Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

FWIW
Australia is explicity not pursuing a hammer strategy, their PM was making that clear 2nd April.

Point is, suppression requires duration not shock. Shock (hammer) without duration is just delaying the 'big one' or to be more precise, the more intense the hammer, the less sustainable it is, therefore a gentler but more sustainable supression is more effective than a hammer strategy. Of course Reff needs to sustain below 1.

Note particularly well, the prime minister states (at that point in time late march/ early april) that he seems to be only leader saying this requires a sustainable action, not short term fix.

Also note now, how other countries are coming around to view it that way.

I'm confused. What unsustainable measures is the United States taking that Australia did not do?
Australia was able to suppress the virus because they are doing test and trace. We have way too many cases and not enough testing to do that yet. It may be that we're completely screwed.
If this isn't a hammer I don't know what is. I don't think there will even be a dance. I think Australia is going to achieve complete eradication.

 

[RobStark]

UV! They mimic sunlight.
Just in case it wasn't obvious, I was joking. Opening any indoor public space right now is not a good idea.

Los Angeles fine cuisine will roll out nation wide?

 

[dhrivnak]

here is another one with completely opposite statements about testing from our federal government on the same day:

I have tried through two doctors and the FDA trial to get a test with no luck. I will believe testing when I get a call back.

 

[MXLRplus]

I have tried through two doctors and the FDA trial to get a test with no luck. I will believe testing when I get a call back.

Move to Fisher Island! Fisher Island, the richest ZIP code in America with an average income of $2.2 million, has obtained coronavirus antibody tests for all 800 families and staff who live there because it's 'what residents wanted'

Fisher Island in Florida was also given $2 million for Covid relief under the last SBA bill. They have more than enough C19 tests for their 800 millionaire residents.

Being rich does have it's rewards. Did you think they were going to be giving billions to poor people or even test them?

BTW - I saw this coming way ahead time. I didn't even bother submitting a SBA app. I wouldn't want Fisher Islanders to run out of caviar to feed their dogs.

 

[Norbert]

It almost seems like you want the disease to be more deadly than it is.

Antibody test results which suggest a not-so-extremely-low IFR don't make the disease more deadly, because they suggest fewer are infected. They only make the theoretical impact of herd immunity more deadly.

 

[deonb]

median time till death from exposure exceeds median time to seroconversion from exposure by at least 10 days.

Thanks. Do you by any chance have a good source handy for that?

 

[EVNow]

It's almost as if he has no idea what he's doing.

Its a delicate balance. You need to incite your base - but not kill them.

 

[EVNow]

If this isn't a hammer I don't know what is. I don't think there will even be a dance. I think Australia is going to achieve complete eradication.

Until they open travel again …

One of the mistakes of Singapore was that they didn't ban travel quickly.

 

[dfwatt]

Few people know about my tech startup company, SolaBag. We work in the obscur intersection of photovoltaics and colon therapeutics. We think if we could secure a government grant, we could develop a really powerful sunlight enema. We're really close to a market ready breakthrough. Critics say solar power can't work where the sun don't shine, but we're ready to prove them wrong. So, Mr President Trump, we know you're working hard to open the economy, battling blockage and discomfort, democrats and the nasty press. At SolaBag, we're here to wash that all away with the power of UV light and help you get things moving in the USA again.

It's amazing to see the can-do spirit of Market capitalism at work here at TMC. You are obviously inspired by the same Muse that gave me the idea for my product Moron Spray. The conjoined effects of these radical products could constitute a remarkable breakthrough. I hose them down and you blow Sunshine up there a$$es. It could be enough to dissolve even the current record levels of idiocy. Hopefully before anyone takes Trump literally and starts injecting themselves with Lysol, household bleach, Tide, Etc

 

[davepsilon]

Oh look, new data out of NY that is suggesting an overall fatality rate of around 0.5%, just like I said not too long ago that people disagreed with.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

(this number is still bad, but the people suggesting 2% or higher aren’t as smart as they think they are)

0.5% IFR is right on target with what the professionals have been estimating since February. Here’s an excerpt from WHO’s situation report (#30) for Feb 19

the Infection Fatality Ratio can be calculated. This represents the fraction of all infections (both diagnosed and undiagnosed) that result in death. Based on these available analyses, current IFR estimates (references 10,11,12) range from 0.3% to 1%.

2% IFR isn’t a crazy guess. It’s reasonable if you assume fewer unreported cases which has been less certain due to lack of good antibody testing. What’s unreasonable and has been since late Feb is flu-like IFR. The best number I’ve seen for the scary H1N1 is an IFR of 0.02! 0.5 vs 2.0% the public health measures that are worthwhile should be about the same.

 

[heltok]

Just to save people a click.


2.7 million / 19.45 Million (population) = 13.9%
15,500 / 2.7 Million = 0.57%
So they used a slightly lower death count than the current death count.
I have no idea whether that make @defc0n right or @SageBrush right.
Personally I suspect the 13.9% may be a little high (sample bias), 15.5k is definitely low, and infection to death is about the same as infection to measurable IgG antibodies (which makes the math easy).

Also remember this one:

View attachment 534701
25,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis

 

[Daniel in SD]

Until they open travel again …

One of the mistakes of Singapore was that they didn't ban travel quickly.

Is there really a chance that Australia will open its borders any time soon?
Right now citizens returning to Australia have to quarantine for 14 days at an "accommodation facility". That doesn't sound like it would be very popular with tourists or business travellers. I'm not sure why that will change until the virus is suppressed sufficiently in other countries or there is a vaccine. Maybe they could shorten the quarantine if they become confident enough in their testing.
It will be interesting if some European countries also manage to eradicate the virus and close their borders.

 

[phantasms]

Don't worry we're good now. Trump figured it out. Injection of disinfectants. It's so simple, so obvious.

 

[Daniel in SD]

0.5% IFR is right on target with what the professionals have been estimating since February. Here’s an excerpt from WHO’s situation report (#30) for Feb 19

Or the Imperial College paper from March 13th. "Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease"

Findings: We estimate the mean duration from onset-of-symptoms to death to be 17.8 days (95% credible interval, crI 16.9–19.2 days) and from onset-of-symptoms to hospital discharge to be 22.6 days (95% crI 21.1-24.4 days). We estimate a crude CFR of 3.67% (95% crI 3.56%-3.80%) in cases from mainland China. Adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment of milder cases in Wuhan relative to the rest of China, we obtain a best estimate of the CFR in China of 1.38% (95% crI 1.23%- 1.53%) with substantially higher values in older ages. Our estimate of the CFR from international cases stratified by age (under 60 / 60 and above) are consistent with these estimates from China. We obtain an overall IFR estimate for China of 0.66% (0.39%-1.33%), again with an increasing profile with age.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf

 

[Norbert]

Trevor Bedford thinks the numbers look ok. That gives an IFR of 1%.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

1% or more:

"IFR of ~1% (or more) in NYC may differ from IFR in other locations."

 

[EVNow]

Oh look, new data out of NY that is suggesting an overall fatality rate of around 0.5%, just like I said not too long ago that people disagreed with.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

(this number is still bad, but the people suggesting 2% or higher aren’t as smart as they think they are)

From Mar-08 ?

Anyway, if we think there are 1,000 cases in Seattle area and fatality rate is about 0.5% - we'd expect 5 deaths. And there have been 19-16 = 3 deaths in WA not connected with LifeCenter (?).

 

[Chenkers]

Is there really a chance that Australia will open its borders any time soon?
Right now citizens returning to Australia have to quarantine for 14 days at an "accommodation facility". That doesn't sound like it would be very popular with tourists or business travellers. I'm not sure why that will change until the virus is suppressed sufficiently in other countries or there is a vaccine. Maybe they could shorten the quarantine if they become confident enough in their testing.
It will be interesting if some European countries also manage to eradicate the virus and close their borders.

Current talk is that Australia is likely to open its border up to travel to and from New Zealnad in the first instance. With both countries following a similar path we could see the virus almost eliminated in the next few months. Travellers from other countires are likely to still require quarantine measures for now or until there is an effective treatment or vaccine.

 

[Yuri_G]

The US just passed 50k deaths on the Worldometer. I think we can safely say that the IHME model is entirely unrealistic and the toll will be far greater. I hope they can adapt to what mitigation measures are being mandated in each state to come up with a more accurate prediction.

 

[Robertj]

we are trying the same as Aussie

 

[Norbert]

I think 1.98% was Germany's naive CFR country wide a short time ago. It is now almost 2.3%. It may easily go as high as 3.5% to 4% or even more.

At the time, it may have sounded like a stretch. Germany's naive CFR is now, 12 days later, at 3.64% (according to worldometers).