Coronavirus

[HG Wells]

Our Glorious Stable Genius has solved the pandemic problem.

Stop all funding.



Trump wanted to ‘slow’ coronavirus testing — and is now trying to block testing funding from stimulus bill:

Trump wanted to ‘slow’ coronavirus testing — and is now trying to block testing funding from stimulus bill: report

Edit: Also similar story at The Hill
Trump administration seeking to block funding for CDC, contact tracing and testing in new relief bill: report

 

[SageBrush]

Stop all funding.

I am going to have to take a shower after this post since it appears as though I am defending trump/GOP but a fairer reading would be:

No additional funding to CDC or for TTQ

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It also looks like he's using the mean onset-to-death instead of just using his gamma distribution fit. Not sure how much difference that would make.

I hadn't realized that. Seems like a statistical model would be better.

He's got a plot of CFR over time but I can't tell if his model is using a changing CFR over time?

I think he takes the case line data and plugs that into the age-stratified CFR, so the deaths should be weighted by population infected. But he's not accounting for improvements in treatment and other reasons CFR might have improved. However, I think his fitting data is mostly more recent, so not sure how much of an issue that is.

 

[madodel]

I am going to have to take a shower after this post since it appears as though I am defending trump/GOP but a fairer reading would be:

No additional funding to CDC or for TTQ

Trump plan to end COVID 19.

Lie that all the cases are because of increased testing.
Remove COVID19 data from CDC.
Stop funding testing.
The virus disappears.

 

[dfwatt]

Trump plan to end COVID 19.

Lie that all the cases are because of increased testing.
Remove COVID19 data from CDC.
Stop funding testing.
The virus disappears.

Yep he's our stable genius alright.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Canadian federal government does not want athletes crossing the border with the US during the pandemic.

Toronto Blue Jays Website - 2.5 hours ago: Blue Jays denied approval to play in Toronto

 

[HG Wells]

Trump plan to end COVID 19.

Lie that all the cases are because of increased testing.
Remove COVID19 data from CDC.
Stop funding testing.
The virus disappears.

You left one off.

Steal ONE BILLION DOLLARS !

 

[SageBrush]

I follow the Florida Covid-19/Hospital data

Yesterday they reported 996 ICU beds available
Today they reported 441 new hospital admits and 1,249 ICU beds available

Unless they discharged/killed off ~ 35% of the patients in the ICU yesterday this likely means they are digging into their reserves. The famous Florida transparency is a thing of the past.

 

[madodel]

You left one off.

Steal ONE BILLION DOLLARS !

What? Only "ONE"?

 

[SageBrush]

The breakeven then follows from the comparison
5*(1-P) = 4
P = 0.2
and (1-p)^4 = 0.2

p = ~ 34%

Below is a table that calculates test savings based on the daily cohort test positivity percentage 'p'
I do not know of any place in the USA today that would not benefit from batch testing ... presuming that clerical errors do not crop up. I'm actually surprised that countries like S. Korea that test ~ 10k a day but only find a dozen positives do not batch, and at even much higher batch numbers. Such is the advantage of PCR.

 

[SageBrush]

The Guardian has an outstanding synopsis of Covid-19, USA style at
'The virus doesn't care about excuses': US faces terrifying autumn as Covid-19 surges

Now, four months into the pandemic, with test results delayed, contact tracing scarce, protective equipment dwindling and emergency rooms once again filling, the United States finds itself in a fight for its life: swamped by partisanship, mistrustful of science, engulfed in mask wars and led by a president whose incompetence is rivaled only by his indifference to Americans’ suffering.

 

[renim]

Why batch? A test is about $20 + labour.
(Australian figures, 10 million tests is $300 million Aud. Is approx $200 million USD.)

How Australia ended up with 10 million more COVID-19 tests, with the Government barely lifting a finger

 

[SageBrush]

Why batch? A test is about $20 + labour.
(Australian figures, 10 million tests is $300 million Aud. Is approx $200 million USD.)

That would be one reason.
The much more important reason is shorter turn around time. At least in the land of 'Merkins you can rest assured that hordes of people are not isolating until they are notified of test positivity. Quest diagnostics says they take a week to report a test result. By that time the person is mostly done with the infection if they have stayed in the community.

 

[NikolaACDC]

First it's party time

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-sh...ople-are-hosting-parties-spread-covid-1518875

and then you bring home 'gifts'

https://nypost.com/2020/07/17/florida-dad-got-covid-19-from-son-who-refused-to-wear-a-mask/

"“He always assured me, ‘Don’t worry, mom. I’m doing everything right, relax, chill.’"
"Zymet’s stepson did wear the mask while at his friend’s house, but took it off at some point, she said.
The decision ultimately led to four relatives – including the couple’s 14-year-old son and 6-year-old daughter — being infected with the coronavirus. Zymet’s husband, John Place, is a 42-year-old diabetic whom doctors say has a higher risk of serious illness because he’s also overweight."
"Weeks later, Zymet and the couple’s three children have recovered, but Place remains in an intensive care unit at Westside Regional Medical Center in Plantation, where he had been on a ventilator for two weeks."
------------------
Wonder if he's still relaxed and chill.
It is very difficult as someone who 'believes in the hoax' to imagine what goes on in these people's minds.
The compulsive urge and need to socialize disregarding their and theirs' safety.
I don't have a problem with social distancing, probably because I don't really like people ;-)

 

[eevee-fan]

Why batch? A test is about $20 + labour.
(Australian figures, 10 million tests is $300 million Aud. Is approx $200 million USD.)

Some places are not able to get the chemicals (re-agent). When there is none, price would go up if people are really competing to get it.

 

[SageBrush]

I don't have a problem with social distancing, probably because I don't really like people ;-)

I resemble that remark.
It actually occurred to me more than once but I have refrained from mentioning it to my wife because I know what will follow. My daughter was the most astute when she stared at me thoughtfully for a few moments during one of our weekly family video chats and said "Covid-19 has not really affected you much at all, has it Dad ?"

 

[renim]

Some places are not able to get the chemicals (re-agent). When there is none, price would go up if people are really competing to get it.

Thats very sensible, but is that still the case?

 

[renim]

That would be one reason.
The much more important reason is shorter turn around time. At least in the land of 'Merkins you can rest assured that hordes of people are not isolating until they are notified of test positivity. Quest diagnostics says they take a week to report a test result. By that time the person is mostly done with the infection if they have stayed in the community.

Wouldnt it add more delay? A second test would then be required to drill down to who actually is/was infected.

On second thoughts, if they halve the number of test would that improve turn around time?

 

[eevee-fan]

Thats very sensible, but is that still the case?

I think so, probably depends on the area.

 

[SageBrush]

Wouldnt it add more delay? A second test would then be required to drill down to who actually is/was infected.

No