035 Friday to 1830 Saturday to 1528 today (per worldometer). As @jhm mentioned, Sunday reports can be unreliable and I suspect that's doubly true for Easter Sunday.

The latest IHME model predicted peak fatalities at 1983 on Friday April 10, with 61,545 total fatalities.
For the time being it appears the two models are converging, with @jhm's "dumb-ass" model at 71K and IHME's at 61,545, and both predicting last Friday (April 10) as the peak.

Hopefully the downward trend continues and today's numbers aren't a reporting anomaly ....

 

[FoverM]

FACEPALM. Since it appears refresher courses are needed, I'm quoting myself:

OK, so, tens of thousands of preventable deaths a year are A-OK with you? Hey, I told them to get vaccinated in the Fall but they didn't so it's OK they died from the flu. Is that what you're saying?

 

[bkp_duke]

Well, have *you* been shouting every October for a national shutdown over the flu? It happens every year. Tens of thousands die. A shutdown would limit those deaths. Don't spew the usual "vaccine", etc talk because you, of all people, know it's going to happen.

Ok, let's spell this out for those that are mentally challenged (I'm talking about YOU - to be CLEAR)

1) we have a vaccine for influenza (it's moderately effective)
2) we practice NO social distancing for influenza what-so-ever
3) herd immunity - anyone that has ever had influenza, or a vaccine for that matter, most likely has at least a small degree of immunity to an new influenza virus. It may not be great, but there is a degree of immunity present in the population. That DOES NOT EXIST for SARS-CoV-2.

Yes, I'm perfectly fine with the deaths we see each year given the above circumstances for Influenza.

This, however, is not a comparable virus to influenza. WE HAVE NO OTHER TOOLS except social distancing.

 

[FoverM]

... Yes, I'm perfectly fine with the deaths we see each year given the above circumstances for Influenza. ...

Great, that's what I want to hear from you. I respect that.

 

[dqd88]

so much for telling states to get their own ventilators...

We have over-ventilated the nation. If you get sick you don't want to go on one, most never recover; they damage the lungs. Cause more damage than good usually. Patients need oxygen not high pressure.

 

[Daniel in SD]

We have over-ventilated the nation. If you get sick you don't want to go on one, most never recover; they damage the lungs. Cause more damage than good usually. Patients need oxygen not high pressure.

I’m no doctor but my understanding is that you start on oxygen, then when your blood oxygen drops you go on a non invasive ventilator and then when your blood oxygen gets low again you get intubated. I think you need oxygen in your blood to be alive. Again, I’m not a doctor.

 

[dqd88]

I’m no doctor but my understanding is that you start on oxygen, then when your blood oxygen drops you go on a non invasive ventilator and then when your blood oxygen gets low again you get intubated. I think you need oxygen in your blood to be alive. Again, I’m not a doctor.

I'm going off this guy. And based on him I should revise my statements. He's saying they need to revise the protocols of how to use the ventilators. They are using too much pressure.

 

[FoverM]

Here's a graph of Daily New Cases for the US as of 04/13 (data from worldometers.info):

The curve is my attempt to apply a Gompertz equation to the data. Overall it looks OK on this linear plot but in a log plot it fails miserably at the low end. The coefficients I used are: a = 950000, b = 19, and c = 0.095 where day 1 is 03/02/2020.

Regardless, we've been less than 10% daily growth for new cases for eight days now. Seems we have reached a peak.

 

[eevee-fan]

Meanwhile at Trump University and FUAXNEWS, no attempt to mislead and control the narratives...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

i.e. Your sister's mother?

No, not in this case, fortunately (I guess). The mother of the wife of my wife’s brother.

 

[eevee-fan]

This was why/when Trump started taking COVID-19 seriously... when someone he knows actually fell victim. Before then, who cares...

Stanley Chera, New York real estate mogul and Trump friend, has died of coronavirus complications - CNN

 

[AZRI11]

I found this to be very interesting. Human Coronavirus Circulation in the United States 2014-2017 - PubMed

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This was why/when Trump started taking COVID-19 seriously... when someone he knows actually fell victim. Before then, who cares...

Stanley Chera, New York real estate mogul and Trump friend, has died of coronavirus complications - CNN

Notably, took 14 days to die after Trump first mentioned it - when it sounded like he was in grave condition. Unfortunately, there are going to be some staggering numbers of lives lost this week, I suspect, unless they have found a bit of magic or technique to help a bunch of people. There have been ~30k cases a day for nearly a week...

 

[renim]

BTW Garmin watches, good ones, can track not just resting heart rate but also blood oxygen levels and respiration rate. Being a dude that runs trail races for over 24 hours non stop I use the 945. Love it way more than the Apple Watch. If you have the means, and you do since we’re all TSLA rich, I highly suggest picking one up.

The watch is in part the reason I have a high degree of confidence I have antibodies in my system.

Antibodies to something anyway.

PubMed Central Image Viewer.

Mice study flu

Pulse-oximetry accurately predicts lung pathology and the immune response during influenza infection

 

[wdolson]

It looks like 81% of Americans have smartphones. Most homeless people seem to have smartphones around here. It's certainly enough to track down clusters if you're ever able to get the numbers down to a reasonable number.

That's probably less than 1% of the population of Germany right now.

If the Typhoid Mary had a smartphone it would be possible once she infected two unconnected people.
This is of course assuming that surface contamination is not a significant source of transmission.
I'm not saying any of this is likely to happen, just that I believe it would work. I think it's more likely than testing everyone in the country every two weeks.

It's very difficult to detect completely asymptomatic cases. Typhoid Mary took years and was only one person. As far as we know asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 are only a few days to a couple of weeks, but there could be potentially thousands of them running around a city with no social distancing.

The only sure way we know to detect asymptomatic cases is to do a throat swab test. And to catch all of them would require everybody in the population to get tested everyday. Or at least everyone who has not tested positive for the antibodies.

On a different note, some interesting articles in Nature published in the last few weeks
COVID-19 Research in Brief: 28 March to 3 April, 2020

The Germans have been finding some interesting information about how it spreads. It appears people are most infectious when it's in their throat early in the infection. It appears the most effective way to spread the virus is through coughing and lots of people are coughing and sneezing this time of year due to pollen allergies.

I'm also skeptical of the models that show a peak around this time. For New York City it appears they are right around peak, but many parts of the US were late to start isolating the population and getting people to comply in many areas is still difficult. The models rely on the disease choking out due to social distancing measures. The places that just locked down recently are likely going to see infection rates grow for the rest of this month at least. Many places had public Easter celebrations and that just set up a COVID banquet.

Then there comes the problem of what happens when social distancing is relaxed. There is evidence it's breaking out again in China. The Chinese claim it's all foreigners coming into the country, but from what I've seen that is only a minor vector at best.

It's highly unlikely herd immunity is much more than a couple of percent in the US at this point. As soon as stay at home orders are relaxed, it will start spreading again.

This month may end with about 70-80K deaths, but this won't be over and we'll probably see outbreaks around the US for most of the rest of the year. Places like Australia, New Zealand, and other places that can effectively close their borders and isolate the few coming in easily will probably see their outbreaks die down and not come back as long as they keep up quarantine. Places with larger populations and connected to other places will have more trouble controlling this.

 

[dqd88]

I have been thinking about and studying the virus. I have some ideas to invent an apparatus that can remove or kill the virus. At a high level, here are some ideas.
* remove the virus through cyclonic air movement. Similar to a Dyson. The aerosol which contains the virus has mass and I wonder if it is in a cyclone of air if it will be pushed outward via centrifugal force, where it can be captured, contained, removed.
* maze of surfaces. picture virus-tainted air moving through a maze of "tunnels" let's say... whereby you maximize the surface area that the air touches. Will it "stick" to the surface area and be removed from the air? Surely some of it would.
* heat - since the virus has an outer lipid layer we should figure out at what exposure point it would "melt" or inactivate the lipid. An apparatus could have an area, a channel, that is heated and any air that passes through will be heated temporarily to the "melting point".
* filter - this is the most obvious and most discussed in public. Though it still isn't clear how effective masks are. Obviously N95's are on the more effective end. But I think this is not the best way to remove a virus. It depends on if the virus is carried via droplets and aerosol. But can it be carried on it's own? It is .1-.2 microns I believe. If the aerosol evaporates, can the virus still travel through air?
* some combination of all of the above

The apparatus would be something you can carry with you, about the shape of a fanny pack, with a breathing tube that you suck the air from.

Can someone pass these ideas to Elon Musk? thanks

 

[renim]

How many do dqd88 want

Plenty of industries have these