Coronavirus

[EVNow]

we already had a test case last month. It’s called giga Shanghai. It worked

US <> China.

 

[azaz]

Musk starts his day by linking to a horrible The Hill opinion piece which starts by claiming IFR is 0.1 or 0.2. Just off by at least 2x. and also replies to someone on Twitter claiming the death toll is fake basically. The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

his likes are an even scarier place. Liking stupid libertarian conspiracy theory memes and project veritable videos and what not.

frankly Musk should say it with his chest and stop obfuscating behind calling the government fascist or whatever. he should just admit he still is clinging to his horribly wrong predictions that c19 isn’t that bad, the true ifr is not more than 0.2 and that the death tolls are inflated by medical greed. Say it with his chest so everyone can clown him for his ignorant and hubris instead of going on deranged Internet forum esque libertarian rants.

 

[EVNow]

Goal is to get to China’s numbers? Anyone who thinks China is being remotely honest with their numbers is a fool.

Rest of the world : Anyone who thinks Trump is being remotely honest with the numbers is a fool.

ps : We should distinguish between accuracy of numbers and deliberate falsification. I don't think neither China nor CDC is deliberately falsifying numbers. Nor are some of the countries regularly dismissed here because they are "3rd world" countries. Ofcourse when the pandemic is in full swing, like in Wuhan or NY or Iran or Italy, testing everyone and getting accurate numbers is not the first priority. Suppression of the virus is the only priority. So, confirmed cases or fatality counts are not going to be accurate. Duh.

 

[Feathermerchan]

What about this?
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article242348891.html

At least 40 percent of COVID-19 deaths in California are from eldercare homes, state reveals

Shouldn't we be concentrating on nursing homes?

 

[FoverM]

Can we trust the data at covidtracking.com? I ask because I happened to look at my latest results showing the number of days each state has been below 10% case growth. The last time I looked, 04/26, MA was at zero days because it had a spike that day. When I looked at my latest results, through 04/29, MA shows 17 days. Impossible! I loaded my ma.csv file to see what's going on. The daily cases looks fairly normal now, with a weekly oscillation on an epidemic curve. But daily deaths are now screwed up:

Anyone else see a problem with this data?

 

[EVNow]

In general what you are saying will work, but we actually have to have it in place before opening up. They need to get to it, rather than having Elon raging on Twitter and on conference calls about fascism.

Yes - Musk is being Musk. Most Bay area tech leaders are libertarian. My opinion of libertarians is not fit for TMC

I think if given correct guidelines by the state, Tesla will try its best to make sure there is no Covid breakout in the factory. It is just too expensive for them to have a breakout.

Because of GF3, I think factory folks in Fremont should already have an idea of what needs to be done and must be actively making arrangements. Afterall they have nothing else to do now. They also called some people to prepare the factory for reopening.

My worry is not highly visible and media scrutinized places like Fremont - but thousands of small places that will open and won't do much to contain the virus. Is the state ready to test and track ? That remains the big question.

 

[dfwatt]

Sadly she already has an electric vehicle it would replace. So sustainable transportation secured.

This is good news though. It'll save me a lot of money - other EVs are a lot cheaper than Teslas.

The bad news is she also wants me to get rid of my Model 3. She says she can't support this insanity.

Uh-oh. That sounds serious indeed. Perhaps you'll have to change your nom de plume to AlanModel3ForLife. Then she won't be able to pressure you.

 

[MXLRplus]

What about this?
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article242348891.html

At least 40 percent of COVID-19 deaths in California are from eldercare homes, state reveals

Shouldn't we be concentrating on nursing homes?

This has been known for over 2 months now by the State of California and others. So far the response has been limited. Few residents at nursing homes or their employees are campaign donors hence very little PPE availability or quarantine of staff members and visitors. These deaths are great for campaign purposes with no downside to it.

While large metro areas are now hoarding PPE beyond levels required for 2020, nursing homes are woefully undersupplied. The paycheck incentive program has made it cheaper for NH staff to stay home from work. We had a local area nursing home's staff abandon the residents.

We are putting on a big show like we always do in a crisis. Spend huge amounts in taxes, give to the cronies, scream at the opposition, then go to Bermuda in your campaign donor's Gulfstream. Or SIP by eating $1/oz ice cream out of your custom made $24k refrigerator on your "grape farm".

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Musk starts his day by linking to a horrible The Hill opinion piece which starts by claiming IFR is 0.1 or 0.2. Just off by at least 2x.

From the outset it was pretty clear IFR would land around .2% once all the cases were truly counted. Take a look at the first page of this thread, that's precisely the feedback from early days in China. What's the problem? In what way is stating the statistically obvious "scary"?

Perhaps the folks posting here 24/7 for two months have funneled themselves into a doomsday vortex and having a tough time escaping the swirling thoughts of near certain demise?

Deaths up sharply today in PA on the addition of "suspected cases". It'll be interesting to see how the data looks when smoothed out in a few days. Jersey state parks reopen on Saturday morning.....that might get interesting. We'll see how everyone behaves this time around.

 

[azaz]

The Ifr is not 0.2. It is at least double that. You are a fool to not be taken seriously if you are still pushing that number around.

 

[EVNow]

From the outset it was pretty clear IFR would land around .2% once all the cases were truly counted.

Why don't you atleast attempt to give some justification for numbers you use ?

An empirical estimate of the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 from the first Italian outbreak

Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old.​

 

[ZeApelido]

From the outset it was pretty clear IFR would land around .2% once all the cases were truly counted. Take a look at the first page of this thread, that's precisely the feedback from early days in China. What's the problem? In what way is stating the statistically obvious "scary"?

Perhaps the folks posting here 24/7 for two months have funneled themselves into a doomsday vortex and having a tough time escaping the swirling thoughts of near certain demise?

Deaths up sharply today in PA on the addition of "suspected cases". It'll be interesting to see how the data looks when smoothed out in a few days. Jersey state parks reopen on Saturday morning.....that might get interesting. We'll see how everyone behaves this time around.

Didn't 0.2% of NYC already die from COVID?

 

[deonb]

The Ifr is not 0.2. It is at least double that. You are a fool to not be taken seriously if you are still pushing that number around.

It's at least 4 times that.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Why don't you atleast attempt to give some justification for numbers you use ?

An empirical estimate of the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 from the first Italian outbreak

Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old.​

You're gonna point to Italy? Land of 94 year old grandmas and zero testing? How would we even get a denominator for Italy? On average, globally....we should see an IFR around .2% once we can test for a proper denominator.

May is practically here, there's no need to speculate anymore since we'll have real numbers in a month.

Side question.....is anyone tracking flu deaths for 2020? How many flu deaths are mixed into the "suspected covid" deaths from March/April?

 

[Remus]

Yeah, everyone gets a free pass as long as they survive. So, the mystery continues about why Elon has butt-hurt. Looks like he's getting his 1.5million plus shares with option to buy at $350 or whatever so not sure what his problem is.

It's like he really believes the nonsense he's spouting. Now he's trumpeting about the hospitals being half empty and bragging about inadvertently conducting a DDoS attack. Good times. I mean, it's a valid point that elective procedures need to be seriously pondered by hospitals, and some method of creating separation and allowing them to go forward should be put together, but that takes time. And instant testing! Maybe later he'll claim that that's what he was really upset about, but I think we can all see through that...

It's like he's going down the list of silly arguments that have been put up on Twitter about why we have to go back to work, and falling for every one of them. Mind-boggling! Meanwhile, the obviously correct answer is staring him right in the face...

This is really what scares me the most. We are all too familiar with the way tslaq and climate change deniers argue for their cases: cherry picking the most obscure stuff, blowing it out of proportion and ignoring the overwhelming evidence countering their beliefs.

I can't believe that one day I saw Elon using the same stupid argument. I guess I worship Elon too much in the past. I still think Tesla has a great future. But I
can't trust him enough to put almost all of my money there anymore. Maybe it's wise to treat it as only one of the promising bets, but not the sure thing.

 

[dfwatt]

Is COVID-19 not just a respiratory disease, but also (or mainly) an endothelial disease?
Robin

This guy's stuff is superb. I was aware in a vague general sort of way that Angiotensin had some general impact on mitochondrial physiology and the dynamics of oxidative stress vs protective mechanisms against it but this helps explain that in much more detail. There's a lot of evidence that blocking Angiotensin signals may constitute a general anti-aging strategy at least in relationship to vascular remodeling. There's some evidence for example that polyphenols in pomegranate juice function as Angiotensin signal inhibitors, both via inhibition of the converting enzyme but also in terms of effects downstream on oxidative stress.

It does raise some interesting questions about potential therapeutic effects of a host of compounds (like quercetin, pterostilbene, and NAD + precursors) that impact this physiology in a more protective direction and whether that might be potentially compensatory, or whether the disinhibition of the Angiotensin signal particularly one conjoined with the oxidative burst delivered by our own neutrophils to endothelial and other cells that harbor the virus so overwhelms those protective mechanisms that propping them up from the other side so to speak is not possible.

One of the things that becomes clear if you take a giant step back from what he's talking about is that oxidative stress and inflammation are conjoined in so many complex ways. Oxidative stress is both a mechanism of inflammation and has positive feedback in terms of recruiting inflammatory cells to a region of high oxidative stress. It's pretty clear that Health requires both of these processies to be constrained and contained and only activated in a very circumscribed and context-dependent fashion, and then quickly regulated. An additional Wrinkle In complexity is that oxidative stress has both negative as well as signaling / positive impacts. When it operates as a signal it may recruit protective mechanisms that are good for us. Inflammation on the other hand that is allowed to run amok so to speak and where it reaches high levels in any organ system is invariably disastrous for that organ system in part through oxidative attack on our own tissues

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hospitals ARE half empty. My brother's an OR nurse and has worked 12, 16, and 12 hours the last three weeks. Philly hasn't been hit too hard, but we're also 90 mins from Manhattan and closer to North Jersey.

Plenty of doctors posting here. Ask them if hospitals are half empty.

Elon is speaking like a raving lunatic, but the things he's saying are accurate.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Goal is to get to China’s numbers? Anyone who thinks China is being remotely honest with their numbers is a fool.

China wasn't able to cover up what happened in Wuhan. How could they possibly cover it up if the virus was spreading in Shanghai?

 

[MXLRplus]

This is really what scares me the most. We are all too familiar with the way tslaq and climate change deniers argue for their cases: cherry picking the most obscure stuff, blowing it out of proportion and ignoring the overwhelming evidence countering their beliefs.

I can't believe that one day I saw Elon using the same stupid argument. I guess I worship Elon too much in the past. I still think Tesla has a great future. But I
can't trust him enough to put almost all of my money there anymore. Maybe it's wise to treat it as only one of the promising bets, but not the sure thing.

Today's climate change advocates believe in negative population growth just like they did in the 1960's; same people different argument. So why aren't you advocating mass injections of pure SARS-CoV-2?

I know the answer. The # of deaths from starvation in 2020 is going to double from the 2019 numbers if the WHO/UN is to be believed. The WHO is God, correct? These deaths require the large food exporters such as US, Germany, UK, France to stay closed as long as possible. The virus by itself will not kill enough people, especially since the people dying from C19 and starvation are from the same economic level which is not the high CO2 emitters.

But don't take my word for, look it up using your own biases.

 

[dfwatt]

No, that is confusing the analogy. It is an imperfect one (confuses velocity, potential energy, etc.). The ground is zero new cases. When you reach the top of the curve, max cases per day, you’ve flattened it.

The whole point of flattening the curve was poorly communicated. It had two purposes - one was to minimize the hospital loading (wasn’t a problem for most places because action was taken plenty soon), but the *second* was to get cases to a manageable level to address via contact tracing, ASAP.

Three purposes. 1 - prevent busting of Hospital/medical system capacity which seriously inflates your case fatality rate by several orders of magnitude, 2- reduce number of cases and R subscript value so that contact tracing becomes feasible and then this has further negative feedback effects on R subscript which allows your case rate to at least approach the asymptote of zero new cases; 3 - buy time so that you can improve your treatment algorithms and hopefully get treatment(s) that alters lethality significantly and perhaps even prevents hospitalisation, while allowing for progress towards creation of an effective vaccine.