Dr. J
Active Member
That sounds reasonable, but what has me concerned is the drop in Treasury yields since the start of 2020. Merely a continuation of the 40-year trend, or harbinger of the End Times? 10 Year Treasury Rate - 54 Year Historical Chart
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Regarding air & surface contamination of SARSCoV2 ...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762692
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762692
Patient C, whose samples were collected before routine cleaning, had positive results, with 13 (87%) of 15 room sites (including air outlet fans) and 3 (60%) of 5 toilet sites (toilet bowl, sink, and door handle) returning positive results
I’m supposed to fly down to Florida with my family and go on a 5 day cruise in the Caribbean in a few weeks. Does the TMC hive mind think I’m crazy to go? 
Dr. J
Active Member
Your risk of infection is extremely low (possibly infinitesimal), but I wouldn't do it. My risk aversion right now is twitchy and elevated.I’m supposed to fly down to Florida with my family and go on a 5 day cruise in the Caribbean in a few weeks. Does the TMC hive mind think I’m crazy to go?
Edit: Oh, and I'm not a "real" doctor.
This.
We are seeing school and business closures because just a single individual either tested positive or was exposed to a positive contact. (Twitter told employees to just all work from home even though none employee with a confirmed positive test or exposure). Conferences are cancelled or delayed out of caution. Businesses are restricting travel. Costco’s shipment of hygiene products are continually being sold out in my area even though there were no cases.
As EVNow says, what would the response be when the confirmed number of cases and deceased keep on growing in a community? We already know right now is well past containment stage. We should all take it as fact that it’s spreading under the radar. The way our minds work is we become more sensitive each time a new case is confirmed near where we live.
It’s one thing to read about cases thousands of miles away in Seattle. It’s another to know there was a community acquired case even 1 hour away from home.
IMHO, until the population has come to an agreement to just live with it and not be wary of it, the stock market has a long way to go down.
I’m supposed to fly down to Florida with my family and go on a 5 day cruise in the Caribbean in a few weeks. Does the TMC hive mind think I’m crazy to go?
Can we make a bet who will get infected first on TMC?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Diamond Princess had 706 confirmed cases of which 6 died. We are just now learning about the Princess cruise to Mexico which had atleast 2 confirmed cases (one died).I’m supposed to fly down to Florida with my family and go on a 5 day cruise in the Caribbean in a few weeks. Does the TMC hive mind think I’m crazy to go?
Unless you enjoy being imprisoned in a petridish, I'd not go.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Expect to see a lot of cases from next week - in Seattle area.
UW Medicine ramps up new coronavirus lab test; Gates Foundation pledges $5M for detection
UW Medicine ramps up new coronavirus lab test; Gates Foundation pledges $5M for detection
The University of Washington School of Medicine is moving forward with a new clinical lab test for the COVID-19 coronavirus, and plans to be able to test up to 1,500 samples per day by the end of the week.
I don't know, what? China's doing fine with policies such as having businesses take employees' temperatures when they arrive, wiping down frequently-touched surfaces between use, mandating masks, etc. Any country can do these sort of things.
People don't employ the same sort of policies on the small scale that they do on the big scale. When it's just a couple cases, it's worth it to put heavy emphasis on containment of those cases. If you get to community spread, that's not viable, and instead you switch to reducing R0 to <1 via behavioral alteration.
I'm not American, but I hear there is magic over there, a $1 shot of epinephrine (adrenaline) becomes a $650-$700 EpiPen.
I have full confidence in the motivation to provide an excuse to buy the more expensive option, hypothetically, how can procurement justify a $50 test (mostly good enough) when a better $500 test is available?
(or to put it another way, who wants to tell a jury that a $50 test was almost good enough despite the death of their loved one, when a $500 dollar test would've caught it.)
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Japan has closed down schools, offices. Might postpone Olympics.
US doesn't do things like China does. We have people in the government here that need to get reelected (including local school boards). Businesses are afraid of legal cases or reputation. If there are 10 more Amazon employee cases, people will buy from Amazon less (even if none of the employees are in the warehouse).
Oh - I just got my daily coronavirus mail from the school district. They are suggesting, if parents want, they can keep the children at home and will be excused.
China’s situation is unique because of their culture and authoritarian style government structure.
The same drastic measures would be difficult to implement in a free county like the US with strong civil rights. I already can guess some people at work who won’t adhere to any lifestyle restrictions unless it’s a personal family member that was affected.
The same drastic measures would be difficult to implement in a free county like the US with strong civil rights. I already can guess some people at work who won’t adhere to any lifestyle restrictions unless it’s a personal family member that was affected.
Latest update in CA: That ship you refer to is now being docked into SF tomorrow with 62 passengers who were previously on the Mexico cruise with the now deceased individual.
Let’s see how the US handles this versus how Japan handled their cruise ship incident.
why not, perhaps he likes the word Tamiflu...
yes vaccine has a precise meaning, but many people would consider tamiflu as a flu vaccine even though that is technically incorrect.
we probably will end up with some cocktail that improves survival rate for the at risk patients, personally If i was concerned I would start with antimalarials Antimalarial drug confirmed effective on COVID-19 - Xinhua | English.news.cn gin and tonic anyone?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Italy's health system at limit in virus-struck Lombardy
The region of Lombardy is the epicenter of Italy’s outbreak, registering the first positive test of the northern cluster and now counting at least 1,254 of Italy’s 2,036 cases. Alarmingly, 10% of Lombardy’s doctors and nurses cannot work because they tested positive for the virus and are in quarantine, the region’s top health official, Giulio Gallera, said Monday.
With officials expecting Italy’s numbers to continue rising for at least another week, until containment measures begin to show their effect, the health care emergency in Lombardy has reached a crisis point.
Some 9% of people diagnosed with the COVID-19 need intensive care, Borrelli said.
The region of Lombardy is the epicenter of Italy’s outbreak, registering the first positive test of the northern cluster and now counting at least 1,254 of Italy’s 2,036 cases. Alarmingly, 10% of Lombardy’s doctors and nurses cannot work because they tested positive for the virus and are in quarantine, the region’s top health official, Giulio Gallera, said Monday.
With officials expecting Italy’s numbers to continue rising for at least another week, until containment measures begin to show their effect, the health care emergency in Lombardy has reached a crisis point.
Some 9% of people diagnosed with the COVID-19 need intensive care, Borrelli said.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
'
Findings In this single-center case series involving 138 patients with NCIP, 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit and 4.3% died. Presumed human-to-human hospital-associated transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in 41% of patients.
Meaning In this case series in Wuhan, China, NCIP was frequently associated with presumed hospital-related transmission, 26% of patients required intensive care unit treatment, and mortality was 4.3%.'
hmmm, so the human-to-human hospital-associated transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in .....
I would posit that health care workers are really the vulnerable link in the system.
I’m supposed to fly down to Florida with my family and go on a 5 day cruise in the Caribbean in a few weeks. Does the TMC hive mind think I’m crazy to go?
Meh, the vast majority of the passengers have probably cancelled, so you're probably fine
Realistically, though, there's 314 cruise ships in the world, making new cruises every several days-to-weeks, and thusfar, only 2 cruises have had problems with the disease. Yes, sick ships can and do happen, with all kinds of diseases. But unless you have a preexisting condition / are old and frail, or have a specific reason to fear the time lost to quarantine... I wouldn't let fear rule my life. Personally.
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