Coronavirus

[Fact Checking]

Unfortunately Italy and France are still not past the early exponential phase:

# "Italy" daily new infections log:
Feb 20: 0 new cases, 1 total cases ( +0%)
Feb 21: 16 new cases, 17 total cases (+88.8%)
Feb 22: 59 new cases, 76 total cases (+76.6%) #
Feb 24: 149 new cases, 225 total cases (+65.9%) ##
Feb 25: 97 new cases, 322 total cases (+30.0%) #
Feb 26: 131 new cases, 453 total cases (+28.8%) ##
Feb 27: 208 new cases, 661 total cases (+31.4%) ####
Feb 28: 246 new cases, 907 total cases (+27.0%) ####
Feb 29: 247 new cases, 1154 total cases (+21.3%) ####
Mar 01: 572 new cases, 1726 total cases (+33.1%) ###########
Mar 02: 354 new cases, 2080 total cases (+17.0%) #######
Mar 03: 495 new cases, 2575 total cases (+19.2%) #########
Mar 04: 605 new cases, 3180 total cases (+19.0%) ############
Mar 05: 784 new cases, 3964 total cases (+19.7%) ###############
Mar 06: 821 new cases, 4785 total cases (+17.1%) ################
Mar 07: 1249 new cases, 6034 total cases (+20.6%) ########################

Italy has shown a good chance for containment 2-3 days ago, but has grown again yesterday. The additional containment measures announced yesterday and today will certainly help.

The outbreak in France is still growing:

# "France" daily new infections log:
Feb 24: 0 new cases, 10 total cases ( +0%)
Feb 25: 2 new cases, 12 total cases (+15.3%)
Feb 26: 4 new cases, 16 total cases (+23.5%)
Feb 27: 20 new cases, 36 total cases (+54.0%) #
Feb 28: 19 new cases, 55 total cases (+33.9%) #
Feb 29: 43 new cases, 98 total cases (+43.4%) ##
Mar 01: 31 new cases, 129 total cases (+23.8%) #
Mar 02: 61 new cases, 190 total cases (+31.9%) ###
Mar 03: 21 new cases, 211 total cases ( +9.9%) #
Mar 04: 73 new cases, 284 total cases (+25.6%) ####
Mar 05: 138 new cases, 422 total cases (+32.6%) ########
Mar 06: 190 new cases, 612 total cases (+30.9%) ###########
Mar 07: 337 new cases, 949 total cases (+35.4%) ####################

At this rate both countries are trending to have more than 10,000 patients in the end - larger outbreaks than South Korea.

Yesterday's update was a tiny bit more encouraging, despite the record large absolute numbers increase:

# "Italy" daily new infections log:
Mar 02:   354 new cases,   2080 total cases (+17.0%)  #######
Mar 03:   495 new cases,   2575 total cases (+19.2%)  #########
Mar 04:   605 new cases,   3180 total cases (+19.0%)  ############
Mar 05:   784 new cases,   3964 total cases (+19.7%)  ###############
Mar 06:   821 new cases,   4785 total cases (+17.1%)  ################
Mar 07:  1249 new cases,   6034 total cases (+20.6%)  ########################
Mar 08:  1499 new cases,   7533 total cases (+19.8%)  #############################

# "France" daily new infections log:
Mar 01:    31 new cases,    129 total cases (+23.8%)  #
Mar 02:    61 new cases,    190 total cases (+31.9%)  ###
Mar 03:    21 new cases,    211 total cases ( +9.9%)  #
Mar 04:    73 new cases,    284 total cases (+25.6%)  ####
Mar 05:   138 new cases,    422 total cases (+32.6%)  ########
Mar 06:   190 new cases,    612 total cases (+30.9%)  ###########
Mar 07:   337 new cases,    949 total cases (+35.4%)  ####################
Mar 08:   260 new cases,   1209 total cases (+21.4%)  ###############

Italy is at least leveling off, and in France the exponent decreased by a lot. It might be a fluke (daily fluctuations are significant), or might be the start of a trend. We'll know more from today's reports as more people might go to see a doctor on a Monday, after the weekend.

Austria too has a significant reduction in the exponent, Switzerland is leveling off after the first spike, while further up north Norway had a big drop down to 9.5%, while Sweden had an increase.

China is by far in the best shape - with new infections dropping below the 0.01% level and Hubei setting a new record low daily infections number - they are 4 weeks ahead in the outbreak.

 

[EVNow]

Italy is at least leveling off,

You have to be a bit more careful about Italy cases. They aren’t testing much - see the very high hospitalization numbers. There was a big jump in deaths too.

 

[EVNow]

While I agree response from u.s gov has been slow and disappointing. I do not believe it's becoming a pandemic in America. we are not going to see a repeat of Italy/S. Korea here in the united states.

I hope we see a repeat of Korea and not of Italy.

 

[EVNow]

China and South Korea would probably not have been able to contain the outbreak so quickly if this was the dominant transmission channel though, South Korea new infections dropped down from a peak rate of 40%-50% to just 3.7% yesterday:

Both China and Korea have done big social distancing actions and in Korea some very aggressive testing/contact tracing early on.

We are still having huge sports events in Seattle!

 

[Fact Checking]

You have to be a bit more careful about Italy cases. They aren’t testing much - see the very high hospitalization numbers. There was a big jump in deaths too.

Yeah, true.

Does anyone know how seriously France is taking it, and how many contact tracing and tests they are doing?

 

[Causalien]

Yeah, true.

Does anyone know how seriously France is taking it, and how many contact tracing and tests they are doing?

Not serious. French numbers are under reported.

 

[Matias]

China's NO2 emissions (which are good proxy for economic activity) have dropped 20% and have not rebounded. NO2 emissions can be measured with satellite data.
Source; Finnish meteorologic institute.

Edit:

Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China

 

[JBRR]

RIP Moon Times

recommend this read - it mirrors my own assumptions.

 

[cwerdna]

Letter from Life Care center.

View attachment 519254

Thanks! I'd missed that post since I don't follow this thread closely.

Some of the same stats are in 'Volatile and unpredictable': Life Care speaks publicly for the first time since COVID-19 outbreak. It (from March 7th) also mentions:
"Life Care Center was provided 45 test kits on Thursday – there are currently more than 60 residents in the building. They are awaiting results of those tests. Staff have not been tested, though officials would like to test them."

 

[AlexS]

While I agree response from u.s gov has been slow and disappointing. I do not believe it's becoming a pandemic in America. we are not going to see a repeat of Italy/S. Korea here in the united states.

Yes it will, as US done a very poor job. Some states can end-up like Italy.

 

[JBRR]

 

[KarenRei]

On the upside, reports are that COVID-19 has gone into self-quarantine after being exposed to Ted Cruz.

 

[cwerdna]

Yes - this is the real problem now. Everyone is flying blind because US wasted 2 months of advance notice to do exactly nothing.

BTW, I don't know how many of you saw this ... CDC didn't want to test a nurse who is ill after taking care of a known covid patient saying since she was wearing recommended protective equipment, she won't have the corona virus !

The above story has been making the rounds in the media (and isn't the only example in the US w/tested roadblocks) and is mentioned at Survey of Nation’s Frontline Registered Nurses Shows Hospitals Unprepared For COVID-19.

 

[jerry33]

another company I had an interview with (not recently) - I asked them what their telecommute policy was. the hiring manager said something like 'I prefer everyone be here, at the office'. I asked about the occasional time to be home for a apartment maintenance issue or something like that - and he said that would be ok, on the odd occasion.

I didn't like the vibe I was getting so I declined the job.

I wonder if that company is now singing a different tune.

they all BETTER be, for those that *can* work at home. this "I need to WATCH you work" BS is now over. fully over, until the virus gets under control. sitting shoulder to shoulder - that's also now gone.

and if employers force people to be too close - and someone gets very sick - LAWSUIT. yes, seriously. if the employee can't decline, then its on the employer.

this is gonna get ugly. I know silicon valley. the SV of 2020 is just not ready for this. 30 years ago, yes, the work-at-home we-trust-you mentality was in full swing, but last few decades have been highly regressive.

In right-to-work states it won't matter because they have the ability to fire you for no reason and there is no recourse. (e.g. lawsuits won't go anywhere).

 

[cwerdna]

Yes it will, as US done a very poor job. Some states can end-up like Italy.

Indeed. Live updates: Amid coronavirus fears and oil-price drop global markets plunge - CNN says

Italy, the hardest-hit country in Europe with more than 7,300 coronavirus patients and 366 fatalities, has locked down much of the country's north to stop the virus from spreading further. Nearly 15 million people have been affected by the travel restrictions.

While the lockdown only applies to northern Italy, other measures will be applied to the entire country. These include the suspension of schools, university classes, theaters and cinemas, as well as bars, nightclubs, and sports events. Religious ceremonies, including funerals, will also be suspended.

I didn't realize their fatality numbers had gotten that bad.

 

[KarenRei]

I didn't realize their fatality numbers had gotten that bad.

Note the very different "mortality rates" between regions. Which, of course, means that these aren't actually mortality rates, but rather "there's been way more cases in Lombardy and a few other places than they've actually found"; people who end up in the ICU invariably get tested, but people with a mild cold often escape testing. Most of the past cases that were mild will probably never be identified.

We can only hope that they've gotten better at identifying new cases.

 

[Fact Checking]

RIP Moon Times

recommend this read - it mirrors my own assumptions.

Pretty good write-up of the worst-case, but I disagree with this part:

"The Fed is out of policy tools as this isn’t a financial crisis. The economic stimulus will soon hinge on the MMT narrative picking up steam, and Congress passing a relief package that eclipses the multi-trillion dollar stimulus bills we saw during the financial crisis. We’ll see QE and negative rate setting world wide, and it will put more pressure on pensions to find historically uncorrelated assets that could boost returns…however unconventional."​

This could end up being much uglier in reality if Trump loses in November, I fully expect a Republican dominated Fed to intentionally tank any "Democrat economy", and if there's Republican influence in the Senate no meaningful stimulus relief package will be allowed to go through.

The gloves are off, Republicans are committing all the crimes they always accused Democrats of, and to the extent they are even feeling like responding publicly they are hiding behind "both sides are doing this" false equivalence and a near impenetrable right-wing echo chamber media network.

IMO Democrats still have not realized that Republicans are fighting the second American Civil War ...

Anyway, I particularly liked his take on crypto, he is correct that it's not a "safe haven" but a risk asset.

 

[bhzmark]

Nassim Taleb’s application of his Precautionary Principle to Covid is a very good read. Punchlines are:

“Standard individual-scale policy approaches such as isolation [presumably of just the symptomatic], contact tracing and monitoring are rapidly (computationally) overwhelmed in the face of mass infection, and thus also cannot be relied upon to stop a pandemic.

Multiscale population approaches including drastically pruning contact networks using collective boundaries and social behavior change, and community self-monitoring, are essential.

Together, these observations lead to the necessity of a precautionary approach to current and potential pandemic outbreaks that must include constraining mobility patterns in the early stages of an outbreak, especially when little is known about the true parameters of the pathogen.

It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to fail do so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then one in the future.”

Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note — New England Complex Systems Institute

 

[1208]

Only 4 cases in my county Kent so far, but none in my area. We get a lot of European students where I live, who come to learn English, a new batch (+300) every week, from France, Italy and Germany etc. No sign of that stopping. We also have a large elderly population as we are by the sea.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Gates Foundation-backed program will soon be issuing home testing kits for COVID-19 in Seattle – TechCrunch