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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Quick report from Sweden. I would estimate that <1% wear masks in public and officials still don’t recommend it. Restaurants with outdoor seating are filling up with beer drinkers and most tables inside with groups also. Still numbers are declining rapidly. Latest government report says R_t=0.58.
Probably it’s a combination of some form of immunity, people avoiding the most superspreader events, immunity among the more social people, low density housing, low density commuting, people being even less social than normally, maybe genetics etc.
Hope the world does not try to copy us, but maybe learn something from us. If you want to escape virus lockdowns, Sweden is a great place to visit right now, go to the gym, get a haircut, drink some beers.
Probably it’s a combination of some form of immunity, people avoiding the most superspreader events, immunity among the more social people, low density housing, low density commuting, people being even less social than normally, maybe genetics etc.
Hope the world does not try to copy us, but maybe learn something from us. If you want to escape virus lockdowns, Sweden is a great place to visit right now, go to the gym, get a haircut, drink some beers.
Ron is tremendous isn't he? There was a reason I gave him one of the very 1st Moron Awards. He's right there with the Orange Moron. He's just doing a terrific job!
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
DeSantis opines that the only 'significant' Covid complication is death. That in itself is idiocy, but he has still not caught on to the notion that infected people infect others. Didn't he close bars ? Seems to me that bars can stay open by the same "reasoning." Just restrict to under a certain age and weight. Although that is not really required. After all, he is one of the 'freedom' people. If a fat, old guy wants to risk Covid to get a beer and hang out with his buddies, who is Santis to say no ?
Time for that bozo to get another moron of morons award
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This will be interesting to follow. If you really have returned to indoor dining and drinking, etc., no mask wearing, etc. (see a post earlier that sort of contradicts this as being the state of affairs in Sweden), I would expect a new rise in cases in the next month or so, or in the fall.
I doubt that Sweden has enough infection to provide sufficient herd immunity to prevent a wave of infections (15% nationwide?), but perhaps in summertime, mostly outside gathering conditions, this partial population immunity is sufficient to keep Rt less than 1. There is that T-cell unknown as well...maybe there is a little more immunity than thought...but I doubt it is much higher.
I definitely could see complacency become a problem here.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Sorry Anti-Maskers, Delta Air Lines Is Onto You | One Mile at a Time
Delta just became my preferred airline.
"Those passengers who do have a condition should show up at the airport early to complete a “Clearance-to-Fly” process prior to departure, which could take over an hour. This process will include a virtual consultation with a healthcare professional, who will consider your circumstances, and could make exceptions on a case-by-case basis.
Any passenger found to be making false claims about a disability or health conditions in order to obtain an exemption may have travel privileges on all Delta flights suspended for as long as the airline is requiring passengers to wear face masks."
Delta just became my preferred airline.
"Those passengers who do have a condition should show up at the airport early to complete a “Clearance-to-Fly” process prior to departure, which could take over an hour. This process will include a virtual consultation with a healthcare professional, who will consider your circumstances, and could make exceptions on a case-by-case basis.
Any passenger found to be making false claims about a disability or health conditions in order to obtain an exemption may have travel privileges on all Delta flights suspended for as long as the airline is requiring passengers to wear face masks."
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
We probably need about 3 million tests a day now with adequate TAT and follow up to *quickly* get a good handle on this now without significant behavioral changes.
The good news is the continued capacity increases for testing etc. (and hopefully TAT improvements) will likely effectively suppress future outbreaks if we can ever get daily positive cases below 10k cases nationwide. I think the balance could finally tip around there. We’ll see. Getting there seems like it could be a problem.
This has definitely morphed into a nationwide game of whack-a-mole now. Kind of fun (I guess?) if you are into that sort of thing. Other than all the deaths and ventilators.
Not exactly my idea of summer fun, but it seems that 8/10 Americans or so are for it.
The good news is the continued capacity increases for testing etc. (and hopefully TAT improvements) will likely effectively suppress future outbreaks if we can ever get daily positive cases below 10k cases nationwide. I think the balance could finally tip around there. We’ll see. Getting there seems like it could be a problem.
This has definitely morphed into a nationwide game of whack-a-mole now. Kind of fun (I guess?) if you are into that sort of thing. Other than all the deaths and ventilators.
Not exactly my idea of summer fun, but it seems that 8/10 Americans or so are for it.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Seems like we should just do this nationwide and then we would have a highly predictive model with a 2-3 week lead time. Still not fast enough to take actions to save lots of lives, but at least it is better than waiting for deaths to show up!
Basically if you have the individual case data (age, onset date, etc.) for every positive test, you can predict very well what will be future mortality based on past results.
https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1284539070203355136?s=21
mbevand/florida-covid19-line-list-data
Or, we can just listen to EthicalSkeptic, RebelACole, Justin Hart, Hold2LLC and the rest of the bizarre gas-lighting echo chamber on Twitter, and insist deaths are not increasing.
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I guess he doesn’t think healthy asymptomatic individuals can spread the virus.
It's July. Swedes are now on like a 6 week vacation, frolicking naked in thr forest by their cottages or whatnot.
The big cities are likely empty.
Dr. J
Active Member
FDA approves pooled coronavirus testing in hopes of boosting testing capacity
"Quest Diagnostics will now be able to group up to four samples together and will only test them individually if the batch comes back positive. This approach — which has been used in Germany, China, Israel, and South Africa, among other countries — can help save valuable time and resources during the pandemic."
"Politico notes, however, that this strategy applies to places where prevalence of the virus is low, and the chances of having a batch where nothing is detected are higher. Places experiencing more severe outbreaks, on the other hand, are still better off with individual testing."
"Quest Diagnostics will now be able to group up to four samples together and will only test them individually if the batch comes back positive. This approach — which has been used in Germany, China, Israel, and South Africa, among other countries — can help save valuable time and resources during the pandemic."
"Politico notes, however, that this strategy applies to places where prevalence of the virus is low, and the chances of having a batch where nothing is detected are higher. Places experiencing more severe outbreaks, on the other hand, are still better off with individual testing."
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
He's got a plot of CFR over time but I can't tell if his model is using a changing CFR over time?
It also looks like he's using the mean onset-to-death instead of just using his gamma distribution fit. Not sure how much difference that would make.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
They should do a standardized survey with each test and calculate the probability of tests coming back positive relative to the survey question answers. I would not even bother wasting tests on people who have pneumonia and loss of taste or smell, just mix all their mucus together and tell them they're all positive. That would be a good way to eliminate false negatives!
Are they naked raking the forest floor of all those combustible leaves?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I was thinking about the prevalence threshold when this idea first circulated. If the batch of 4 is positive then 5 tests are performed instead of 4; and if the batch is negative then 1 test was performed instead of 4. If test positivity likelihood is p percent then the likelihood of a batch of 4 negatives is (1-p)^4 = P
The breakeven then follows from the comparison
5*(1-P) = 4
P = 0.2
and (1-p)^4 = 0.2
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