Coronavirus

[wdolson]

Sorry if this has been covered, but why aren't deaths spiking yet? Is this all 28 year olds making up the hospitalization spike? If so, doesn't that mean literally everyone and their mother has or is getting this virus in wave 1?

I'm quite surprised to see the case spike without a death spike, even with our absolutely arbitrary testing "plan". Hope it's not just in the mail and gonna hit in 5 days.

Remdesivir and new nursing techniques are not reducing the number of people who need to be hospitalized, but fewer people are having to go on ventilators and/or die. The age of the population getting sick is trending downwards, which are people more capable of surviving which is also contributing the lower death toll. But younger people infected can end up transmitting it to their parents and grandparents who aren't as resilient.

I've also noticed that the big outbreak right now is in the southern half of the US. That's the part of the country that is using air conditioning more. I think there will be a link found between HVAC systems and COVID spread.

Another thing is a study out of Sydney, Australia found a strong link between humidity and spread
Reduced humidity linked to increased COVID-19 risk

Some of the places that are seeing big spikes have very dry summers like Arizona and California, but in the Southeast where summers are very humid, everyone is indoors most of the time with the AC running this time of the year and air conditioning dries out the air.

There was a big concern it would hit Africa hard, but so far the outbreaks in Africa have not been as bad as feared. Additionally we haven't seen big spikes in cases among Black Lives Matters protesters. What both of these have in common is a high degree of being outdoors. In much of Africa, people live lives that are either mostly outdoors for much of the day, or if they are indoors, the ventilation is outside air flowing through the building instead of pumped in with an HVAC system.

Additionally in the Southeastern US mask wearing is more of a political issue and fewer people are wearing them. Food deserts created by Walmart are also more common in the SE US than other parts of the country. Many counties in that part of the country have one food store: Walmart and everyone in the county goes there to shop. A few infected people in the local Walmart on a hot summer day with the AC running at max could infect others from all over the county.

For most of this month, the weather in the northern half of the US has been milder than the southern half. Here west of the Cascades in Washington we've only had a few days over 80F. The house AC has only been on about three days over the last month. More inland it's been warmer (and Yakima county has been one of the worst outbreaks in the NW for more than a month), but compared to the Southern half of the US, the weather in the north thus far has been more pleasant. July and August are the hottest months, which means more air conditioning in most parts of the country and further north we may see COVID outbreaks during the summer.

Houston hospitals hit 100% base ICU capacity. Then they stopped reporting data.

Glad to hear Houston is managing it so well and efficiently, 100% and holding steady.

That may be contributing the the hospitalizations flattening. As Mark Twain said "there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." I could go into the politics of why some places are lying (both inside and outside the US), but this is the wrong thread for that.

 

[SageBrush]

Perhaps the most important and obvious aim but not the only important aim. Preventing serious illness is also a consideration particularly in view of the evidence that serious illness with covid-19 looks like it may have long-term consequences in a significant percentage of the cases. Last but not least being really ill is painfully uncomfortable, and additionally, expensive as hell in this country. So while declining mortality or at least declining case fatality rate may be good news, we'd still be a hell of a lot better off limiting infection and accelerating progress towards a vaccine. How many patients do you think are going to be bankrupt because of covid-19? I don't know but I wager it's going to be well into six figures.

Yep. There is also the wee problem of what happens when hospitals start turning away patients

 

[SageBrush]

instead of pumped in with an HVAC system

Your grand exposition is based on a flawed understanding of AC.

AC is recirculated air. There is no ventilation. And that I suspect is the problem, not humidity

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Interesting if the cases go up or plateau but the death rate stays low.

I certainly hope that this approximately happens, but deaths are already going up substantially in AZ (see above plot). About 30% of the deaths over the last 10 days in AZ have come from people under age 65, so that's not great news.

@wdolson - did you ever get your antibody test?

As far as AC goes, I suspect it doesn't matter all that much what you do as far as treating the air goes. It's the local transmission in the room prior to recirculation and/or filtering that probably really adds up. Probably isn't great to keep recirculating it, but not clear how long the exhaled virus would be viable. For sure makes sense to take some precautions on treating the air out of an abundance of caution, but it's not like that's going to be a magical fix.

 

[Singuy]

Remdesivir and new nursing techniques are not reducing the number of people who need to be hospitalized, but fewer people are having to go on ventilators and/or die. The age of the population getting sick is trending downwards, which are people more capable of surviving which is also contributing the lower death toll. But younger people infected can end up transmitting it to their parents and grandparents who aren't as resilient.

I've also noticed that the big outbreak right now is in the southern half of the US. That's the part of the country that is using air conditioning more. I think there will be a link found between HVAC systems and COVID spread.

Another thing is a study out of Sydney, Australia found a strong link between humidity and spread
Reduced humidity linked to increased COVID-19 risk

Some of the places that are seeing big spikes have very dry summers like Arizona and California, but in the Southeast where summers are very humid, everyone is indoors most of the time with the AC running this time of the year and air conditioning dries out the air.

There was a big concern it would hit Africa hard, but so far the outbreaks in Africa have not been as bad as feared. Additionally we haven't seen big spikes in cases among Black Lives Matters protesters. What both of these have in common is a high degree of being outdoors. In much of Africa, people live lives that are either mostly outdoors for much of the day, or if they are indoors, the ventilation is outside air flowing through the building instead of pumped in with an HVAC system.

Additionally in the Southeastern US mask wearing is more of a political issue and fewer people are wearing them. Food deserts created by Walmart are also more common in the SE US than other parts of the country. Many counties in that part of the country have one food store: Walmart and everyone in the county goes there to shop. A few infected people in the local Walmart on a hot summer day with the AC running at max could infect others from all over the county.

For most of this month, the weather in the northern half of the US has been milder than the southern half. Here west of the Cascades in Washington we've only had a few days over 80F. The house AC has only been on about three days over the last month. More inland it's been warmer (and Yakima county has been one of the worst outbreaks in the NW for more than a month), but compared to the Southern half of the US, the weather in the north thus far has been more pleasant. July and August are the hottest months, which means more air conditioning in most parts of the country and further north we may see COVID outbreaks during the summer.



That may be contributing the the hospitalizations flattening. As Mark Twain said "there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." I could go into the politics of why some places are lying (both inside and outside the US), but this is the wrong thread for that.

Or maybe the link is people are forced to stay indoors because it is hot as hell outside. In Florida we don't have mass transit like NYC so I don't expect Any one county to have so many cases that is unstainble. Even though our state cases are high, they are mostly spread out with the highest number being under 2k new cases/day. I seriously doubt we will have 20k new cases per day in any particular city.

 

[dhanson865]

Your grand exposition is based on a flawed understanding of AC.

AC is recirculated air. There is no ventilation. And that I suspect is the problem, not humidity

I'm not sure why you would say that. Most buildings are not air tight and turning the AC on brings in outside air even if it isn't pulled directly through duct work. Any building tight enough not to bring in air that way has to have a separate air handler just to exchange inside and outside air so people won't get sick.

Anytime anyone competent designs or installs a new HVAC system they do blower door tests just to see how much outside air is making it's way in and use that information in choices to setup the system.

For example if it's 50% humidity in my house and I turn on the fan in my central AC to continuous while it's raining outside the humidity rises due to the outside air being pulled in. If i switch the fan from continuous to automatic the fan runs only when the AC condenser is active and removes humidity but outside air still makes its way in.

 

[TespaceX]

Or maybe the link is people are forced to stay indoors because it is hot as hell outside. In Florida we don't have mass transit like NYC so I don't expect Any one county to have so many cases that is unstainble. Even though our state cases are high, they are mostly spread out with the highest number being under 2k new cases/day. I seriously doubt we will have 20k new cases per day in any particular city.

I would seriously hope there is no one city with 20k/day. That would be like saying 4% of Miami residents are coming down with the infection EVERYday. You would get local herd immunization in no time.


In other news, apparently, all systems are a go in Houston for the TX Republican convention with no social distancing planned and no masks required.
But, outdoor gatherings are still technically limited to groups of 100.
Texas Republicans move forward with plans for an indoor convention in Houston, the state's biggest coronavirus hot spot

 

[Daniel in SD]

I would seriously hope there is no one city with 20k/day. That would be like saying 4% of Miami residents are coming down with the infection EVERYday. You would get local herd immunization in no time.


In other news, apparently, all systems are a go in Houston for the TX Republican convention with no social distancing planned and no masks required.
But, outdoor gatherings are still technically limited to groups of 100.
Texas Republicans move forward with plans for an indoor convention in Houston, the state's biggest coronavirus hot spot

~2.5 million people in NYC got COVID-19 (~25% of 10 million).
~55k hospitalized total
~1700 hospitalized on peak day
1.7k/55k*2.5m = ~77k people got COVID-19 per day at the peak.
Or, ~0.8% of the population of NYC got COVID on a single day. Pretty crazy. The 'rona comes at you fast.

The party is making several adjustments to hold the convention safely. Dickey promised an "abundance" of hand-sanitizer stations and said rooms will be cleaned between meetings.

They're going to have hand-sanitizer which can also be used disinfect lungs when needed. Only a bunch of doomers think it's a bad idea.

 

[renim]

looks like Victoria covid 19 is increasing 50% each day

the rest of Australia is pretty good, (south Australia particularly looks good (they share a border with Victoria))

 

[TEG]

 

[SMAlset]

A visual of two demos from clinical microbiology lab director, Rich Davis, PhD, D(ABBMM), MLS from Providence Sacred Heart:

on sneezing, singing, talking and coughing with and without a mask on.

 

[SageBrush]

I'm not sure why you would say that. Most buildings are not air tight and turning the AC on brings in outside air even if it isn't pulled directly through duct work.

I was not saying that AC magically seals cracks in the building envelope, I was saying that AC recirculates air. Let me rephrase it this way for you: AC does not add ventilation

 

[wdolson]

I certainly hope that this approximately happens, but deaths are already going up substantially in AZ (see above plot). About 30% of the deaths over the last 10 days in AZ have come from people under age 65, so that's not great news.

That's not good.

@wdolson - did you ever get your antibody test?

Yes. I was finally able to get a test in early May. Though I later found out that test was only about 75% accurate and only that within 1 month of recovery. It had been over 2 months at that point. I searched out the Roche test which is reported to be the best one and took it in early June. The phlebotomist said they had only been using the new test for about a week, but he said it was much better.

Both came back negative. However I have read that people who have mild cases frequently have undetectable antibodies by 8 weeks after infection. It is completely unknown if they still have immunity or not.

There was also a study that people with A type blood have a much higher incidence of bad cases than other blood types and both my SO and I are type A (she's A+ and I'm A-).

As far as AC goes, I suspect it doesn't matter all that much what you do as far as treating the air goes. It's the local transmission in the room prior to recirculation and/or filtering that probably really adds up. Probably isn't great to keep recirculating it, but not clear how long the exhaled virus would be viable. For sure makes sense to take some precautions on treating the air out of an abundance of caution, but it's not like that's going to be a magical fix.

I'm just noticing the correlation between the hottest parts of the country right now and high case loads. There is also a political correlation to some degree, but New Mexico and California are both blue states. Eastern California is pretty conservative, but Los Angeles has had a bad outbreak too. Except for Marin County most of the California coast north of Los Angeles is doing pretty well.

In the town where my father lives (Morro Bay) air conditioning is almost non-existent. He's 100 and in assisted living, so I'm concerned about him. I've been keeping tabs on cases there and the entire county has been very lightly hit. Morro Bay's population is mostly over 65, but the entire county (San Luis Obispo) has had 473 cases and 1 death. I can't find the numbers for the city itself at the moment, but it was only a handful of cases.

I'm just looking for patterns in the data. Whether someone believes this is real or a hoax is a factor, but environment appears to be a factor too. The belief that this would behave like cold and flu and disappear with hot weather did not play out. We have some handle on how it transmits, but not a complete picture yet.

I was not saying that AC magically seals cracks in the building envelope, I was saying that AC recirculates air. Let me rephrase it this way for you: AC does not add ventilation

I didn't say it did add ventilation. I said AC dries the air. Cold air can hold less humidity than warm air. So when it's cooled water comes out of solution. That's why ACs produce water.

Viruses are also extremely small. Only the highest quality filtration systems will catch any viruses at all and I don't know of any that will catch all. There are ways to treat air as it passes through an HVAC system that can kill viruses, such as expose it to UV. Most airliners now do this, but few ground based air systems do.

The study from Australia found a fairly strong correlation between daily humidity and COVID cases. Dry air improved transmission. It's possible, though not studied that artificially drying the air (like with AC) may also increase transmission, but nobody is studying it.

 

[SMAlset]

An interesting result from the covid-19 pandemic—Chesapeake Energy filing for bankruptcy due to falling oil prices.

From ESPN (due to Chesapeake’s ties to the Oklahoma City Thunders). I recall reading about Aubrey McClendon’s business dealings and subsequent demise.

Company with ties to Thunder files for bankruptcy

 

[cwerdna]

American, United Airlines end social distancing, will book flights to full capacity

60 Minutes on Sunday ran this story about the wild west of antibody tests w/hugely varying accuracy: Flawed COVID-19 antibody tests shipped without FDA review. The video's not behind a paywall yet. It will probably within a few weeks end up behind the CBS All Access paywall.

 

[SageBrush]

It's possible, though not studied that artificially drying the air (like with AC) may also increase transmission, but nobody is studying it.

And for good reason

 

[renim]

Drying the air will definately result in reducing droplet size and probably increases droplet count.

There comes a size where coronavirus will just pass straight through non vented masks unaffected and be inhaled deep into the lungs.

It is assumed that outdoors this drying process kills the virus ( uv and temp etc) but for sure indoors it needs dilution.

 

[renim]

Bacteria is not coronavirus.

A visual of two demos from clinical microbiology lab director, Rich Davis, PhD, D(ABBMM), MLS from Providence Sacred Heart:

on sneezing, singing, talking and coughing with and without a mask on.

View attachment 557985 View attachment 557988 View attachment 557989

Is it so hard to do this test but using covid19 patients?

 

[SageBrush]

Bacteria is not coronavirus.


Is it so hard to do this test but using covid19 patients?

Yes, if one would like to not risk infecting others

 

[HG Wells]

Yes, if one would like to not risk infecting others

So, you dont think this could be ferreted out ?