Coronavirus

[eevee-fan]

Governor equates wearing a mask to freedom. See doctor's reaction. - CNN Video

 

[SageBrush]

It's a mess, so I mostly ignore case counts or use 7 day rolling averages..

I do too for the most part, particularly see-saw graphs. The downside of course is that you have to wait days to see an emerging trend.
No matter which graph you choose you see a peak a few days ago. I think we can say with confidence that CA is no longer rising; and with some confidence that daily cases are dropping now.

Contrast that with states like OK, AZ, Texas or Fl where daily increases are obvious. When one state is rising ~ 5 - 10% a day and another is dropping at that rate or more, you are looking at night and day in terms of the epidemic

 

[wdolson]

So everybody should have zero contact with other humans until the SARS-CoV-2 virus no longer exists?

What if that takes the rest of your life?

That is the nuclear option.

There is no guarantee that this virus will ever disappear. We have flu vaccine for lethal strains of flu. We have never hit a full 50% of vaccination.

We have a poor track record coming up with vaccines for respiratory viruses. The flu vaccine does not really prevent a person coming down with the flu, it more often just makes the case they get milder. And reactions to the flu vaccine is a real thing. A friend finally got conjoled into getting a flu shot and she had a severe allergic reaction. It took her over a year to get back to something approaching normal and she has permanent nerve damage from it.

The flu is also an odd disease. Some adults get a strain when they're young and never get it again. When I was a kid, I got whatever strain was going around that year, but my parents never got sick, nor did my sister. After about age 10 I almost came down with the flu once in 2013 (I didn't get fully sick, just felt like I was coming down with it off and on for a week or two but never got sicker than that). Some adults get the flu over and over again throughout their lives.

COVID may have a pattern like the flu. Some people get it once and never get it again while others get it every year when it comes around.

There are a lot of ignorant people out there. (Plus a few that have allergic reactions.)

I've never had a flu shot and never plan to get one. As an adult I've never had a full blown case of the flu and I have a pattern of weird reactions to drugs, so I'm very cautious.

As for masks, they aren't 100% effective at stopping COVID transmission or reception, but think of it as improving the odds and everything done is cumulative. Just to apply some numbers (these are just pulled out of the air and are only being used to illustrate the concept), say wearing a mask improves your odds by 50%, and if another person is wearing a mask, it reduces their odds of transmitting by 50%. On top of that say social distancing 6 feet (or 2 meters) only improves odds by 50%. The way probability works is the odds multiply together, so the odds if getting COVID in this scenario if both people are wearing a mask and social distancing too are:

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8

With those given numbers, that means your odds of getting COVID have dropped 87.5% by just doing a few simple things. That's why we do these things. The real numbers aren't 50% for each, I'm sure someone here can give them off the top of their head, but these things do help reduce the spread.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I do too for the most part, particularly see-saw graphs. The downside of course is that you have to wait days to see an emerging trend.
No matter which graph you choose you see a peak a few days ago. I think we can say with confidence that CA is no longer rising; and with some confidence that daily cases are dropping now.

Contrast that with states like OK, AZ, Texas or Fl where daily increases are obvious. When one state is rising ~ 5 - 10% a day and another is dropping at that rate or more, you are looking at night and day in terms of the epidemic

I think you're letting your politics blur your vision. I certainly don't see any signs of slowdown. We may not be as bad as AZ, TX, and FL but it's pretty bad. Luckily we are rolling back some of the "reopening" but it's going to get ugly here too.

My zip code started off as #1 in the SD County, then added only 12 cases over the next two months (R0 < 1!) and now it looks like we're trying to get to #1 again.

 

[Daniel in SD]

We have a poor track record coming up with vaccines for respiratory viruses.

Mumps, measles, rubella...
The hard vaccines are the ones that haven't been done yet. SARS-CoV-2 is brand new so it may turn out to be easy.

 

[cwerdna]

Indeed about CA.

Certain parts of CA are getting hit hard like Imperial and Riverside counties.
Hard-hit Imperial County sends patients to other counties | CalMatters
Imperial County agrees to close non-essential businesses, parks as COVID-19 cases rise | KTLA
Riverside County reports 730 new coronavirus cases, 14 new deaths
Riverside County's ICU beds are 99% occupied. Hospitals moving into surge plan

Check California at The Path to Zero: Key Metrics For COVID Suppression – Pandemics Explained.

This happened in Orange County:
Orange County health officer who mandated face masks resigns after facing threats and protests at her home
A California county no longer requires masks after former health officer resigns over backlash - CNN

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Gotta say though, on a good and encouraging note, the fatality rate is less than half of what it was 2 months ago. No idea why, just good news.

 

[SageBrush]

Gotta say though, on a good and encouraging note, the fatality rate is less than half of what it was 2 months ago. No idea why, just good news.

I expect that good news may be fleeting if cases continue to rise and the young(er) infections bring it home -- both rather likely.
And hospital census data in the trumper states is past worrisome -- they are a skip and a hop away from crisis mode

 

[cwerdna]

trump declares victory over Covid-19 as US daily cases hit 57,000 and are rising rapidly, and hospitals reach capacity.

trumpers love to re-interpret their leader. Go ahead, I'm curious

Here we go again:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1279487627977252864?s=20

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 8h
Cases, Cases, Cases! If we didn’t test so much and so successfully, we would have very few cases. If you test 40,000,000 people, you are going to have many cases that, without the testing (like other countries), would not show up every night on the Fake Evening News.....

He just doesn't get it. There's the joke about "solving" teen pregnancy. Just don't test.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I expect that good news may be fleeting if cases continue to rise and the young(er) infections bring it home -- both rather likely.
And hospital census data in the trumper states is past worrisome -- they are a skip and a hop away from crisis mode

I hear ya. Still, really hoping you are wrong. I know, Hope is not a strategy.

 

[AZRI11]

Deaths keep dropping. 254 on the 4th, 512 last Saturday and 582 on June 20th. Health crisis continues because of the amount of hospital patients remaining high. Deaths are less of a concern.
I know this sounds cruel to say but as long as ICU'S aren't at 85% or more capacity we shouldn't roll back stages of opening.
United States Coronavirus: 2,935,770 Cases and 132,318 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[AZRI11]

Rhode Island was top 5 America for covid deaths per million. Top 5 for the world probably. Now it's almost completely gone, everything is just about open (stage 3) so many people at the beaches "packed" a few weeks now of this and cases/deaths keep dropping. My aunt (who is in a nursing home) currently has covid she's 86 years old. Just under two weeks now. Fever for a couple of days, otherwise she's fine, and she has a very weak heart. Staff is very surprised she's o.k.

 

[SMAlset]

No shame apparently felt by this older woman throwing a mask tantrum at a Vegas Costco to the point of sitting on the concrete floor of the store like some little stubborn child when she wasn’t getting her way. Notice she has a mask with her. She also lies and says she has a medical condition but later says she doesn’t. Wonder if her kids or family or friends/business associates are mortified to see such childish behavior from her. So cringe worthy. I would disown my mother if she acted like this in private and especially in public.

The Costco staff were so nice and calm handling her. They must be parents of toddlers.

'Costco Karen' Goes Viral After She Throws Temper Tantrum From Being Asked to Wear Face Mask

 

[renim]

Is it fair to say this applies only to respirators and tight-fitting masks (like N95), and not to surgical masks which leak anyway?

Very true, which is why if wearing a mask is worth doing, then it worth doing right with a respirator.

But faces are different, due to fit and comfort, we (old site) supplied disposable masks (p2 respirator) from 2 differing suppliers and a reusable (silicone) from a third.

But even so, ventilation is always ascendant over PPE as a control measure.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I think you're letting your politics blur your vision. I certainly don't see any signs of slowdown. We may not be as bad as AZ, TX, and FL but it's pretty bad. Luckily we are rolling back some of the "reopening" but it's going to get ugly here too.
View attachment 560538
My zip code started off as #1 in the SD County, then added only 12 cases over the next two months (R0 < 1!) and now it looks like we're trying to get to #1 again.
View attachment 560539

@SageBrush (you won't see this because you have me on ignore due to my preferences on safety glasses...lol)...just FYI.

Expect some very large numbers from California on Monday & Tuesday. On that day, it will be best to refer to the epi curve for LA & California to see what is happening.

http://dashboard.publichealth.lacounty.gov/covid19_surveillance_dashboard/

https://twitter.com/lapublichealth/status/1279438334578720774?s=20

 

[renim]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.25.20079251v1.full.pdf

Key predictors of attending hospital with COVID19: An association study from the COVID Symptom Tracker App in 2,618,948 individuals

obviously, ' study has a number of limitations. First, all the data collected is self-reported, and questions on comorbidities were somewhat simplified to ease reporting at large scale on an app. Both symptoms and test results may be subject to reporting bias. Secondly, the sampling using an app will under-represent individuals without smartphone devices, including older participants, and is likely to under-represent those severely affected by the disease. Additionally, we are reporting visits, rather than admissions, to hospital; we do not know how many visits resulted in an inpatient stay. While we believe that our sampling provides useful information about the risk of most symptomatic infection, it will not provide insight into very severe disease as the most unwell patients may not record hospitalisation due to incapacitation or even death.'

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It's also hilarious that someone is still advocating for zero cases before restarting life again. In what universe is that possible short of a full-on totalitarian state?

Apparently you've been driven off your rocker by purchasing FSD (I sympathize, it's enough to drive anyone nuts).

Opinion: FSD, Why you should not buy it.

Anyway, I'm not advocating for zero cases "before restarting," I'm advocating for a goal of getting to zero cases as quickly as possible with as much reopening as that allows. And it's a completely reasonable goal, although some people insist it is not. Obviously it won't stay at zero, but it certainly can be kept extremely low with virtually no community transmission (close contacts & travel related cases only). At that level, reopening schools and returning to normal is basically no issue - you'd only have to deal with very localized shutdowns (possibly large sections of cities for short periods), but that's ok. Much different than everyone restricting their movement nationwide.

Others agree with me.

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1279602354703273984?s=20

 

[Dave EV]

Gotta say though, on a good and encouraging note, the fatality rate is less than half of what it was 2 months ago. No idea why, just good news.

Well, are you looking at total death rate or case fatality rate or infection fatality rate? Keep in mind that if you're looking at the case fatality rate, early on, we weren't testing nearly enough to catch all cases, so case numbers were higher then.

Deaths keep dropping. 254 on the 4th, 512 last Saturday and 582 on June 20th. Health crisis continues because of the amount of hospital patients remaining high. Deaths are less of a concern.
I know this sounds cruel to say but as long as ICU'S aren't at 85% or more capacity we shouldn't roll back stages of opening.
United States Coronavirus: 2,935,770 Cases and 132,318 Deaths - Worldometer

This viewpoint seems to ignore those who get sick and have long-lasting complications that don't require hospitalization. Unfortunately, we have little to no data in this area, but we do know that many people are suffering from long-term effects of COVID-19.

 

[eevee-fan]

OT, but anyone watching 12 Monkeys on Hulu?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Deaths keep dropping. 254 on the 4th, 512 last Saturday and 582 on June 20th.

I would not put any stock in any numbers reported for the 4th, 5th, and 6th, for deaths. There are reporting delays due to the holiday weekend. The 7th should have an large number.

Simpson's Paradox! (Fancy way of saying focusing on the whole picture misses the trends in individual states.)

Deaths are clearly rising in AZ, TX, and FL (see attached). FL has stopped reporting their health metrics (nothing for the week June 27th), so that's also a bad sign. Guess they are too heinous for public disclosure.

AZ (epi):

FL (epi):

TX (by report):