Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

An easy answer to that is the lack of unprecedented global lockdowns to stop or slow those diseases in the past. Yet despite this, COVID is still rivaling and currently in the process of passing all the comparisons you have cited. And, of course, it is not going away.

Hard to see why you refuse to acknowledge that this would be a much bigger deal right now if we had not locked down, maybe by an order of magnitude.

There's no scientific basis for this to have been an order of magnitude(if you're referring to 10x) worse than now. That's physically impossible based on any interpretation of the data we have. This wouldn't have been a much "bigger deal" had we not locked down, it would have just overwhelmed our hospitals. Perhaps 2x 80k or maybe a bit more if we had simply gone with masks, social distancing where at all possible, and isolation of at risk population. Hell keeping the economy/schools open, but not treating nursing homes as a repository for positive cases might have kept us under 80k total.

Of course we'll find all this out in 3 or 4 months when the data is more clear. My original swine flu point was that we've interpreted early datasets in this fashion before and been off on infection spread....generally by far far more than an order of magnitude. And this virus spreads easier than swine flue.

Just so we're on the same page....I'm supposed to imagine the apocalypse we'd be dealing with if we didn't keep people limited to grocery shopping, getting food deliveries from 17 year olds twice a day, visiting grandma on Mothers Day, etc. But I'm not supposed to imagine what swine flu would have done if the 65+ population weren't mostly immune due to built up H1N1 flu shots? Dear lord we would have lost entire swaths of nursing homes if we hadn't gotten lucky, literally millions of seniors. Swine flu was infinitely more powerful and deadly than covid19, that's how it killed so many healthy children.

 

[linux-works]

My understanding is that if you can see the blue, they are just grow lights (UVA and UVB). UVC is needed to kill CV-19, and you can't use UVC in the presence of people.

you can see blue thru real uvc lights, I have confirmed this personally (I ponied up and bought an expensive uvc meter that also includes uva/b probes, as well). I've tested the fake corncob bulbs - and yes, they are 100% fake and everyone knows it at this point (ebay/amazon still sells it, though). the bulbs that are mercury based are real and those do give off a strong blue color (I could see it as I exited the room, safely).

I also have a toothbrush uvc device (not diy, just store bought) and you can see the blue light when its activated (its actually a quite cool little device):

the metal 'cage' protects the bulb; a standard 3w 24v uvc bulb that is used in several other products. the door has a magnetic interlock so if you open it while its in use, it turns off. well done. press the aqua button on top after the door is closed and you get about 10mins of uvc.

funny - I bought this with the intention of hacking it for a disinfection box (taking its ballast and PSU) but I like it enough as it is, I'm going to keep it and use it for its intended purpose

heck, at amazon, as a 'repair part' its less than $50; and it came 100% brand new (from at least one vendor). if you buy this as part of a store labelled set that includes the brush and handle; it can be $200 and more, so the $50 part is actually not a bad deal.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BISI9AG/

fwiw

 

[linux-works]

another thing about uvc use: the smell afterwards is intense! and not in a good way, either.

I read about the 'burnt hair or pork smell' but wow, its really strong and you do need to air out the room afterwards.

I tried using a 25w screw base 120v uvc bulb in my living room, for about 5 minutes, one night. I left the room and went to another room to watch tv for a bit. even with the room door closed, the smell was still annoying and probably unsafe to inhale, even at a distance.

I can't imagine those robots that move around in stores are doing much. number 1: if people are present, that means the uvc is not very strong or perhaps not even real. number 2: the ventillation in stores is not enough to exit that ozone fast enough. so while I think the uvc robot idea makes good sense, I'm not sure the one in that supermarket is doing any good at all. I'd like to see scientific data on it; wonder who the vendor is.

 

[dfwatt]

Host-viral infection maps reveal signatures of severe COVID-19 patients - ScienceDirect
They sequenced the Broncho-Alveolar Lavage of 3 mild and 6 severe COVID-19 patients to study how the SARS-CoV-2 modifies the lung cellular landscape. A major perturbation revealed in severe COVID-19 patients included depletion of the alveolar macrophages, which are suppressive immune cells protecting the lung tissue from excessive inflammation. Immune lung cells in the severe patients are dominated by infiltrating myeloid cells, characterized by inflammatory signaling, including the cytokines IL6 and IL8.

Good catch on that piece - very interesting paper with super high tech methods/techniques.

Here's some more of the drilled down details: "Our analysis shows a dramatic impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on the immune system of severe patients, including replacement of the tissue resident alveolar macro-phages with recruited inflammatory monocytes, neutrophils, and macrophages and an altered CD8+ T cell cytotoxic response, compared to mild cases. We find that the SARS-CoV-2 mainly infects the epithelial and macrophage subsets. In addition, Viral-Track detects an unexpected co-infection of the human Meta-pneumovirus in one of the severe patients."

This potentially becomes at least one (there of course may be several) severe disease phenotype. Reversing this phenotype is an empirical pathway to effective treatments that might save lives. So this is key evidence that might eventually lead to definitive treatments. Unclear of course from this what the mechanisms of this altered ecology of immune response might be. But in any case, the loss of tissue resident macrophages is likely to be a big deal because those are specialized versions of macrophage cells. But the study a very useful clue and starting point.

 

[Mader Levap]

This wouldn't have been a much "bigger deal" had we not locked down, it would have just overwhelmed our hospitals.

"Just" overwhelmed our hospitals? "Just"? This is exactly what makes it big deal.

Do you even realize what "overwhelmed our hospitals" involves? It involves tons of people dying of things completely unrelated to COVID-19 - because medical services are either very late or outright unavailable.

Dismissing it as "just" makes you really callous. And nutty. Not to mention discussing it is indirect admission that COVID-19 is way worse than common flu.

 

[jerry33]

you can see blue thru real uvc lights, I have confirmed this personally (I ponied up and bought an expensive uvc meter that also includes uva/b probes, as well). I've tested the fake corncob bulbs - and yes, they are 100% fake and everyone knows it at this point (ebay/amazon still sells it, though). the bulbs that are mercury based are real and those do give off a strong blue color (I could see it as I exited the room, safely).

I also have a toothbrush uvc device (not diy, just store bought) and you can see the blue light when its activated (its actually a quite cool little device):

I have been using that kind of toothbrush for quite some time (Each revision appears to last a little less.) But I don't believe it does UV-C (though I have long since lost the manual).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Why is it that we're not allowed to compare this outbreak this any infection in history?

You certainly can compare it, but if you make an improper comparison, you should expect some resistance from people who know what is up.

But I'm not supposed to imagine what swine flu would have done if the 65+ population weren't mostly immune due to built up H1N1 flu shots

It’s weird that the rest of the world also had about the same death rate as the United States (IFR = ~0.02%). I did not realize the entire world got regular flu shots!

And, I am not sure why we aren’t allowed to count the absence of any type of immunity in the population as a reason to be concerned about coronavirus! Even if you are right about the flu immunizations, it does not seem relevant to be talking about theoretical virulence.

In any case, looks like you need to read up on a systematic review of swine flu mortality. Have fun. Do report back with your findings about mortality and age-stratified risk worldwide:

Case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review

Feel free to do other reading to support your claims. If you find anything, please post the link for our review.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

"Just" overwhelmed our hospitals? "Just"? This is exactly what makes it big deal.

Do you even realize what "overwhelmed our hospitals" involves? It involves tons of people dying of things completely unrelated to COVID-19 - because medical services are either very late or outright unavailable.

Dismissing it as "just" makes you really callous. And nutty. Not to mention discussing it is indirect admission that COVID-19 is way worse than common flu.

Hospitals have been shut down for 2 months to anything but absolutely life threatening exploding hearts. Hence these lunatic surgeons have the time to go nuts on here all day every day. We're literally doing 70% of the damage you describe. That's the point.

This is the danger of what that idiot from the Imperial College did with his report. He painted a scenario that was physically impossible and made total lockdowns appear rational to US governors. In retrospect, we did far more damage than we avoided.

NYC was essentially a "do nothing" mitigation scenario and they never breached hospital capacity. Certain isolated regions might have struggled, but in general we would have been OK. Patients aren't generally coming off vents recovered anyway.

 

[linux-works]

I have been using that kind of toothbrush for quite some time (Each revision appears to last a little less.) But I don't believe it does UV-C (though I have long since lost the manual).

why do you say that? I know for a fact it uses a true, honest, uvc light. its why I bought it - I had the bulb already in mind and was looking for the right circuit that was properly designed and known to drive it well.

they would not have that magnetic interlock, either (a cost item) if it was just uva or uvb, and why even bother if its not uvc?

this is phililps; not a china clone maker who WOULD use junk science and fake parts.

I'm pretty sure this is real. I'll check, too; I just need to bypass the magnetic sensor, put my uvc probe nearby and start its recorder while I am out of the room. I'm curious now

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Hospitals have been shut down for 2 months to anything but absolutely life threatening exploding hearts.

This is a totally legitimate concern. However, without widespread sensitive POC testing, not sure what could have been done in some places. It is definitely possible that some sort of screening/segregation of hospitals into “corona-free” and “corona-focused” could have helped, but it seems dangerous. There was also a lack of PPE (continues to be).

These services need to be restarted but require massive testing and PPE use and additional patient entry screening, to keep risk low. They are working on it.

We're literally doing 70% of the damage you describe. That's the point.

Source?

In retrospect, we did far more damage than we avoided.

Source?

 

[Norbert]

This is the danger of what that idiot from the Imperial College did with his report. He painted a scenario that was physically impossible and made total lockdowns appear rational to US governors.

Why do you keep posting like that has been disproved, or would be impossible? Apply the death rate in NYC to the US, and you have almost 800,000 deaths at an infection level of 20%, which is far below herd immunity.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It’s weird that the rest of the world also had about the same death rate as the United States (IFR = ~0.02%). I did not realize the entire world got regular flu shots!

Sweet Jesus. That's the entire reason I brought up swine flu. The medical community was absolutely certain IFR was 2-5% or higher well into the 2009 pandemic, even toward mid-2010. JUST AS WE HAVE TODAY. It was only around Sep/Oct 2010 when widespread global testing showed infections weren't on the order of tens of millions, but rather 1B+ pegging the IFR ~.2%

At the most basic of levels.....how can you possibly think swine flu is going to have a lower global IFR than covid19? That alone should be setting off logic alarms with nearly everything discussed here.

And, I am not sure why we aren’t allowed to count the absence of any type of immunity in the population as a reason to be concerned about coronavirus! Even if you are right about the flu immunizations, it does not seem relevant to be talking about theoretical virulence.

Fair enough, but I'm referencing the reaction at the time of the pandemic. The medical community had no idea seniors had such immunity, and certainly no identifiable reason why until very late in the game. At a parallel stage to where we closed schools and locked down, the reaction to swine flu was business as usual. The difference was that we had no smartphones to exponentially multiply panic, and we had a calm, rational leader.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/swineflu/16606

 

[dfwatt]

Why do you keep posting like that has been disproved, or would be impossible? Apply the death rate in NYC to the US, and you have almost 800,000 deaths at an infection level of 20%, which is far below herd immunity.

There is of course an answer to that question and it's not rhetorical. The far-right lives solidly and securely in a post fact Zone. When you are imbued with the one true mission of protecting White Privilege against an infestation, protecting free market capitalism against any restraint even those imposed by simple decency and fairness, and protecting gun rights from any limit even if that means routinely getting guns into the hands of lunatics and other white nationalists, you don't need facts anymore because you have religion. The one true religion.

 

[jerry33]

why do you say that?

My understanding, which I guess is incorrect, is that UV-C had to be totally isolated. I read a few reviews on various products that use UV-C where people complained that they couldn't tell when the bulb was burnt out because no light ever showed.

 

[Norbert]

There is of course an answer to that question and it's not rhetorical. The far-right lives solidly and securely in a post fact Zone.

Well, maybe they began with double facing political agitation and private thinking, and then started believing their own devious twists and conspiracy theories. Or something like that. Facts are too ineffective to be part of reality.

 

[dfwatt]

Well, maybe they began with double facing political agitation and private thinking, and then started believing their own devious twists and conspiracy theories. Or something like that. Facts are too ineffective to be part of reality.

Well I think people who believe that they're losing their grip on a privileged status that somehow white privilege and all that that implies is now threatened, and perhaps with it American privilege or at least 'Murican' privilege, that sense of threat and the sense that you are losing your advantages, makes people even more tribal. And it's pretty clear that tribalism when it is adequately "revved up" means that facts presented from the outside of the tribe cannot be trusted. And since science and by definition scientists are outside of that tribe at least in a narrow sense, the only real semi objective Arbiter of Truth that we have can't be trusted either. This virtually closes the bubble so to speak and means that no contradictory information to your perspective can get in. While everybody's commenting about the self-selecting and replicating nature of information bubbles, bubbles that are science-free zones are particularly troubling and insular.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Why do you keep posting like that has been disproved, or would be impossible? Apply the death rate in NYC to the US, and you have almost 800,000 deaths at an infection level of 20%, which is far below herd immunity.

You know the infection rate of NYC? Amazing!

Again....swine flu was found to have infected 1 out of every 4-6 people on the planet and cv19 spreads far easier. We are STILL for some reason having denominator issues here.

NYC is as densely populated as it gets and skews older, not precisely reflective of what folks would experience with exposure in the wider US. As anyone who's ridden the subway will tell you, the dose of infection New Yorkers got in Jan/Feb/Mar was insane. Then they went back to their cramped apartment and breathed the same air as everyone in the building.

They also got hit first. By the time the rest of the US was shutting down, we could have easily implemented aggressive social distancing, masks, etc. Zero people were masked in NYC when it was spreading. I don't think what we're experiencing now, and we'll continue to experience through the the next wave, is all that different than if schools had remained open. It's spreading with ease in both scenarios.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

At the most basic of levels.....how can you possibly think swine flu is going to have a lower global IFR than covid19? That alone should be setting off logic alarms with nearly everything discussed here.

As far as IFR being lower than swine flu, we have already equaled in confirmed deaths worldwide the number of estimated deaths from swine flu. And we are nowhere near done with the first wave. So it is definitely going to have a higher IFR than swine flu (which infected about 1 billion of the world’s population).

Anecdotally, I know of two deaths from COVID-19 (one of a healthy man in his 40s, the other a healthy woman in her 70s - ironically her husband in his 70s with emphysema and COPD got coronavirus as well and recovered just fine, with no hospitalization) that have directly impacted people I know. I know of zero such deaths from swine flu.

So that’s why it is pretty obvious coronavirus is really bad.

but rather 1B+ pegging the IFR ~.2%

You cannot just randomly increase fatality rates by a factor of 10. The worldwide IFR was around 0.02%. See my prior links for exact numbers.

The medical community was absolutely certain IFR was 2-5% or higher well into the 2009 pandemic, even toward mid-2010.

I haven’t read anything that suggests that. The medical community prudently activated their pandemic plan which allowed antivirals to ramp up, vaccine preparations to begin, etc. All I have heard is that they were relieved that the fatality rate, as the pandemic unfolded, was lower than they feared (not that they were certain of). Source?

 

[ZeApelido]

I disagree, here's the data:
If you look at excess mortality from Euromomo : https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ you'll realize this is equivalent to a bad influenza season. 2014/2015 had 144k . 2020 Covid has 148k. And since its a late outbreak the "excess mortality" will only be inflated since the baseline is lower. If you go by total mortality instead you'll realize that 16/17 and 17/18 are also at equivalent levels from 2020 outbreak and 14/15 is quite higher. If you go back to 99/2000 it was an actual destruction by today's media standards. P.S. for 2014/2015 data you'll have to go to their historical bulletins, it doesn't appear in the graphs anymore. It was 30% worse than 16/17 so you have an idea.

Also take a look at IFR. IFR for flu is well known to be 0,1% throughout many years of studying. Often is under. But it also goes higher. Italy has seasons at 0,3-0,7% :
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/...vLM_8VAmC_Hrxd7FUHxre_sPwFxA8d0z6VrBN_aInPd4o

Serological tests are telling us CV19 to be in the 0,2-0,5% ballpark, equivalent to a bad influenza season: PCR and Serological Studies

Come at me with your answer and data

If you look at the plots in that paper or anywhere on the internet on excess mortality, the spikes all coincide exactly with when COVID19 hit.

Now, we can definitely entertain that some of the excess mortality is not due to COVID, but side effects due to shutdown from COVID.

So perhaps some people are dying at home because they are afraid of going to the hospital.

But there are also less people dying because they aren't engaging in as much risky behavior like less driving. Would be interesting to see the stats on all of that. In general:

Total Deaths = Baseline + Covid + SideEffects - SuppressedDeaths.

These studies show that Total Deaths - Baseline are much higher than the measured Covid deaths, like 2x.

Which means if there was no reduction of some types of deaths (suppressed), the SideEffect deaths must have gone up the same amount as the deaths attributed to COVID.

But since there are some types of deaths that are reduced, this means the SideEffects deaths must have increased even further than the measured COVID deaths.

And since some folks believe COVID deaths are overreported, this means the SideEffect deaths must be even higher, heck, maybe 2x or 3x the actual COVID deaths.

This basically seems quite unrealistic. It is much more likely that the side effect and suppressed deaths are closer to balancing each other out, and most likely COVID deaths are higher (maybe not 2x) then currently reported.

 

[Norbert]

You know the infection rate of NYC? Amazing!

Why? It's no secret. You don't? We have been posting it here for a long time.