As predicted days ago the amount of active cases did decrease over time and its now 3 days in a row below 40k. Thats very much a positive and promising as it if sustainable gives confirmation that the exponential growth expected by many did not happen but it needs of course to be taken into account that many undetected cases are out there. However take in consideration thats not new.
Those undetected cases are an unknown but I reiterate what I said before that despite some countries not having enough kids to test and many may be infected but don't know, in a situation where this remains like we have it you would have by definition more severe cases getting into hospitals who are detected as infected. Obviously we do have more serious cases and deaths but not as many as you would expect to call it exponential.
Total critical cases are shrinking since Feb 18th. Thats another really positive signal.
Since I watch the numbers developing every day I am pleased to see that South Korea seems to have peaked and now went slightly down. China is low compared to its part (below 200) as well and that in a sustainable manner. Lets all hope SK can establish a china like shrinking as well. Experts call numbers credible so the uncertainty many had should be gone now.
The remaining country with high new infected rates of today almost 600 is Iran a country I expressed my concern about before. However assuming that those numbers are correct which I am not very confident about the cases did not exponentially increase too and that could be a sign for improvement.
A underestimated factor that I tried to explain is that the lessons learned from countries like china are of course used in other countries since a while and improving which should make clear that the likelihood to get the virus under control is increasing not decreasing.
An unknown factor is how the virus developed e.g. getting more or less deadly over time.
A fear scientists said the a TV show lately that us humans have two brains one for rational and one for fear but the fear brain does not know how to do statistics. Thats I believe a very true statement and the fear increases if your country is a hot spot and infections are near. Here in Germany we have cases too even in the town I am living in and I believe you can overcome that fear by keeping a cool had and analyzing the data profoundly.
In terms of the US there are elements that point to a high risk that the virus will spread fast but if we look in the current data of the last days that did not happen and I like to underline the stamens above that even if you have many undetected and more deaths than other countries compared to the detected its not growing exponentially. It would be best though for everybody in the US to get prepared that many more cases will be found over time like with every other flue as well as more deaths.
The worst case scenario did not happen yet and if nothing unexpected appears its hard to imagine a scenario where the current trend is reversed. This is not to call it over at all but to put things into perspective.
For the stock market and the economies the shut down in China will have a negative effect on the economies globally without a doubt but that was short term and even if many let their people work from home now and conferences and events are cancelled this is not a reason to expect a dramatic GDP drop. The fear people have though may lead to a more negative impact for economies.
In Germany we have right now more cases detected than the US (but that may change quickly with a growing case count in the US and larger population) but not a single death ( 2 critical) and the only explanation I have is the healthcare system. No deaths and many cases is a reality in many countries. As the severe cases are more with the older generation in contrast to a normal flue the impact on the economy may be even lower.
The current emergency declaration for CA may sound alarming for many but the US is at the moment with below 200 cases and certainly many more not detected not in the top list like China, South Korea, Italy or Iran at all. Cases will grow without a doubt but if the US follow the WHO recommendations I won't see a reason why they won't be able to get it under control too.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 96,739 Cases and 3,308 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer