Coronavirus

[Scooby24]

My Grandmother (89 years old) was released back to her nursing home Monday having seemingly recovered from COVID, but overnight Tuesday took a bad turn and is now in Hospice. There was a lot of deception from the Nursing home but it's now come to light they are number 2 in my state for deaths as out of 97 residents, 7 have passed away from COVID.

Speaking with her nurse and asking about whether they had PPE available for visitors so I could come see her I got an earful about how of course they have PPE, the fake news has it all wrong. She went on about how all these old folks just needed to be outside and they would have been fine. Heard about how 7 deaths out of 97 residents are "great odds!" and that these old folks had cormorbidities (my grandmother doesn't other than mild dementia) and that they would have died anyways (aren't we all dying?).

I can't imagine where she got these talking points. And I certainly can't imagine why they had a breakout there. Sounds like they were taking it very seriously.

I expect there will be lawsuits.

 

[Papafox]

The Hydroxychloriquine Debate Rages On

In a recent study of hydroxychloroquine published in the New England Journal of Medicine, the authors compared nearly 1500 patients, those who received hydroxychoroquine while hospitalized and those who didn't. The findings showed neither a statistically significant danger of using the drug nor a statistically significant benefit of the drug. Game over, right?

It turns out that the authors point out that the patients given hydroxychloroquine were more ill on average than the control group. "Hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were more severely ill at baseline than those who did not receive hydroxychloroquine (median ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen, 223 vs. 360)." The authors suggest that a randomized study is needed.

I suggest that more studies of hydroxychloroquine used by itself in a hospital setting is not a good use of resources. Remdesivir has shown itself to be effective in that environment and Tony Fauci himself called Remdesevir the new standard of treatment. Further, the instances where HCQ proved to be effective tended to be when used in conjunction with either Azithromycin and/or zinc. It was a cocktail of these three substances that the New York doctor Zelenko used to get what he described as very promising results.

Now a new study has been completed by New York University's Grossman School of Medicine and it found that patients given HCQ, zinc, and azithromycin were 44% less likely to die from coronavirus. Moreover, those patients were less likely to need ICU beds, thus making the treatment particularly important should a major second wave of the virus once again threaten to overwhelm our hospitals.

This NYU study supports the Dr. Zelenko's theory that the hydrdoxychloroquine gives better access to the cells for zinc, which is useful in disrupting the replication of the virus within those cells. The study found that 400 patients given zinc along with the HCQ and azithromycin were "one and a half times more likely to recover, decreasing their need for intensive care."

Bottom line: we really need a large, randomized study of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin given in a controlled setting and given early enough in the disease progression to greatly reduce the viral loads prior to significant lung battles beginning. Proponents of the drug cocktail suggest that the drugs produce the best result when given early and the combination is not useful when the battle within the lungs is already at a high level. So, two requirements of the study would be including all three substances in the test and beginning treatment early enough to allow sufficient time to reduce the viral count prior to a major outbreak within the lungs.

 

[FreshPrince]

For me it was more the way she compared coming up with an AIDS test to coronavirus. Entirely diff things with one being magnitudes of order more difficult. It’s very shameful to use the 4 years it took to come up with an AIDS test to excuse the CV testing failure. Birx is a doc who worked on AIDS she knows the situations are not analogous at all

For me it was when she said:

"[Trump is] so attentive to the scientific literature & the details & the data. I think his ability to analyze & integrate data that comes out of his long history in business has really been a real benefit”

 

[GFernandes]

Why would anyone disagree? Doesn't this line up pretty well with reported COVID-19 deaths in Europe?

Because the mortality is not even comparable to 2014, a bad influenza outbreak.

 

[azaz]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31103-X/fulltext

 

[Daniel in SD]

Because the mortality is not even comparable to 2014, a bad influenza outbreak.

I think everyone would be very happy if the outbreak was over today. Unfortunately it looks like even in the hardest hit countries only about 5% of people have antibodies (and who knows for how long).

 

[bkp_duke]

Because the mortality is not even comparable to 2014, a bad influenza outbreak.

 

[GFernandes]

View attachment 541707

Care to comment? Do you have any data that counters what I just said?

I think everyone would be very happy if the outbreak was over today. Unfortunately it looks like even in the hardest hit countries only about 5% of people have antibodies (and who knows for how long).

What we are seeing in the "hardest hit" regions is much higher than 5%.

We are also not seeing any increase in deaths after opening lockdowns in Europe. Some people call it Spring, just like in any other pulmonary disease we have been studying for the past century. Week 19 the mortality curve is almost always back to the base.

 

[GFernandes]

Sweden has also seen a huge increase in total mortality compared to past years ( and no, the data for April is already complete, 15 days have passed ), and I didn't even include December here

 

[bkp_duke]

Care to comment? Do you have any data that counters what I just said?

I could show you data all day long (it is literally throughout this thread), but you are wanting to find data to support YOUR VIEW, not be open to the truth, whatever it may be.

@AlanSubie4Life has been doing CFR and IFR calculations based upon the data available (and granted they are not perfect), but people keep ignoring them.

Quoting myself from here:
Coronavirus


Flaw in your reasoning:

1) COVID-19 data is for basically 2 months, average influenza season is 5-6 months, a bad one is 7-8 months.
2) COVID-19 data is with STAY AT HOME and social distancing. Influenza is not.

This is not a bad flu. The mortality rate is about 6-10X higher.

Additionally, given what we are seeing in Mexico City and Brazil, the theory that this virus is going to "abate with warm weather" is pretty much disproven.

 

[Daniel in SD]

What we are seeing in the "hardest hit" regions is much higher than 5%.

We are also not seeing any increase in deaths after opening lockdowns in Europe. Some people call it Spring, just like in any other pulmonary disease we have been studying for the past century. Week 19 the mortality curve is almost always back to the base.

Europe's "opening lockdowns" are intended to still keep the reproduction rate below 1 so there shouldn't be an increase in deaths...
For our Americans readers, Europe's "opening lockdowns" is basically the same as our "lockdown".

 

[GFernandes]

I could show you data all day long (it is literally throughout this thread), but you are wanting to find data to support YOUR VIEW, not be open to the truth, whatever it may be.

@AlanSubie4Life has been doing CFR and IFR calculations based upon the data available (and granted they are not perfect), but people keep ignoring them.

Quoting myself from here:
Coronavirus


Flaw in your reasoning:

1) COVID-19 data is for basically 2 months, average influenza season is 5-6 months, a bad one is 7-8 months.
2) COVID-19 data is with STAY AT HOME and social distancing. Influenza is not.

This is not a bad flu. The mortality rate is about 6-10X higher.

Additionally, given what we are seeing in Mexico City and Brazil, the theory that this virus is going to "abate with warm weather" is pretty much disproven.

So you didn't read? I'll bold the important parts for you:
Now lets compare to 2014/2015 bulletin, that season where we lockdown the entire world:
"In 15 European countries that report mortality data to the EuroMOMO project, an excess winter mortality rate of 231.3 per 100 000 above the seasonal baseline was observed. This excess was noted FOR MORE THAN 11 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS and was the highest of the last five winter seasons. The observed excess coincided with influenza activity as determined by the weekly proportion of influenza-positive sentinel specimens reported to ECDC [4, 5]. This excess roughly corresponds to 217 000 deaths among the 94 million elderly citizens (65 years of age or older) of the 28 EU Member States. "

"For the EuroMOMO network as a whole, from week 10, 2020 and as of week 19, there were over 152,000 excess deaths estimated in total, including 14000,00 in the age group ≥65 years and 12,000 in the 15-64 years age group. This time period includes part of the influenza season as well as the start of the COVID-19 pandemic." AND WE ARE ALREADY AT THE BASELINE ( excess mortality = mortality vs base )

 

[GFernandes]

Europe's "opening lockdowns" are intended to still keep the reproduction rate below 1 so there shouldn't be an increase in deaths...
For our Americans readers, Europe's "opening lockdowns" is basically the same as our "lockdown".

You sure? Look at 3 examples of countries actually opening up and also Sweden:

 

[GFernandes]

As a comparison this is San Diego since you mentioned its like "us"

 

[GFernandes]

I could show you data all day long (it is literally throughout this thread), but you are wanting to find data to support YOUR VIEW, not be open to the truth, whatever it may be.

@AlanSubie4Life has been doing CFR and IFR calculations based upon the data available (and granted they are not perfect), but people keep ignoring them.

Quoting myself from here:
Coronavirus


Flaw in your reasoning:

1) COVID-19 data is for basically 2 months, average influenza season is 5-6 months, a bad one is 7-8 months.
2) COVID-19 data is with STAY AT HOME and social distancing. Influenza is not.

This is not a bad flu. The mortality rate is about 6-10X higher.

Additionally, given what we are seeing in Mexico City and Brazil, the theory that this virus is going to "abate with warm weather" is pretty much disproven.

Oh yea, very much disproven, Brasil has been crazy till April:

 

[Daniel in SD]

As a comparison this is San Diego since you mentioned its like "us"

View attachment 541724

I'm not sure what your point is. I can drive wherever I want. I drove 50 miles to go mountain biking yesterday. Fortunately you can't get COVID-19 by driving (especially in a Tesla since I don't even have to touch a gas pump!).

 

[GFernandes]

I'm not sure what your point is. I can drive wherever I want. I drove 50 miles to go mountain biking yesterday. Fortunately you can't get COVID-19 by driving (especially in a Tesla since I don't even have to touch a gas pump!).

you know that’s not the point. The point is that people are moving around in these locations after Lockdown started to ease down.

 

[Daniel in SD]

you know that’s not the point. The point is that people are moving around in these locations after Lockdown started to ease down.

My point is that the current restrictions in Europe are basically the same as what Americans consider a "lockdown".

 

[GFernandes]

My point is that the current restrictions in Europe are basically the same as what Americans consider a "lockdown".

Makes total sense with the data I posted

 

[mikevbf]

Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:

"Yesterday on the national scene Dr. Fauci and another number of people testified to the senate and they were very cautious about reopening. We are learning more also about this pediatric syndrome: what we have been seeing in the NYC area are some children who have recovered from covid are showing rashes, gastrointestinal symptoms—it is thought to be a post-infectious inflammatory syndrome.

Remdesivir: continues to be the therapeutic drug that shows the most promise at this time in terms of having a clinical impact on covid. We are still very early in the process of learning more about this drug. For patients that qualify for Remdesivir we are making sure that they get it.
Here at NYP one week ago our inpatients was 1349, on Monday it was 1097, today it is 1045. We are gradually declining. 389 patients on ventilators (about 37%). We are seeing more at our Columbia campus of patients on vents. Northern manhattan and the Bronx continue to see more cases than other places in the city. Transmission seems to keep happening more in those areas than in other parts.

We started testing our healthcare workers with PCR test: to date we have tested 1500 asymptomatic workers and 4% of those were positive. We have had 3,000 who had symptoms and were tested and about 30% of those were Covid positive.

As we start to expand our services we are assessing many metrics to think about how to gradually expand and renew our services.

Tele-health visits: we did about 37,000 in March, 94,000 in April, so we are going to continue those.

We have already started to separate employee entrances from patients and visitors. We are also thinking differently about parking and how we need to make more of it available now. We will continue our buses and shuttles. Our food at all campuses will continue at least for a number of more weeks.

Please take some time off to refresh and renew."