Coronavirus

[dfwatt]

I concur, I have never advocated "infinite distancing". But I disagree with you that there is not science behind this. If you are a fan of history (which many of us need to be better at because as a society we keep repeating past mistakes), there is very good, rock solid data to support social distancing. This data is old, and comes from the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918, but the age of that data makes it no less valid.

This is also not the first time social distancing has been used since 1918, but if you go by the mainstream media you would think we are flying blind here.

These are good summary articles that cover these topics.
Social Distancing Sign
https://www.nationalacademies.org/n...istancing-and-what-it-means-for-everyday-life


I also agree that different businesses should have different sets of rules and that the implementation of social distancing, at least in the USA, should have been much better thought out. There could have been a better balance of precautions without the same level of economic impact.

Yes, and consistent with the destructive polarization in our society, people are sucked falsely into the notion that governments are either being much too restricting, or they are abandoning safety recklessly. It's a false binary choice. Both of those are happening, often times in the same state, and right next door to each other even. For example, in Charlotte County Florida, tennis courts were locked for almost 2 months. That's freakin' ridiculous because tennis is not an intimate sport, at least if you're playing singles which is what I do. So I could not exercise in my normal and preferred fashion due to an arbitrary restriction that did not have a good epidemiologic/infectious disease rationale. I even called the County Parks and Rec department to complain, identifying myself as a healthcare professional, and explaining the dynamics of transmission, and got nowhere. The evidence is compelling that outdoor transmission is very low, and if you segregate balls or simply pick them up with your racket and foot, there's no danger of virus transmission. On the other hand, there were lots of places that were open for quite a while that were crowded, where people were not wearing masks, and we know that those indoor places with minimal ventilation were virtual petri dishes. So we actually have the worst of both worlds in this mess – excessive restrictions some of the time and lack of structure and healthy limits on risky behaviors in other contexts. The common denominator is ignorance, and perhaps a lack of respect for basic science. We seem to have no shortage of that.

 

[renim]

...we will have eliminated the virus in the US by August. Otherwise we will be excluded from the world as far as travel and such is concerned. Not to mention further catastrophic economic consequences.

/S. If global peak has not yet occurred, why should there the much global travel by August?

Perhaps australia and new zealand may just have formed their travel bubble by september. Australia-New Zealand travel bubble could be in place by September, expert group says

 

[bkp_duke]

We might consider it debunk'd and on this thread I would say people who have a healthy respect for covid-19 as a serious illness outnumber significantly the covid-19 deniers, on the sister thread next door (Tesla and investors Round Table) it's closer to 50/50. Which is really surprising.

I would argue that more people in that thread care more about their TSLA share price than anything else. I at least get that impression (strongly).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

/S. If global peak has not yet occurred, why should there the much global travel by August?

Perhaps australia and new zealand may just have formed their travel bubble by september. Australia-New Zealand travel bubble could be in place by September, expert group says

I’m just saying for the economy it would be good if people in the US could travel (would be good to be able to travel to China, Korea, and other clean locations). That can’t happen if we are still contaminated, so seems like we should get rid of the virus since it is relatively easy and cheap to do so.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I would argue that more people in that thread care more about their TSLA share price than anything else. I at least get that impression (strongly).

Must be a bunch of sad pandas this morning. I’m holding strong for now with my cost basis in the 200s though. Investors should keep in mind that Alameda County is seeing some of their highest case rates now (though partially this is due to testing, so it may actually be good - a little hard to say). Factory has only been open for a week or two. We shall see...

 

[SageBrush]

Here is a better translated report of the recent Swedish Seroprevalence study (ongoing)

Första resultaten från pågående undersökning av antikroppar för covid-19-virus — Folkhälsomyndigheten

Exec summary:
Samples collection from week #18 of the year (about mid - April) found 7.2% seroprevalence in Stockholm and about 1/2 that in other Swedish cities.

The study collects ~ 1200 samples each week from the entire country so I'm not sure that the Stockholm sample is big enough to be representative. Maybe -- I'm just not confident. I hope we will get weekly reports. If the numbers jump around instead of showing a steady rise proportional to increase in test positives it will be good evidence of sampling error.

 

[SageBrush]

Yes, and consistent with the destructive polarization in our society, people are sucked falsely into the notion that governments are either being much too restricting, or they are abandoning safety recklessly. It's a false binary choice. Both of those are happening, often times in the same state, and right next door to each other even. For example, in Charlotte County Florida, tennis courts were locked for almost 2 months. That's freakin' ridiculous because tennis is not an intimate sport, at least if you're playing singles which is what I do. So I could not exercise in my normal and preferred fashion due to an arbitrary restriction that did not have a good epidemiologic/infectious disease rationale. I even called the County Parks and Rec department to complain, identifying myself as a healthcare professional, and explaining the dynamics of transmission, and got nowhere. The evidence is compelling that outdoor transmission is very low, and if you segregate balls or simply pick them up with your racket and foot, there's no danger of virus transmission. On the other hand, there were lots of places that were open for quite a while that were crowded, where people were not wearing masks, and we know that those indoor places with minimal ventilation were virtual petri dishes. So we actually have the worst of both worlds in this mess – excessive restrictions some of the time and lack of structure and healthy limits on risky behaviors in other contexts. The common denominator is ignorance, and perhaps a lack of respect for basic science. We seem to have no shortage of that.

I mostly agree with you but it seems fair to point out that it is unlikely the outdoor activity that has the high risk of infection, but the social activity afterwards.

 

[golfcart]

I would argue that more people in that thread care more about their TSLA share price than anything else. I at least get that impression (strongly).

We have loftier goals in this thread like mocking southern white Christians and other 'Merkins...

 

[SageBrush]

We have loftier goals in this thread like mocking southern white Christians and other 'Merkins...

Amen to that.

It is only temporary though, until the wall gets built. And it does not have to be much over 6 inches, given the obesity.

 

[golfcart]

Amen to that.

It is only temporary though, until the wall gets built. And it does not have to be much over 6 inches, given the obesity.

Is that the wall around the Northeast to keep all the cases out of the Southern states or a different wall?

 

[rxlawdude]

In any case, with any competence in the US, the transmission dynamics in children won’t really matter (will be academic only), since we will have eliminated the virus in the US by August.

Really? Pray tell, how?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Really? Pray tell, how?

Note the caveat: “With any competence.”

It is certainly possible (to low levels) just with test, trace, etc. Just like all the other countries are doing! Just eliminate it. Seems like a sensible solution. Not sure why there is so much drama over all of this. This has been the obvious solution since late February, in South Korea.

If a single city in China can do 7 million tests in two weeks I am pretty sure we can do 70 million in the US in two weeks. Let’s get to it.

 

[madodel]

Really? Pray tell, how?

Everybody gets a coupon for one free lung transplant.
Europe's First Lung Transplant on a Coronavirus Patient

 

[rxlawdude]

It is certainly possible (to low levels) just with test, trace, etc. Just like all the other countries are doing! Just eliminate it. Seems like a sensible solution. Not sure why there is so much drama over all of this. This has been the obvious solution since late February, in South Korea.

You do realize that those countries that have "eliminated" it are having second waves, right?

And test, trace: so if a pool party (who would be stupid enough to do that... oh, wait) with 100 people transmits to 50% of them, and it takes the incubation period to even know there was transmission, you think we can eliminate this by August.

Optimism. I like it, but realism is much better in dealing with pandemic viruses.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

You do realize that those countries that have "eliminated" it are having second waves, right?

And test, trace: so if a pool party (who would be stupid enough to do that... oh, wait) with 100 people transmits to 50% of them, and it takes the incubation period to even know there was transmission, you think we can eliminate this by August.

Optimism. I like it, but realism is much better in dealing with pandemic viruses.

I said eliminate to low levels. That is clearly possible. I don’t know why we would not try (but we are not).

If you can point to some second waves of any consequence, let me know. Local shutdowns are not really an issue.

 

[rxlawdude]

If you can point to some second waves of any consequence, let me know. Local shutdowns are not really an issue.

Stand by. Georgia, Florida, and Alabama seem to be where your question will be answered in another week. That is, if they actually test and report results consistently and with veracity.

 

[golfcart]

For example, in Charlotte County Florida, tennis courts were locked for almost 2 months. That's freakin' ridiculous because tennis is not an intimate sport, at least if you're playing singles which is what I do.

To be fair, and I know this because the city of Virginia Beach did the same thing, the USTA came out with guidance in early April recommending that people take a break from Tennis until we knew more about the virus and how it spreads.

Time to take a break from tennis, says top U.S. group

Now that it has become more clear that outdoor activity is of much lower risk they have changed their guidance and cities (at least locally) have reopened the courts. I think most local governments were simply following that recommendation. At least that is what my city told me when I called and asked why the had suddenly closed the courts.

My kid and I started playing when schools closed as something we could do with the playgrounds, basketball courts, and indoor activities all closed. I disagreed with closing the courts too at the time but I am willing to give them a pass on that one given the USTA guidance.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Stand by. Georgia, Florida, and Alabama seem to be where your question will be answered in another week. That is, if they actually test and report results consistently and with veracity.

I’m not talking about in the US! I’m talking about countries where they have effectively eliminated community transmission! I am not aware of any significant second waves. (Singapore seems to be the worst example, but appears to be due to negligence and shortsightedness.)

Obviously things could end up a bit grim in the US until we actual commit to stopping community transmission (definition: know the origin of every positive case). There’s really only one way to do that, and now is the time. If cases explode it will be out of reach without another shutdown (especially since we are politicizing masks and other sensible public health measures).

 

[rxlawdude]

Obviously things could end up a bit grim in the US until we actual commit to stopping community transmission (definition: know the origin of every positive case). There’s really only one way to do that, and now is the time. If cases explode it will be out of reach without another shutdown (especially since we are politicizing masks and other sensible public health measures).

Well, with all sorts of EUA-approved, nonvetted tests passing around the country willy-nilly, I'm not sanguine this will happen until there is a standardized, vetted test for both the virus and antibodies (which we still don't know the significance of).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Well, with all sorts of EUA-approved, nonvetted tests passing around the country willy-nilly, I'm not sanguine this will happen until there is a standardized, vetted test for both the virus and antibodies (which we still don't know the significance of).

Antibody tests are irrelevant for this. I am talking PCR. It has a non negligible false negative rate but basically non-existent false positive (not that that matters). Look at the Paul Romer link above, it is quite informative.

The PCR test is the current standard test and would be perfectly adequate for this purpose. Let’s try to do 100 million per month. Not sure why we are not already doing so. It’s not like people have anything else to do - they may as well get paid for making and administering tests.