Coronavirus

[KarenRei]

Diamond Princess numbers in. Really, since that ship is distorting the "global" figures, I've decided to break it off into its own category. It makes the data much more useful that way.

Obviously, the 14 Feb figures (which were actually reported in the morning of 15 Feb, and it's kind of hard to decide which day to assign them to) aren't all from one day, since no cases were reported the previous day; this is an accumulation of 2+ days worth of cases.

 

[Causalien]

The UK cases are confirming the outcome in Germany.

If you are young, relatively healthy and don't smoke. You should be fine. This virus is very similar to SARS. In that air pollution and smoking excabertates the disease. What's different is that it can survive warm weather and is more infectious.

 

[Causalien]

Add to the list of asian countries that will be devastated by the corona virus. Cambodia. Assuming heat isn't an effective countermeasure to the virus.

I remember my times in Cambodia. So many people got infected with malaria. Malarone was traded like currency between travellers. Then you get to Vietnam and many escaped from cambodia to vietnam to get treated for malaria.

 

[KarenRei]

Add to the list of asian countries that will be devastated by the corona virus. Cambodia. Assuming heat isn't an effective countermeasure to the virus.

I remember my times in Cambodia. So many people got infected with malaria. Malarone was traded like currency between travellers. Then you get to Vietnam and many escaped from cambodia to vietnam to get treated for malaria.

Coronaviruses, along with rhinoviruses and influenzaviruses (the main causes of cold/flu symptoms), are usually sensitive to heat and sunlight. It's one of the reasons (although not the only one) that they tend to be seasonal.

It's a really tough trick for such a small "organism" to survive outside the body; they have no thick defensive layers and have a massive surface area-to-volume ratio - and with no metabolism, they have no active repair mechanism. Some viruses have learned to last long times outside the body (such as smallpox, by hiding inside shed scab tissue), but most only last from a few hours to several days. And even though they technically "can" survive that long, the longer they're outside the body, the less virulent they get, and the less likely they are to actually infect someone. Rhinovirus virulence outside the body actually starts to decline after only a few minutes.

 

[EVCollies]

I wonder if the Westerdam will be a super spreading event?

 

[KarenRei]

Hubei numbers are in.

 

[KarenRei]

New data updates.

 

[DanCar]

AFP news agency on Twitter . 20.5% of those that tested positive on princess cruise have no symptoms. Likely due to early onset.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Thank you. It is always better to point out errors in the work rather than attack the author based on something unrelated.

That site has been a grotesque purveyor of misinformation for years. There's really nothing that needs to be said or shown at this point. If it's found there, it should be ignored. It's kind of like referencing something Spiegel says about Tesla. There's a chance it might be right, but almost never and only by accident.

 

[heltok]

I wonder if the Westerdam will be a super spreading event?

It is a bit worrying when we have leaders not taking this serious, shaking the hand over every passenger on that ship.
Jordan on Twitter

 

[Beltsbear]

It is a bit worrying when we have leaders not taking this serious, shaking the hand over every passenger on that ship.
Jordan on Twitter

That could also spread it between passengers too.

 

[SageBrush]

AFP news agency on Twitter . 20.5% of those that tested positive on princess cruise have no symptoms. Likely due to early onset.

Spectrum of clinical disease; Asymptomatic disease is part and parcel of every illness

 

[SageBrush]

It is a bit worrying when we have leaders not taking this serious, shaking the hand over every passenger on that ship.
Jordan on Twitter

Don't be paranoid, just learn and use good hand washing habits

 

[KarenRei]

AFP news agency on Twitter . 20.5% of those that tested positive on princess cruise have no symptoms. Likely due to early onset.

Note that tested does not mean "transmitting to people". They've now apparently tested a third of the entire ship. Looks like they're trying to get everyone tested now.

 

[SageBrush]

Note that tested does not mean "transmitting to people".

Similarly, test+ does not necessarily mean infectious; and even if infectious, the R0 has a wide spectrum. It appears to be generally true for CoVid-19 that the more severe the clinical disease the more infectious the person.

 

[DanCar]

Spectrum of clinical disease; Asymptomatic disease is part and parcel of every illness

Seems you are having trouble reading. Let me help you. "Likely due to early onset" implies the above. What is it that you are disagreeing about?

 

[SageBrush]

Seems you are having trouble reading. Let me help you. "Likely due to early onset" implies the above. What is it that you are disagreeing about?

You do not understand.

You think the asymptomatic, positive cases are early in their clinical course.
I am telling you that it will be common to find test+ people that are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic throughout their entire disease course.

Such is the biology of disease, an area in which I practiced my entire career. The popular media does not distinguish between disease and illness, and barely recognizes the very important spectrum of illness that each disease can cause, and its associated variable infectivity.

 

[DanCar]

...

Yes, that is also commonly stated in the news. Remind me to state all the obvious things for the disagreeable people in this forum.

 

[DanCar]

Amesh Adalja on Twitter Quote:
Not sure how this claim can be made when mild cases — which are the majority — aren’t being systemically tested

 

[KarenRei]

Hubei in. They've stopped reporting cases using the old diagnostic criteria and are now only reporting the new criteria. :Þ Oh well, I'm glad that they gave the info for both for several days.