Coronavirus

[eevee-fan]

Or if what is done does not have the desired positive effect.

I get the impression that San Francisco has a pretty tame testing program mostly centered around hospitals but it is enough to know how the epidemic is progressing, and of course to handle admissions correctly. The marginal benefit of more testing is uncertain if the population is already behaving smartly.

Testing only at hospital means we are only identifying symptomatic and worry well individuals. While this is a good if we're trying to reduce unnecessary tests but bad in that we believe we have low infected rate... leading to taking longer for things to go back to normal.

 

[eevee-fan]

So we have a cohort of 6,200 who signed waivers to be COVID guinea pigs. I wonder if they'd agree to be tested though if all they get is a bad case of sniffles and end up on a ventilator.

... more than 6,200...

US Troops Would Be Among First to Get a Working COVID-19 Vaccine, Officials Say

 

[SageBrush]

If they are in most states getting the vote out isn't really going to matter. Everything I read says there are only 7 or 8 states that will matter on November 3rd. The Russians are doing everything they can to manipulate those states. AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, OH, PA and WI. My fear is if CV goes ballistic in October that could make the election very close and more easily manipulated, especially in states where vote by mail is limited or complicated.

One of the few things Repukes and Dems can agree on (and actually agree on) is that Covid-19 tips the election process towards mail-in voting, and by extension favors the Dems. Trump conspiracy garbage about fraud aside, the notion is that the true 'silent majority' are anti-trump (and anti-Repuke too, if trump is to be believed) people unmotivated or unable to vote in person but they would vote electronically if it was easy. Mail-in voting is something of an unknown that is presumed to be more similar to easy electronic than physical voting.

 

[eevee-fan]

It definitely inflated the expected turnout. I think his campaign was boasting (whether it was exaggeration or not) of one million ticket requests.

To me, at least, it was funny seeing that those empty seats were blue. He definitely saw the blue wave. Might have been a foreshadowing of November.

Reservations must have been made by Russian or Chinese bots.

 

[SageBrush]

Testing only at hospital means we are only identifying symptomatic

"Only" he says. That number is *huge*, and for that matter it is the number that matters. The country is not really affected in any substantial way by mild infections at home.

The only virtue I can see for more testing in the community is as an early warning signal but that marginal utility drops off rapidly. You do not have to poll (aka: test) everybody to know what is going on. This is why I kept telling people here that their demands for universal availability of serological tests was a waste of resources and focus. All you need is a poll every couple weeks or less.

 

[eevee-fan]

"Only" he says. That number is *huge*, and for that matter it is the number that matters. The country is not really affected in any substantial way by mild infections at home.

The only virtue I can see for more testing in the community is as an early warning signal but that marginal utility drops off rapidly. You do not have to poll (aka: test) everybody to know what is going on. This is why I kept telling people here that their demands for universal availability of serological tests was a waste of resources and focus. All you need is a poll every couple weeks or less.

Well, using the same argument, we should recommend no testing at all. Just count occupied bed at hospitals and burial requests at funeral homes.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Testing only at hospital means we are only identifying symptomatic and worry well individuals. While this is a good if we're trying to reduce unnecessary tests but bad in that we believe we have low infected rate... leading to taking longer for things to go back to normal.

This is a good thread explaining the various prongs of a testing strategy. This is all pretty self-evident stuff. It boils down to having a lot of tests, the testing delivery and processing infrastructure, stimulating demand for them, and having the follow-through infrastructure in place.

https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1274576193333850112?s=21

3-5 million a day would be good right now, assuming the outbreak does not increase in size.

500k to a million to find the existing ~30k very symptomatic cases (personal health), 3 million to test all their close contacts (mitigation), and another million a day for surveillance. Would be good to have more of course.

This is why I kept telling people here that their demands for universal availability of serological tests was a waste of resources and focus

Serological tests have never been really demanded as a way of stopping things. They are really only useful as a population-level metric, to understand what the future may hold.

 

[SageBrush]

Well, using the same argument, we should recommend no testing at all. Just count occupied bed at hospitals and burial requests at funeral homes.

No, that would be akin to saying don't poll, just wait for election results or the sh1tshow that follows.

Read about marginal utility

 

[SMAlset]

If they are in most states getting the vote out isn't really going to matter. Everything I read says there are only 7 or 8 states that will matter on November 3rd. The Russians are doing everything they can to manipulate those states. AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, OH, PA and WI. My fear is if CV goes ballistic in October that could make the election very close and more easily manipulated, especially in states where vote by mail is limited or complicated.

Covid, Russian interference or not, as we all know it's also very much about Electorial candidates something I'm not sure the Dems had anticipated last time around since they thought Hillary would win by a landslide. So reassuring (sarcasm) about our voting methods to know even if you get the popular vote you can still lose in the end.

 

[eevee-fan]

No, that would be akin to saying don't poll, just wait for election results or the sh1tshow that follows.

Read about marginal utility

Correction noted... I guess also, technically, if you don't test, then those hospitalizations and deaths would not be counted as COVID related.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

No, that would be akin to saying don't poll, just wait for election results or the sh1tshow that follows.

Read about marginal utility

Marginal utility currently appears to be extremely high! Suspect it will remain so until we hit 3-5 million a day. I think even 30 million tests a day would probably be worth it. Helps stimulate the economy and create jobs. Would bring things to a swift end and would enable international travel as the methods are scaled worldwide.

 

[AZRI11]

Young people don't care about being infected. They know no one (personally) their age who died from it. As long as there's no vaccine this will not stop spreading. I expect NY, NJ, and the rest of the northeast to have a spike in cases next month. Deaths will stabilize at about 3k-5k per week in USA. This is our new normal.

 

[SageBrush]

Young people don't care about being infected. They know no one (personally) their age who died from it. As long as there's no vaccine this will not stop spreading. I expect NY, NJ, and the rest of the northeast to have a spike in cases next month. Deaths will stabilize at about 3k-5k per week in USA. This is our new normal.

Young people are the hardest hit by unemployment, partial employment, and lack of health insurance. There are not a lot of deaths but there is no lack of hospitalization. The average hospital Covid-19 bill is $130K.

It is far too simplistic to say that they do not care about Covid-19 infection. It is just that for now, getting drunk and then laid is priority #1, #2 and #3. In more rational times it is only #1 and #2

 

[dhanson865]

‘We are facing extermination’: Brazil losing a generation of indigenous leaders to Covid-19


"‘We are facing extermination’: Brazil losing a generation of indigenous leaders to Covid-19 - Coronavirus has swept through tribes, killing elders – and inflicting irreparable damage on tribal history, culture and medicine"

 

[AZRI11]

Young people are the hardest hit by unemployment, partial employment, and lack of health insurance. There are not a lot of deaths but there is no lack of hospitalization. The average hospital Covid-19 bill is $130K.

It is far too simplistic to say that they do not care about Covid-19 infection. It is just that for now, getting drunk and then laid is priority #1, #2 and #3. In more rational times it is only #1 and #2

This is the attitude of younger people that I know. They are filling up the restaurant's and beaches.

 

[Kant.Ing]

Actual statement from a co-worker... "why would you not want to get infected earlier so you get the antibody faster and not worry about it." Yes, I think we found a volunteer.

If he really wants to pursue that route, please remind him to get infected on a weekly basis. That's called reinforced immunity and natural selection.

Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Young people don't care about being infected. They know no one (personally) their age who died from it. As long as there's no vaccine this will not stop spreading. I expect NY, NJ, and the rest of the northeast to have a spike in cases next month. Deaths will stabilize at about 3k-5k per week in USA. This is our new normal.

For the ~15k cases over the last week in AZ, about 5k have had their hospitalization status reported.

Of those reported, 8% of those were hospitalized (~415)

10 below 20
115 between 20 and 44
140 between 45 and 64
150 above 65.

20-44 made up the majority of the cases, so their hospitalization rate is substantially lower than 8%, but it's not negligible! Probably about 3%. Yikes. I hope the young ones put some thought into this in the coming weeks. I also hope that they think about their parents.

 

[eevee-fan]

If he really wants to pursue that route, please remind him to get infected on a weekly basis. That's called reinforced immunity and natural selection.

Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies

The response I got was that "the body never forgets so it will just produce more antibody when you need it later." Looks like found a willing volunteer for either the control group or the experiment group.

 

[SageBrush]

The response I got was that "the body never forgets so it will just produce more antibody when you need it later."

That is ~ correct.

The tricky details your friend is missing are hospitalization and CFR. In any case he can go to the local ER exit with a large sign that says "will pay for Covid infection."

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If he really wants to pursue that route, please remind him to get infected on a weekly basis. That's called reinforced immunity and natural selection.

Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies

I'm not too concerned about these early studies yet. Still optimistic about the likelihood of sustained immunity and success of a vaccine (the timeline on the vaccine I'm less optimistic about - there might be some false starts but hoping for some luck there). Immunity is complicated, and I'm not sure that a moderately reduced antibody titer (from one small study) is the only relevant metric here. Perhaps @bkp_duke could chime in with his expert opinion?