Coronavirus

[Causalien]

View attachment 510634 There is a big jump up in the reports for the last 24 hours.

Looks like WHO's team that landed a few days ago finally managed to force China to start releasing the real numbers.

If the interview with the crematorium is true. Only 1/3 of the deaths are from officially tracked hospital data. If you add in the cremation done on bodies shipped directly from residences, the death rate should be ~600 a day.

Hopefully this will render some urgency into western societies so I don't have to walk around people coughing openly without mask on.

 

[Causalien]

Coronavirus are RNA viruses. What are you trying to ask ?


The jump from zoonosis to human would be at the receptor level. Everything else would stay the same.

Disclaimer: My gravitas are fairly weak: physician with standard molecular biology course-work and some molecular diagnostics research from years ago.

An RNA virus that goes through 3 transcriptions before making the cell's mechanism make copies of the virus. Is this new? And is this strange?

I am just trying to verify the information I get from a 3rd party since I do not have expertise in this field.

 

[Singer3000]

Looks like WHO's team that landed a few days ago finally managed to force China to start releasing the real numbers.

If the interview with the crematorium is true. Only 1/3 of the deaths are from officially tracked hospital data. If you add in the cremation done on bodies shipped directly from residences, the death rate should be ~600 a day.

Hopefully this will render some urgency into western societies so I don't have to walk around people coughing openly without mask on.

I am yet to be convinced that this virus warrants any more media attention than seasonal flu, which in 2018 killed 61k and hospitalised 650k. There’s a lot of drama in Singapore because there are now 8 patients in ICU (so far no deaths). But influenza kills around 600 a year in Singapore. There is no day-by-date media update when that happens.

At the beginning I was very worried because the severity of the communist party’s policy response was so unprecedented. I thought this must mean it’s far worse than they’re letting on and it could be a once in a century event.

I now think the exact opposite. That the virus is not anywhere as bad as has been spun, but the Party has to pretend it’s really apocalyptic to absolve themselves from letting the health system in Wuhan collapse.

I am not saying the virus is not dangerous and I am not saying that sadly, many families wont be bereaved as a result. But I am scratching my head why commerce in Asia has essentially shut down over this.

On China’s part I get it. Protect the Party above all else. If the downturn gives an opportunity to nationalise or shut down certain private enterprises hit by a cashflow crunch all the better. But the hysteria elsewhere is in my view yet to be justified.

 

[Causalien]

I am yet to be convinced that this virus warrants any more media attention than seasonal flu, which in 2018 killed 61k and hospitalised 650k. There’s a lot of drama in Singapore because there are now 8 patients in ICU (so far no deaths). But influenza kills around 600 a year in Singapore. There is no day-by-date media update when that happens.

At the beginning I was very worried because the severity of the communist party’s policy response was so unprecedented. I thought this must mean it’s far worse than they’re letting on and it could be a once in a century event.

I now think the exact opposite. That the virus is not anywhere as bad as has been spun, but the Party has to pretend it’s really apocalyptic to absolve themselves from letting the health system in Wuhan collapse.

I am not saying the virus is not dangerous and I am not saying that sadly, many families wont be bereaved as a result. But I am scratching my head why commerce in Asia has essentially shut down over this.

On China’s part I get it. Protect the Party above all else. If the downturn gives an opportunity to nationalise or shut down certain private enterprises hit by a cashflow crunch all the better. But the hysteria elsewhere is in my view yet to be justified.

There does seem to be evidence that Xi is using this chance to clean house and also take out some dissidents by forcing them into quarantine centers and get infected by cross contamination.

I wouldn't relax just yet. If you read all the cases that spread outside of China. It begins around Jan 25~27. The virus takes about 3 to 4 weeks to kill. We are just seeing the first cluster outbreak in UK and now have the Princess cruise ship as a petri dish to see what the critical rate and death rate really is.

How it will play out in asia will probably be:

Relatively unscathed due to immediate over reaction:
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan

Can go either way good system, but just too many tourists from China:
Singapore, Thailand

Will most likely be hard hit due to bad cultural habits or government/structural failure:
Indonesia, India, Phillipines,

The western countries to watch out for:
UK, USA Canada for the high amount of Asian communities
Germany due to high amount of smokers

 

[JBRR]

Coronavirus: Hubei province reports spike in new confirmed cases and deaths after change in diagnostic criteria

• Hubei’s new confirmed cases pegged at 14,840, nearly 10 times more than the previous day, while deaths more than doubled to 242
• Increases come after change in diagnostic criteria

Hubei’s coronavirus cases rise 10-fold after change in diagnostic criteria

Today:

 

[Fact Checking]

Coronavirus: Hubei province reports spike in new confirmed cases and deaths after change in diagnostic criteria

• 
  
  
  • Hubei’s new confirmed cases pegged at 14,840, nearly 10 times more than the previous day, while deaths more than doubled to 242
  • Increases come after change in diagnostic criteria

Hubei’s coronavirus cases rise 10-fold after change in diagnostic criteria

Misleading headline, as usual: under the old diagnostic criteria the number of new Hubei cases actually dropped to around ~1,508, a new post-peak low of new cases.

But they now include cases as well where there was no positive blood test (a CT or x-ray scan is enough), which gave the number of patients a one-time bump of +13,332. These are dominantly not "new" cases, but cases accumulated over the last 2 months but not tested positive (yet).

Source:

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml​

Depending on whether all hospitals in Hubei have already switched to the 'new' reporting method, later today we might either see a significant drop, or more of these pent-up cases.

Shanghai's latest data (which is relevant to GF3 production):

*** 13 February ***
*** 12 February ***
*** 11 February ***
*** 10 February ***
*** 9 February ***
    * 03:33: 1 new case in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 8 February ***
    * 23:51: 6 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
    * 05:59: 5 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 7 February ***
    * 23:53: 4 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
    * 05:50: 8 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 6 February ***

I.e. Shanghai has reported no new case this week.

 

[KarenRei]

There has been a data JUMP...

I am not sure why yet, but you can see the chart just turned up...

Also note, we are at the stage when recovery numbers are increasing.



View attachment 510714

The epidemic center Wuhan city relaxed diagnosis standard. it doesnt require pcr test anymore. a pure CT scan can confirm the desease now. hence the sudden jump in confirmed cases. ccp changed the city/province boss. the new party bosses want to have a clean cut.

This.

People here should check the coronavirus thread before posting "news" if it seems out of the ordinary.

 

[KarenRei]

I bolded it in your post (if I'm understanding the change in counting procedure correctly), 1508:

Hubei Province newly added 14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases)

I think the 13332 figure is a typo. They repeat the 13332 figure for both daily and accumulated cases.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think the 13332 figure is a typo. They repeat the 13332 figure for both daily and accumulated cases.

Because this is a one-time correction of the reporting standard: they have accumulated 13,332 cases that were diagnosed as coronavirus based on CT scan or x-ray images, but for which they don't have a blood test result yet. So these are accumulated totals and a daily increase, for yesterday.

They are probably not wasting blood tests on them to disambiguate these cases, because they were probably all moved into isolation areas after initial diagnosis, where there's a higher chance to catch the infection now, even if they didn't have it before - i.e. they cannot be released right now and must be presumed infected. Also, arguably most of them probably have the virus, so treating them like the other infected diagnosed via blood test makes sense.

The best use of the blood tests is for new patients.

In yesterday's report this increased the "daily" number for Hubei by +13,332.

Under the old reporting standard there were +1,508 new cases yesterday (14,840-13,332), a new post-peak record low of new cases.

But this data is sufficiently well obscured that I expect the western media to run the zombie virus outbreak headlines for the next 24 hours.

 

[JBRR]

Misleading headline, as usual: under the old diagnostic criteria the number of new Hubei cases actually dropped to around ~1,508, a new post-peak low of new cases.

But they now include cases as well where there was no positive blood test (a CT or x-ray scan is enough), which gave the number of patients a one-time bump of +13,332. These are dominantly not "new" cases, but cases accumulated over the last 2 months but not tested positive (yet).

Source:

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml​

Depending on whether all hospitals in Hubei have already switched to the 'new' reporting method, later today we might either see a significant drop, or more of these pent-up cases.

Shanghai's latest data (which is relevant to GF3 production):

*** 13 February ***
*** 12 February ***
*** 11 February ***
*** 10 February ***
*** 9 February ***
    * 03:33: 1 new case in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 8 February ***
    * 23:51: 6 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
    * 05:59: 5 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 7 February ***
    * 23:53: 4 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
    * 05:50: 8 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 6 February ***

I.e. Shanghai has reported no new case this week.

It's not clear how far back these 14k cases are pulled from - 2 months is assuming that they have reclassified all previous diagnoses.

 

[jerry33]

Coronavirus: Hubei province reports spike in new confirmed cases and deaths after change in diagnostic criteria

• 
  
  
  • Hubei’s new confirmed cases pegged at 14,840, nearly 10 times more than the previous day, while deaths more than doubled to 242
  • Increases come after change in diagnostic criteria

Hubei’s coronavirus cases rise 10-fold after change in diagnostic criteria

What a click-bait headline.

 

[KarenRei]

What's happening to the premarket discount? :Þ

Come on everyone. CORONAVIRUS DOOM! MODEL X BOLT RECALL! Don't give up on the fear!**

** - Until about half an hour into trading, at least

 

[heltok]

Japan had a bad day today, besides all the numerous cases on the unfortunate ship, they seem to have local transmission of the virus in both Tokyo and Osaka:

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

Japan has reported 4 new cases of coronavirus in the past few hours. In all 4 cases it's not clear how they were infected.

The taxi driver is in Tokyo
The doctor in 50s is in Wakayama
The young male in 20s is in Chiba, also a taxi driver
The deceased old grandma case is in Kanagawa
and the early case of the tour bus driver is in Nara

Expect a lot of new cases in Japan and possible industry(Panasonic is relevant for Tesla) shutdowns. It could also be an indication of what is to come for other countries such as Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia etc and even the rest of the world.

Just a public note, if you want to improve your odds of not having a critial case of pnemonia if you get infected, sleeping 7-9h/night is a good and free remedy: (start watching at 2min)

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I am yet to be convinced that this virus warrants any more media attention than seasonal flu, which in 2018 killed 61k and hospitalised 650k. There’s a lot of drama in Singapore because there are now 8 patients in ICU (so far no deaths). But influenza kills around 600 a year in Singapore. There is no day-by-date media update when that happens.

At the beginning I was very worried because the severity of the communist party’s policy response was so unprecedented. I thought this must mean it’s far worse than they’re letting on and it could be a once in a century event.

I now think the exact opposite. That the virus is not anywhere as bad as has been spun, but the Party has to pretend it’s really apocalyptic to absolve themselves from letting the health system in Wuhan collapse.

I am not saying the virus is not dangerous and I am not saying that sadly, many families wont be bereaved as a result. But I am scratching my head why commerce in Asia has essentially shut down over this.

On China’s part I get it. Protect the Party above all else. If the downturn gives an opportunity to nationalise or shut down certain private enterprises hit by a cashflow crunch all the better. But the hysteria elsewhere is in my view yet to be justified.

It's a new, apparently highly contagious virus with an unknown, but apparently high death rate, a long period of contagion, no vaccine, and no well-established treatment protocol.

Seasonal flu is something we _have_ to accept. We have effective, best-guess vaccines, treatments are well known, the death rate is low and deaths come from vulnerable populations.

It's not an hysterical reaction, it's trying to make it something we _don't_ have to accept. So little travel is necessary thanks to modern communications that we can easily afford to shut down travel from the center of infection.

 

[Singer3000]

It's a new, apparently highly contagious virus with an unknown, but apparently high death rate, a long period of contagion, no vaccine, and no well-established treatment protocol.

Seasonal flu is something we _have_ to accept. We have effective, best-guess vaccines, treatments are well known, the death rate is low and deaths come from vulnerable populations.

It's not an hysterical reaction, it's trying to make it something we _don't_ have to accept. So little travel is necessary thanks to modern communications that we can easily afford to shut down travel from the center of infection.

That’s your subjective assessment. I know senior medical professionals who take quite a different view. Personally I don’t think we can “easily afford to shut down” everything that has been. The impact on every day life and commerce in Asia as a whole is quite remarkable.

I now know of companies in multiple industries that are running A and B teams so 50% of staff are always at home. I know others for whom business is so bad that they have ordered holidays to everyone until further notice. Meanwhile the malls are empty.

Recessions do not come without a cost in lives, be it directly or the opportunity cost of failing to lift people out of poverty faster.

 

[Ulmo]

Misleading headline, as usual: under the old diagnostic criteria the number of new Hubei cases actually dropped to around ~1,508, a new post-peak low of new cases.

But they now include cases as well where there was no positive blood test (a CT or x-ray scan is enough), which gave the number of patients a one-time bump of +13,332. These are dominantly not "new" cases, but cases accumulated over the last 2 months but not tested positive (yet).

Source:

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml​

Depending on whether all hospitals in Hubei have already switched to the 'new' reporting method, later today we might either see a significant drop, or more of these pent-up cases.

Shanghai's latest data (which is relevant to GF3 production):

*** 13 February ***
*** 12 February ***
*** 11 February ***
*** 10 February ***
*** 9 February ***
    * 03:33: 1 new case in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 8 February ***
    * 23:51: 6 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
    * 05:59: 5 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 7 February ***
    * 23:53: 4 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
    * 05:50: 8 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 6 February ***

I.e. Shanghai has reported no new case this week.

I think you're mixing two sources of numbers: one which is underinflated, and another which is not underinflated. At some point, we could get even more styles of numbers (counted differently, at different points, with different definitions, with coverups, and overinflation).

 

[JBRR]

Misleading headline, as usual: under the old diagnostic criteria the number of new Hubei cases actually dropped to around ~1,508, a new post-peak low of new cases.

But they now include cases as well where there was no positive blood test (a CT or x-ray scan is enough), which gave the number of patients a one-time bump of +13,332. These are dominantly not "new" cases, but cases accumulated over the last 2 months but not tested positive (yet).

Source:

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml​

Depending on whether all hospitals in Hubei have already switched to the 'new' reporting method, later today we might either see a significant drop, or more of these pent-up cases.

Shanghai's latest data (which is relevant to GF3 production):

*** 13 February ***
*** 12 February ***
*** 11 February ***
*** 10 February ***
*** 9 February ***
    * 03:33: 1 new case in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 8 February ***
    * 23:51: 6 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
    * 05:59: 5 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 7 February ***
    * 23:53: 4 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
    * 05:50: 8 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
*** 6 February ***

I.e. Shanghai has reported no new case this week.

Hedgeye on Twitter

"If the true mortality rate is only 1% and total Coronavirus deaths are 1,370, then total resolved infected cases are actually around 137,000 And then keep in mind that all resolved cases must have first become infected 3 weeks ago."

 

[KarenRei]

So, in terms of graphing, we're still dealing with the consequences of converting to the new measurement system. A new line has been added above the old one for the new measurement system Today's Hubei data is "4,823 new cases of new coronary pneumonia (including 3,095 clinically diagnosed cases)", compared to yesterday's "14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases) "

I have trouble taking that huge dropoff seriously, and think that it's an artifact of switching to the new system. For now, I think I'll trim out yesterday as a spurious datapoint related to the switchover, unless future datapoints lend a case to restoring it.

As always, international cases can be expected to surge later this evening when the new Diamond Princess numbers come in, since they're the lion's share of new international cases these days (usually several dozen vs. 5-15 or so). Non-Hubei China consolidated figures also tend to arrive late, and so lag behind a day on these graphs.

 

[elasalle]

If the virus is mainly airbourne and doesn't like higher temp, light and humidity, then March/April weather will help ...

 

[Wenche]

Today’s data.