Coronavirus

[NikolaACDC]

South Dakota governor promises no social distancing when Trump attends Mount Rushmore celebration

South Dakota governor promises no social distancing when Trump attends Mount Rushmore celebration
...
Noem promised a "large event" set for Friday on her Ingraham Angle appearance, saying "we told those folks that have concerns that they can stay home."
As for everyone who comes, "we'll be giving out free face masks, if they choose to wear one," Noem said.
"But we will not be social distancing."
About 7,500 people will be allowed to attend the event
...

South Dakota trying hard to inmprove their position in the table, currently at a lowly ~40th place in the race to the top.

From June 29:

 

[JRP3]

This is correct. Even in NY state, the data is showing that only 7% or so of the population are actually immune (15-20% in NYC).

Do we know for sure that positive antibody tests = immunity?

 

[NikolaACDC]

One graphic explains why Americans are facing an EU travel ban - CNN
One graphic explains why Americans are facing an EU travel ban

A couple of graphs from this article:

 

[N5329K]

Do we know for sure that positive antibody tests = immunity?

No. Not for sure. But probably, for a while.
Robin

 

[bkp_duke]

Do we know for sure that positive antibody tests = immunity?

By definition an antibody works to attack that which is was custom-built for (in this case the virus). It's not really a question of if you have immunity (the body would not ramp up production of the antibodies to detectable levels if they didn't work), but the real question is for how long the immunity they provide will last (i.e. viral mutation to avoid antibody immunity).

If antibodies didn't work, we would not have great success with convalescent serum, the entire point of which is to harvest antibodies produced from an individual that recovered from COVID-19.


Now, there is one possible exception why you might get a positive antibody test and not actually have immunity. It would be that the manufacturer did such a piss-poor job of making the Ab test that you are testing for antibodies against all coronaviruses. That, however, is not very likely as even the poorest quality of the tests appear to be specific for the SARS-CoV-2 virus (so, few false positives).

EDIT - ok, there is a second I can think of, a cross-reactive antibody that triggers the test to be positive. But that should be eliminated in the QA process (it should be a basic check).

 

[rxlawdude]

Reminds me of Breaking Bad...

One of my questions about pseudoephedrine sale restrictions asks students which law implemented these restrictions, and one of the distractors is "The Walter White Methamphetamine Control Act." In six years, two students selected that answer.

 

[rxlawdude]

That, however, is not very likely as even the poorest quality of the tests appear to be specific for the SARS-CoV-2 virus (so, few false positives).

But many, many (up to 50%) false negatives.

 

[bkp_duke]

But many, many (up to 50%) false negatives.

Yeah, and the internal controls for these antibodies have been tested against probably just one SARS-CoV-2 virus protein sequence. Their false negative rates should not be that high . . . unless we are dealing with a strain of virus that has mutated and antibodies produced against it do not bind well to the test.

That's a distinct possibility, because in fact we are not dealing with just one SARS-CoV-2 virus, but an entire series of them (something like a dozen or so at last count).

 

[rxlawdude]

Yeah, and the internal controls for these antibodies have been tested against probably just one SARS-CoV-2 virus protein sequence. Their false negative rates should not be that high . . . unless we are dealing with a strain of virus that has mutated and antibodies produced against it do not bind well to the test.

That's a distinct possibility, because in fact we are not dealing with just one SARS-CoV-2 virus, but an entire series of them (something like a dozen or so at last count).

Agree. This is a nasty bugger of a virus, and every day we learn more about what we don't know about its long-term implications.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That's a distinct possibility, because in fact we are not dealing with just one SARS-CoV-2 virus, but an entire series of them (something like a dozen or so at last count).

I have read that there are more like 40k different variants. But how many of those actually have a phenotype that is distinctly different I do not know (I only know of the D614G, which may be more transmissible, since that's been widely reported on). Presumably just a handful.

 

[linux-works]

Agree. This is a nasty bugger of a virus, and every day we learn more about what we don't know about its long-term implications.

or the short term or even the reverse-term.

see the 'circling the curve' illustration, back on page(-1) from here

 

[linux-works]

One of my questions about pseudoephedrine sale restrictions asks students which law implemented these restrictions, and one of the distractors is "The Walter White Methamphetamine Control Act." In six years, two students selected that answer.

how many said 'heisenberg' ?

the more pop culture brings awareness of my good man heisenberg, the better.

or not.

 

[SageBrush]

South Dakota governor promises no social distancing when Trump attends Mount Rushmore celebration
...

This is 3D chess.
SD is being set up to become the 'quarantine state.'

 

[SageBrush]

Column: Arizona's rules for rationing healthcare in the COVID-19 pandemic should terrify you

It boils down to no critical care for the elderly, and the age threshold will drop as bed supply becomes more constrained. These rules are now active in AZ

I wonder if douchey is regretting his 'no enforced public health' trumperism yet, or the 'it's all from more testing' reassurance of his sheeple.

 

[electracity]

Tesla's production areas have a lot more air volume and movement than a home or office.

New paper today seems to say (on a quick read) that 42% of infected Italians studied were symptom free:

Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’ | Nature

 

[linux-works]

The psychological effects on both patients and everyone else is going to be massive. It's been 100 years since we've had a pandemic this dangerous and most of the people alive today grew up in a time when most of the worst infectious diseases were under control.

the middle ages were a lot more than 100 years ago; or are we taking relativistic effects into account, for some reason?

 

[electracity]

But if you're 80+? You have a less than 75% chance of surviving.

That's going to be skewed towards 80+ in nursing homes. A quick google says the average stay before death in a nursing home is 13 months.

Not saying that Covid isn't dangerous for the elderly.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Tesla's production areas have a lot more air volume and movement than a home or office.

New paper today seems to say (on a quick read) that 42% of infected Italians studied were symptom free:

Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’ | Nature

Relevant table from paper. Definitely on the higher end of numbers I've seen and a very small sample size. This Korean call outbreak study found only 2% asymptomatic (Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea). Obviously that's much lower than the consensus of about 20-30% asymptomatic. Maybe the Koreans count very mild symptoms? The Vo study required two of some of the symptoms to count as symptomatic. Or maybe the European (D614G) strain is different?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like there have been about 75 outbreaks recorded in congregate facilities in AZ over the last 10 days. Most of those recorded outbreaks occurred over the last few weeks (a few were updates from months ago).

Of those 75 outbreaks in the last 3 weeks, about 40 were in long term care facilities and assisted living facilities.

Generally, we should expect this to become more common if the disease pressure continues to increase. Just the way things go; it will overwhelm defenses.

On the upside, positivity numbers in AZ seem to have peaked (or at least crested), at about 20%. Note that AZ has test volume limitations at the Sonora Quest Lab (unclear when those will be resolved), so it's possible that test quantities & positive counts will be limited, but if the outbreaks there are continuing to grow, you would expect positivity to continue to climb. So there's some evidence worth keeping an eye on that suggests that the actions taken by people over the last two weeks is now reducing the spread. Nothing certain yet - these numbers could still continue to trend up since most of the last 10 days are in the "test result not yet reported" window.

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/wendellpotter/status/1276158510955401216?s=20