Coronavirus

[EVNow]

Faulty tests, red tape let coronavirus spread quietly for weeks in Washington, experts say

The poorly functioning kits to test for SARS-CoV2 — the virus that causes the disease known as COVID-19 — required the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to manufacture new kits that only began arriving in labs late last week. The delay meant that novel coronavirus and its spread largely went undetected for weeks until new kits became available, public health officials and infectious disease experts said.

“I think it’s fair to say that the American response has been slow in terms of rolling out testing,” said Dr. Caroline Buckee, an epidemiologist and associate director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University.

Aside from the delay in getting functioning kits to labs, coronavirus testing has been saddled with restrictive guidelines for who can be tested under the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) “emergency use authorization” for labs allowed to conduct the assessments. The restrictions mean only those patients who meet specific criteria as a “person under investigation” can be tested, such as those who recently traveled to Wuhan, China, where the epidemic started, or those with certain symptoms who came into close contact with someone confirmed to have been exposed to the virus.​

 

[linux-works]

Too bad cell phones don't come with thermal IR sensors by default :Þ That'd be a really cool health feature, if someone using FaceID could have the phone simultaneously measure their temperature.

its expensive but it exists (better than you wanted)

https://www.amazon.com/CAT-PHONES-Waterproof-Smartphone-integrated/dp/B07DT7LBSK

and

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01JO9ZF3Y/

(I'm actually tempted to consider the last one; it used to be very expensive but it seems its being EOLd and discounted. $300 for a flir camera, depending on its resolution, isn't too bad; and I think this one overlays visible with IR.)

sorry for OT.

 

[Yuri_G]

TWO strains of the killer coronavirus are spreading, study claims | Daily Mail Online

It does confirm my own intel previously.

Looks like Iran, Italy and USA has presence of the more hostile strain from the localized CFR data. I originally thought nal though Iran has the oldest more mellow strain from asia.

Germany probably had the milder strain. But we need another 2 week to see how the italian strain fare in Germany now that it has landed everywhere in europe at once.

Daily Mail is a rag. Check any of their reporting on Tesla for proof.

 

[KarenRei]

Daily Mail is a rag. Check any of their reporting on Tesla for proof.

It is. That said, there is a legitimate study here, so we can check that out - with the understanding that any single study is not a consensus view.

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

From the study, we see (L = severe strain; S = mild strain) (WH = Wuhan):

I dunno, apart from L being more common in Wuhan, the locations look pretty mixed to me.

Also, I have no clue why one would assume that Italy has the "bad strain". I forget, has any young person died in Italy? Last I saw it was all old people. And not an impressive rate vs. how widespread the infection appears to be.

As for the study itself: there could be some truth to it, but there's also more to a virus than just "L strain" and "S strain" which could affect virulence. Not only have they not run tests on live subjects, as far as I noticed in a quick scan-over, they've not even attempted to check how severe the specific individuals' cases were.

The paper looks interesting, but also doesn't look conclusive. That said, we absolutely should expect severe selective pressure on this virus for mild strains. When people start dropping dead, people notice and quarantines get imposed. When it looks just like a flu, nobody notices and it spreads.

 

[Vinny809]

Amazon employee and neighbors of infected person in NYC has contracted CV

 

[Causalien]

It is. That said, there is a legitimate study here, so we can check that out - with the understanding that any single study is not a consensus view.

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

From the study, we see (L = severe strain; S = mild strain) (WH = Wuhan):

View attachment 517870

I dunno, apart from L being more common in Wuhan, the locations look pretty mixed to me.

Also, I have no clue why one would assume that Italy has the "bad strain". I forget, has any young person died in Italy? Last I saw it was all old people. And not an impressive rate vs. how widespread the infection appears to be.

As for the study itself: there could be some truth to it, but there's also more to a virus than just "L strain" and "S strain" which could affect virulence. Not only have they not run tests on live subjects, as far as I noticed in a quick scan-over, they've not even attempted to check how severe the specific individuals' cases were.

The paper looks interesting, but also doesn't look conclusive. That said, we absolutely should expect severe selective pressure on this virus for mild strains. When people start dropping dead, people notice and quarantines get imposed. When it looks just like a flu, nobody notices and it spreads.

I am specifically referring to this clade: auspice

Iran has no data since it's an authoritarian religious dictatorship. So we can only assume.

As for USA. boy, it has all of the strains.

 

[linux-works]

Amazon employee and neighbors of infected person in NYC has contracted CV

this is not the time to be a contractor; much better to have full-time benefits.

(oh, wait.)

 

[EVNow]

Why do we need testing ?

Matt Stoller on Twitter

Just spoke with ER doc who say he's seeing cases he's 99% sure are #coronavirus. Negative for flu, recent travel, work in airports. Not allowed to test. Patients return to work because they can't take time off w/out a firm diagnosis. Other ER docs seeing the same thing.​

 

[X Fan]

Why do we need testing ?

Matt Stoller on Twitter

Just spoke with ER doc who say he's seeing cases he's 99% sure are #coronavirus. Negative for flu, recent travel, work in airports. Not allowed to test. Patients return to work because they can't take time off w/out a firm diagnosis. Other ER docs seeing the same thing.​

Some of this is fear mongering and political posturing.

There are so many viruses circulating in the winter that it’s a real stretch to conclude they are all the coronavirus.

My older son that lives in North Carolina had all the symptoms in November. Conclusion: was a bad virus.

 

[Causalien]

If you look at the increase in death rate. You can see that death rate increases suddenly in a 2 week interval. Suggesting events where a massive amount of people got infected 2 weeks prior at the same place in a super spreader event. And the newly infected spread out to cause the next event.

But no such correlation can be seen from detected case as that has to do with government ramp up of testing. However, death is less dependent on testing capabilities.

If you extrapolate to the next mass death event, we are looking at March 12th.

 

[EVNow]

Some of this is fear mongering and political posturing.

I know doctors are freaking out. You can check twitter.

I'd not call it "fear mongering and political posturing" by individual doctors reporting from the ground level.

Infact if someone has flu-like symptoms, but negative for Flu - there is probably a good chance of CV and should definitely be tested.

Washington State could see explosion in coronavirus cases, study says

Frustrated by the lack of testing resulting from the problem with the CDC-developed kit, the Seattle Flu Study began using an in-house developed test to look for Covid-19 in samples from people who had flu-like symptoms but who had tested negative for flu. That work — permissible because it was research — uncovered the Snohomish County teenager.​

 

[MD70]

Get Real

This is a good article, I hope mass testing can begin quickly in the US.

 

[copyhacker]

Daily Mail is a rag. Check any of their reporting on Tesla for proof.

Or just check the presence of the totally unnecessary trigger word “killer” in the headline.

 

[SageBrush]

This article is interesting, since it focuses on arguments over vaccine cost containment
Congress strikes a deal on bipartisan $8.3B coronavirus package

They would do better to focus on funding testing, isolation and quarantine.

 

[SageBrush]

Infact if someone has flu-like symptoms, but negative for Flu - there is probably a good chance of CV .

BS

Would you greatly mind sticking to WHO/CDC instead of polluting the thread with your paranoia ?

 

[SageBrush]

Why do we need testing ?

Matt Stoller on Twitter

Just spoke with ER doc who say he's seeing cases he's 99% sure are #coronavirus. Negative for flu, recent travel, work in airports. Not allowed to test. Patients return to work because they can't take time off w/out a firm diagnosis. Other ER docs seeing the same thing.​

Look up the test sensitivity for the test commonly used by ERs for Influenza.
If that ER doc was not misquoted then he is an idiot

 

[EVNow]

BS

Would you greatly mind sticking to WHO/CDC instead of polluting the thread with your paranoia ?

Look up the test sensitivity for the test commonly used by ERs for Influenza.
If that ER doc was not misquoted then he is an idiot

Paranoia ? I call it prudent to test if someone has flu-like symptoms. Esp. when they test negative for flu.

Do you get anything by not testing ? Apparently you are all for "don't test, don' tell" - for no particular reason.

 

[KarenRei]

Paranoia ? I call it prudent to test if someone has flu-like symptoms. Esp. when they test negative for flu.

Do you get anything by not testing ? Apparently you are all for "don't test, don' tell" - for no particular reason.

Question: how do you "test negative for flu"? Flus and colds are caused by many different strains of viruses, from three different broad groups of viruses (influenzaviruses, rhinoviruses, and coronaviruses).

 

[X Fan]

I know doctors are freaking out. You can check twitter.

I'd not call it "fear mongering and political posturing" by individual doctors reporting from the ground level.

Infact if someone has flu-like symptoms, but negative for Flu - there is probably a good chance of CV and should definitely be tested.

Washington State could see explosion in coronavirus cases, study says

Frustrated by the lack of testing resulting from the problem with the CDC-developed kit, the Seattle Flu Study began using an in-house developed test to look for Covid-19 in samples from people who had flu-like symptoms but who had tested negative for flu. That work — permissible because it was research — uncovered the Snohomish County teenager.​

Look I know plenty of doctors too, both in my community and in my family. Like anything, there is a range of emotions in the medical community with many saying this is overblown (that's the case in my family).

FWIW: the world missed an opportunity by not instituting a complete travel blanket to/from China and then Korea. Now, it is too late. Sadly, there wasn't strong enough leadership to make it happen and of course politics reared it's ugly head by some criticizing even the modest travel ban to China.

At this point, the Coronovirus is here to stay and although it may be subdued in the Northern Hemisphere by spring, I don't doubt that it will rear up in the Southern Hemisphere. Next year, rinse and repeat unless a proper vaccine is developed and promulgated to all citizens (with the anti-vacciners forced to take the shot).

btw: there are many that politicize & criticize the pharma industry but....without them the world would really be in a pickle.

 

[EVNow]

Question: how do you "test negative for flu"? Flus and colds are caused by many different strains of viruses, from three different broad groups of viruses (influenzaviruses, rhinoviruses, and coronaviruses).

Rapid Diagnostic Testing for Influenza: Information for Clinical Laboratory Directors | CDC