Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

2) The number of people in a given country who presently have or already have had the coronavirus is a small, single digit percentage vs. those who believe the virus might be more widespread than than the official numbers, possibly by a factor of 10X or more

I think both are true
500k cases
5 - 10x infections/cases
Therefore 2.5 - 5M infections

330M population, so
2.5/330 -- 5/330 infections past and present which works out to 0.76% - 1.5%

 

[Doggydogworld]

Here's the 3rd episode, where Olsterhome touches on models and how they can mislead us.

Episode 3: Preparing For What's To Come

Olsterhome is a straight shooter, but pretty pessimistic. Korea isn't seeing a second wave, as he claims. Taiwan still has containment. Singapore has a bigger issue, an outbreak concentrated in crowded migrant worker dorms. But I think they'll get it back under control.

We let it get way too out of hand in the US, but containment is still possible.

The app has to send the information to public health authorities. So, if that is the case - how many will voluntarily use the app ?

As I understand it, the info sent to public heatlh authorities (with user permission) is anonymous.

If you knew you would get a pop-up warning that you may have been in contact with an infected person, I think people would want or demand such an app.

Many prefer to live in denial. Or just don't want the hassle (I personally never download apps). Or don't want the government/Google/Apple "spying" on them (you know conspiracy theorists will claim the app builders are lying about anonymity, even if it's open source).

The app framework is a good first step, but implementation and possible enforcement are TBD.

 

[SageBrush]

Hands up who has a watch/band that scans resting heart rate. Ok we now have a population with a viral indicator that arrives before fever.

If only it was that easy

 

[Daniel in SD]

Looking like Trump is going to fire Fauci.

Trump just retweeted conspiracy theorist demanding #FireFauci after Fauci appears on cable news

It's only a matter of time. That is of course a mischaracterization of what he said today and what he said Feb 29th.

Here's what Fauci said on Feb 29th. 6:15

 

[TEG]

Some glimmers of hope in this ? :
Clues to COVID-19 coronavirus's vulnerability emerge from an antibody against SARS: Likely site of vulnerability on SARS-CoV-2 virus determined

Engineered virus might be able to block coronavirus infections, mouse study shows

New coronavirus protein reveals drug target

 

[eevee-fan]

The mouse study should help NYC, I am thinking the pizza rats there helped the spread there.

 

[Yuri_G]

Olsterhome is a straight shooter, but pretty pessimistic. Korea isn't seeing a second wave, as he claims. Taiwan still has containment. Singapore has a bigger issue, an outbreak concentrated in crowded migrant worker dorms. But I think they'll get it back under control.

We let it get way too out of hand in the US, but containment is still possible.

At this point the pessimistic view has been the most realistic view. Olsterhome's suggestion that most of the world is treating this like a hurricane is fairly spot on. The US government is hinging on having this controlled by the end of the month and it's just not going to happen. Italy hit their peak daily cases three weeks ago and they are still at 2/3rds that number everyday, granted with more testing, but they are not on top of contact tracing to contain the virus like South Korea. We are likewise no where near being as thorough as S. Korea and that makes containment almost impossible for our country.

 

[renim]

If only it was that easy

Tackling COVID-19 in the home

'The centre has been in the works for two years but the COVID-19 telehealth plan has been whipped together in just weeks.

The plan is to use mobile devices and wearables to track vital signs for patients, including heart rate, blood oxygen levels and breathing.'

For instance, resting blood rate increase occurs before and during fever, sure caffeine is a great confounder, but at a cluster level it should be an effective 'asymptomatic' warning and also something the individual can also understand.

Surely western australia is not the only place looking into this? For a start their rate of new covid19 is too small. Three fresh COVID-19 cases in WA

 

[Norbert]

If only it was that easy

It is not that easy. On the contrary. It is more difficult than telling everyone to wear a mask or run an app. In the US.

 

[renim]

It is not that easy. On the contrary. It is more difficult than telling everyone to wear a mask or run an app. In the US.

Thats the point, only a small percentage of the population is needed for detecting clusters, and then conventional test and trace can take over.

 

[TEG]

Some paper I noticed from March 2019:
Bat Coronaviruses in China

...it is highly likely that future SARS- or MERS-like coronavirus outbreaks will originate from bats, and there is an increased probability that this will occur in China. Therefore, the investigation of bat coronaviruses becomes an urgent issue for the detection of early warning signs, which in turn minimizes the impact of such future outbreaks in China...

Also, October 2019:
U.S. Government Shutting Down USAID’s Predict Program Investigating Disease Jumps From Animals To Humans

 

[jkoya]

We go get a new TV because the old one lip-syncs worse than Milli Vanilli (try the OLED, it rocks):

Nice TV - Even if you are not a fan, the night scenes in Christopher Nolan's 3 Batman movies in 4K look great on LG OLED TVs. Just re-watched them during the shelter in place..

Happy Easter

 

[deonb]

I know someone (mother-in-law of my brother-in-law)

i.e. Your sister's mother?

 

[phantasms]

BTW Garmin watches, good ones, can track not just resting heart rate but also blood oxygen levels and respiration rate. Being a dude that runs trail races for over 24 hours non stop I use the 945. Love it way more than the Apple Watch. If you have the means, and you do since we’re all TSLA rich, I highly suggest picking one up.

The watch is in part the reason I have a high degree of confidence I have antibodies in my system.

 

[bkp_duke]

Sort of a moral dilemma if the inventor isn't in a position to manufacture enough of a medication ( that is proving effective and it could save many lives) but isn't willing to let someone else infringe during a crisis...
But drug companies tend to have some form of making money for shareholders in their mission statements, so, yeah, "by the book" no matter what...

Chinese Drugmaker Starts Mass-Producing Experimental COVID-19 Drug

Not a moral dilemma. You are making invalid assumptions. Gilead can crank this thing out if and when they choose, but they are not going to do so without more and better data. To be blunt: you don't devote billions of dollars to manufacturer an expensive medication (and it is not as simple or easy to make as some things, although it is not as complicated as "biologics") for something that hasn't been given an FDA "indication".

BTW, your link is WAY out of date. That Chinese drug maker was shut down the very next day by the Chinese government for even saying they were starting production of a patented medication without a license.


Remdesivir, like HCQ, is not without potentially deadly side effects. This is not something we are going to "put in the water" and stop SARS-CoV-2 cold.

IMpatience be damned, let things be properly tested, as they should, and then we will know if this will work. Everyone wants some cure-all so badly they are willing to jump on the tiniest little glimmer of hope.

 

[wdolson]

You don't need 100% compliance. Most people can't survive more than an hour without Facebook and Instagram.
Businesses could also require a phone to enter. Non compliance could end up requiring social distancing anyway.

There are people who don't have smart phones and some people who don't have phones at all.

One thing we should do when the antibody test becomes available is do what Germany plans to do and certify people with the antibody as immune and allow them more freedom of movement.

Ok, scan them, not test them.

Hands up who has a watch/band that scans resting heart rate. Ok we now have a population with a viral indicator that arrives before fever.

Hands up who has a watch/band that scans so2 oxygen saturation. Ok we now have a population with a lung pathology response.

And place thermal scanners are building entrance.

Mask are only useful if they are useful. Preliminary Covid19 Testing has demonstrated that dental face masks are basically useless, so a false sense of protection for the community and the user. Which is dangerous because that encourages a reduction in social distancing.

2 days ago i was explaining to my daughter why a particular mans mask at the shopping centre was cosmetic value only. He had a beard, so airflow inhalation would go straight through there. It had a valve, so airflow exhalation would go straight through there. It was probably a very good mask, could've been used to protect a healthcare worker instead.

We have an expression in Oz,
as useful as tits on a bull.

My watch dates from 1990. It doesn't have any of that new fangled stuff. But the problem with tracking cases with thermal scanners or any other tech is some percentage of cases are completely asymptomatic. Those people are contagious, but don't get sick. What we have is an unknown percentage of the population who are Typhoid Marys.

US Health Weather Map by Kinsa

Fever-tracking smart thermometers may see the spread of COVID-19 in this online map
This map uses smart thermometers to detect potential surges in COVID-19 cases
This company claims its smart thermometer could help detect coronavirus hot spots faster than the CDC
Digital thermometer data may provide insight into COVID-19 surges

Your Sacrifices are Saving Lives

I've been tracking the Kinsa data day by day. It became useless for a week or so because when most of the country went into lockdown flu cases dropped way below expected levels and because flu was more common than COVID-19, it masked COVID cases for a week or two. I find the Observed map most useful right now.

 

[bkp_duke]

Some glimmers of hope in this ? :
Clues to COVID-19 coronavirus's vulnerability emerge from an antibody against SARS: Likely site of vulnerability on SARS-CoV-2 virus determined

Engineered virus might be able to block coronavirus infections, mouse study shows

New coronavirus protein reveals drug target

We call those "Phase 0" studies. They are just theoretical. You have to then take that theory and run in vitro (test tube) tests. Those take months. Then you have to put the potential candidates from the Phase 0 tests into Phase 1 tests (safety and efficacy tests). Those also take months (6+). Once you have safety data and efficacy you can push forward with Phases 2 and 3.

Even under an Emergency declaration, none of this can be compressed down to shorter than 12 months.

 

[Boomer19]

Thanks for posting this survey of what front-line physicians are saying about current COVID-19 anti-virals. What's interesting is that the results parallel the battle we're seeing within this forum regarding HCQ and Remdesivir. One side says HCQ is snake oil unless proven otherwise in a broad, scientifically-conducted study, and the other side says there's enough evidence from the front lines to justify selective treatment until those broad-based, scientifically-conducted tests come out. The main difference is that physicians willing to treat with HCQ in certain circumstances are in the majority in the study, whereas on this thread proponents of careful use of HCQ are a minority.

One cannot conclude HCQ is just snake-oil and silence the discussion because the evidence clearly is anything but one-sided. There's simply too much evidence out there that HCQ MIGHT BE a worthwhile option. Meanwhile, I'm hoping we see more test data on remdesivir because the small recent study suggests it is the most effective anti-viral to use with a patient who is on a ventilator.

my friend ~46yr old is convinced that the hcq was the difference maker in his case, but that’s just one opinion

 

[eevee-fan]

my friend ~46yr old is convinced that the hcq was the difference maker in his case, but that’s just one opinion

Nice car, is that a Subaru? haha

 

[Daniel in SD]

There are people who don't have smart phones and some people who don't have phones at all.

It looks like 81% of Americans have smartphones. Most homeless people seem to have smartphones around here. It's certainly enough to track down clusters if you're ever able to get the numbers down to a reasonable number.

One thing we should do when the antibody test becomes available is do what Germany plans to do and certify people with the antibody as immune and allow them more freedom of movement.

That's probably less than 1% of the population of Germany right now.

My watch dates from 1990. It doesn't have any of that new fangled stuff. But the problem with tracking cases with thermal scanners or any other tech is some percentage of cases are completely asymptomatic. Those people are contagious, but don't get sick. What we have is an unknown percentage of the population who are Typhoid Marys.

If the Typhoid Mary had a smartphone it would be possible once she infected two unconnected people.
This is of course assuming that surface contamination is not a significant source of transmission.
I'm not saying any of this is likely to happen, just that I believe it would work. I think it's more likely than testing everyone in the country every two weeks.